Daniel Jones Set Up for Success - Will It Work?

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is setup for success with the addition of receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney but can he become relevant in fantasy football? Dan Fornek examines Jones' draft value to see if he can be a breakout performer in 2021.

Given his status as a surprising top-10 pick in the 2019 NFL draft and a relatively successful rookie season, the 2020 season was seen as a make-or-break year for Daniel Jones for many NFL fans. Unfortunately, Jones (and the Giant’s offense as a whole) struggled to take the next step around the second-year signal-caller.

The Giants finished in the bottom-3 of the NFL in total yards per game (299.6), and points per game (17.5) and were the fourth-worst passing offense in yards per game (189.1). Jones can’t be blamed for all of the struggles, but as the team’s starting quarterback he still must shoulder a portion of the blame. The Giants' offense also turned the ball over 22 times (11 interceptions and fumbles) which contributed to their struggles.

Heading into 2021, the Giants' offense needs to take a step forward for them to try and make the playoffs in a very winnable NFC East. To do that, Daniel Jones will have to provide more consistency leading the offense. The ultimate question is: can he do it?

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What Has Jones Shown So Far?

Since being taken as the second quarterback (and sixth overall pick) in 2019, Daniel Jones has shown flashes of being a competent NFL quarterback. Jones has played in 27 of 32 games the past two seasons, compiling an 8-18 record in that time. The following statistics can be found on pro-football-reference.com.

Most people will focus on the discrepancy between the touchdowns in year one and year two, and while it is jarring, there are still some positive takeaways from his second season in the NFL. Jones had relatively the same passing attempts but was able to complete a higher percentage of his passes from the season before. Despite that, Jones threw fewer interceptions than his first season while averaging the same yards per attempt and nearly replicating his passing yard totals. His yards per completion remained consistent and his QBR score actually improved despite the decrease in touchdowns. Ultimately, Jones took more sacks, but that likely has to do with his surrounding cast than anything else.

Through two seasons, Jones has shown the ability to move the football on the ground, although he is far from a dual-threat quarterback. Jones carried the ball 20 more times for an additional 144 yards in his second season. Jones increased his yards per attempt, yards per game, and attempts per game (some of that can be attributed to the loss of Saquon Barkley). More importantly, he did a better job taking care of the ball, reducing his fumbles from 18 to 11 in his second season. While that number is still pretty high, it isn’t absurd given the number of sacks he took (45) and his rushing attempts (65) in year two. An improvement in that area despite the increased opportunities for defenders to knock the ball away can only be seen as a positive.

What Went Wrong in 2020

The Giants began the year by adding Jason Garrett as an offensive coordinator, forcing Jones to learn his second offensive scheme in his second year in the league. There were reasons for optimism given how well Garrett’s Cowboy offenses had performed with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott in prior seasons, but unfortunately, that outcome was short-lived due to a series of unfortunate events.

Unfortunately for Jones’ development, 2020 was a perfect storm of worst-case scenario outcomes. The Giants’ best offensive weapon, Saquon Barkley, went down with a torn ACL during the Giants’ second game after registering just 19 carries for 34 yards and six receptions on nine targets for 60 yards on the season. The rotating cast of secondary options (Wayne Gallman, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman, and Dion Lewis) did their best to pick up the slack, but none of them offered the explosiveness or versatility in the former second overall pick. In the remaining 14 games, the Giants’ running back group combined for 285 carries for 1,207 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 50 receptions on 71 targets for 318 yards and two additional scores. With Barkley’s explosive playmaking missing, teams were able to force Jones to beat them through the air, which didn’t bode well.

The Giants went into 2020 with a cast of secondary receiving options, but no legitimate number one receiver. Tight end Evan Engram led the team in targets (109), was second in receptions (63), third in receiving yards (654), and finished with just one touchdown. Unfortunately, Engram failed to correct his issues with drops, registering 11 on the season. Darius Slayton performed well for the Giants (50 receptions, 751 yards, three touchdowns on 96 targets), but he operates as the team’s deep threat, which results in lower quality targets. After playing just 10 games in 2019, Sterling Shepard returned to the Giants but was only able to play in 12 games in 2020, operating primarily from the slot. That was enough for Shepard to finish third in targets (90), first in catches (66), second in yards (656), and tied for the lead in touchdowns (3) on the season.

Finally, the Golden Tate saga came to a head and ultimately resulted in his release 12 games into the 2020 season. After vocally chastising the team on camera during a Monday night football game, Tate was cut in a salary cap move 12 weeks into the season. Despite his early exit from the team, Tate still finished fourth in targets (52), receptions (35), receiving yards (388), and third in touchdowns (2).
Jones didn’t light the league up in 2020, but it was hard to expect him to do much more missing the team’s best playmaker and surrounded by numerous slot options in the passing game and a tight end who has struggled to hang on to the ball throughout his entire career.
Add this to an offensive line that had the worst guard in football according to PFF grades (Shane Lemieux) and starting a rookie right tackle (Andrew Thomas) and Jones was under constant duress with no safety valve he could trust in the passing game.

Why Should We Trust Jones in 2021?

Heading into this upcoming season, it seems that the Giants have done everything in their power to give Jones the weapons needed to succeed. The Giants have shuffled the offensive line, moving Andrew Thomas to left tackle and Matt Peart to right tackle to try and provide stability. Will Hernandez will return on the left side after seeing lagging play due to a COVID infection, so a bounce-back season is likely there. Nick Gates, the projected starting center, showed he could handle center duties in 2020 and should provide more solidarity. Finally, the Giants added Zach Fulton to play their right guard spot, which should hopefully improve the offensive line and allow Lemieux to take on a backup/swing guard role. Consistency (and more talent) along the offensive line should hopefully reduce overall sack numbers. However, the additions to the skill positions will be far more important for Jones’ development.

Most importantly, nearly a full year to recover will mean Saquon Barkley should be ready for training camp and the regular season. ACL injuries can typically linger for a season, but Barkley has posted videos of him diligently training and should miss little to no time. His addition back into the offense will once again force defenses to account for an explosive back that can attack the defense carrying the ball or in the passing game. The Giants also added Devontae Booker fresh off a solid season with the Raiders’ to hopefully bring some stability to the rotating cast of backups the Giants employed last season. While this will help take pressure off Jones in the passing game, the receiving makeover New York underwent in the 2021 offseason should allow him to reach the next level.

The Giants retained the services of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton from last season while adding John Ross III and Kenny Golladay through free agency. While Ross is nothing more than a deep threat that can replace Slayton in case of injury (despite his career-long injury concerns), Golladay should have a massive impact. The Giants broke the bank to secure the services of Golladay (4 years, $72 million), who missed 11 games with a hip injury in 2020. However, his 2019 was extremely impressive despite receiving nearly half his passes from David Blough and Jeff Driskel after Matt Stafford was injured. In 2019, Golladay finished third in yards per catch (18.9) and led the league in touchdown receptions (11).

Most importantly, Golladay led the league in yardage from contested catches according to PFF (429), beating out jump ball specialists like DeVante Parker, Mike Williams, and Julio Jones. We may not know what Daniel Jones is two seasons into his career, but he certainly has shown more talent than those quarterback options. The addition of Golladay to this receiving corps gives Daniel Jones a legitimate WR1 who can dominate opponents and provide a safety blanket if the pocket collapses. Golladay will also take pressure off secondary options like Engram, Shepard, and Slayton, which can only open up windows for Jones.

Despite those additions, the Giants went to the wide receiver well once again during the first round of the NFL draft. After trading back to pick 20, the Giants invested their first-round pick in former Florida Gator Kadarius Toney. Toney had three years of underwhelming production at Florida as he transitioned from quarterback in high school to a wide receiver in college, but he erupted in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Toney caught 70 of his 84 targets for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season and proved to be a huge threat after the catch. In a draft class featuring a bunch of smaller receivers, Toney provided solid size and good measurables. He will likely be a role player and factor on special teams his first season but could see an increased role in the offense if Sterling Shepard gets hurt again in 2021.

metrics and data from playerprofiler.com

The Final Verdict

Ultimately, we don’t know what Daniel Jones is through his first two seasons in the NFL. However, he has shown that he can limit interceptions and complete a high percentage of his passes despite having limited weapons surrounding him thus far while also providing a solid rushing floor. The second year in Jason Garrett’s offense combined with a revamped offensive line, healed Saquon Barkley, and an overhauled wide receiver corps, gives Jones as good of a chance as any young quarterback to take a massive leap in his third season.

By no means should you rely on him to be your QB1 in fantasy leagues, but there is a definite appeal for him as a high upside QB2 heading into next season. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Daniel Jones is the QB27 in fantasy drafts, being selected around names like Taysom Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Teddy Bridgewater. Given the considerable improvements to the team around him, he is an excellent flier to gamble on and could very well wind up a league winner when 2021 is done.

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