Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): ZOZO Championship

October 19, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his ZOZO Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the ZOZO Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo, Japan. It was initially built in 1976 and features what I would call a 'claustrophobic design.' The fairways are of average width, but the venue as a whole emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature where golfers will be required to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout the 18 holes. That means accuracy takes the podium over distance this week, and we should get a general idea of that with the venue measuring under 7,100 yards. I want to note that length isn't irrelevant if you're going to intensify your research and think a little outside of the box, but I geared mine towards accuracy when making a build.

We have a unique number of par threes, with all five measuring below 200 yards. The easiest of the five is the 13th, which yields nearly a 20% birdie or better percentage and plays at 141 yards. The three par-fives are lengthy, and all exceed 560 yards. The 14th is 608 yards and only has a 25.2% birdie or better rate - a number that is greatly reduced for what we typically see on tour. And then we have the 10 par-fours that are all over the map in design.

The only other notable point that you will hear a lot of throughout the industry this week is that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter, but golfers will need to be aware of it to avoid making any unnecessary mistakes.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson lead the way at 12/1, Collin Morikawa comes in at 16/1 and Rory McIlroy finishes the top group at 18/1.

Key Stats 

• Strokes Gained Total on Short Par 70 Courses (10%)
• Weighted Par-Three (10%)
• Weighted Par-Four (20%)
• Weighted Par-Five (10%)
• Weighted Bentgrass (10%)
• Weighted Proximity (15%)
• Sand Save Percentage (10%)
• Total Driving - Geared Towards Accuracy (15%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($11,000) - Xander ranks number one in my model for safety. There is a minor difference between him and Collin Morikawa, but both are the chalk for good reason.
• Most Upside: Collin Morikawa ($11,200) - Unfortunately, pricing is really good, and maybe that has more to do with the fact that the field is watered down at the very bottom, but If I am being honest, I don’t like this tournament from a DraftKings perspective. You get these weird built-in scenarios when you have two golfers that are sub-eight/1 to win the event, and you have to at least consider fading one or both of them in any large-sized GPP if they reach 30%+. However, the problem with that is not only is the ownership warranted, but I also have a hard time seeing how they don’t at least stay competitive.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) - Tommy Fleetwood is 37th for me out of 78 players when it comes to strokes gained approach. That is not good for the fifth-priced golfer in an event where I believe the course is a second-shot venue, but when I condensed the proximity numbers to equal more of what he should get this weekend at Narashino Country Club, he grades eighth in this field. We can say he is overpriced at $10,000, but I truly believe it is marginal at best if everyone wants to look elsewhere.
• Fade: None - At least on the surface, but I am going to focus on builds around Tommy Fleetwood and one of Collin Morikawa or Xander Schauffele. I will likely let ownership dictate that decision for me.
• Most Likely Winner: Flip A Coin Between Xander and Morikawa

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Erik Van Rooyen ($9,500) - Alex Noren should be considered in this range also, but the $9,000 section has a lot of good value, even if most aren't my preferred choice.
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) - Joaquin Niemann has gone ice cold with the putter recently, but my viewpoint has remained the same for him over the last few months. He has gained with his irons in 14 of 16. Off the tee in 11 of 13, and while we aren’t talking about massive numbers during most of those, I doubt the popularity will get high enough for me to pivot elsewhere. In reality, I could start a lineup with him or have him be my second man behind Fleetwood. That alone would diversify my build.
• Favorite GPP Play: Scattered Mix - The best GPP values on my model are Joaquin Niemann ($9,900), Erik Van Rooyen ($9,500) and Cameron Tringale ($9,200)
• Fade: Rickie Fowler ($9,800) - I want to see it again from Rickie Fowler before I even consider this big of a price jump.
• Most Likely Winner: Joaquin Niemann ($9,900)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900), C.T. Pan ($8,800), K.H. Lee ($8,700) - All are top-10 cash plays for me at the ZOZO.
• Most Upside: Ryan Palmer ($8,300) - Ryan Palmer’s form looks shaky with multiple missed cuts in his last handful of showings, but I am willing to ignore most of that because of how he fits for the course. He ranks 10th in this field over his past 50 rounds on short par 70 layouts and is also inside the top-20 for weighted proximity and overall birdie or better percentage.
• Favorite GPP Play: Chris Kirk ($8,100) - I believe the stats are better than Chris Kirk's form would indicate. The American has gained with his irons in eight of nine starts. Off the tee in four of seven, but this is the kind of venue you would anticipate seeing him find success because of his accuracy off the tee.
• Fade: Adam Schenk ($8,200) - Too expensive and too much popularity
• Most Likely Winner: Chris Kirk ($8,100)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Tom Hoge ($7,000) 
• Most Upside: Pat Perez ($7,300)
• Favorite GPP Play: Brendon Todd ($7,400)
• Fade: Luke List ($7,900) 
• Most Likely Winner: Brendon Todd ($7,400)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Doc Redman ($6,800), Roger Sloan ($6,800), Andrew Putnam ($6,700), Chan Kim $6,500. The three total dart throws would be James Hahn $6,300, Kyle Stanley $6,200 and Wesley Bryan at the stone-minimum price of $6,000.

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