Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Tour Championship

September 2, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Tour Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! What a tournament we had at the BMW Championship, as Jon Rahm stormed his way up the leaderboard on the weekend to defeat Dustin Johnson in a playoff. It was a chaotic finish from the duo down the stretch, with the American connecting on a 43-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff - only to be outdone by Rahm, who drained a 66-footer of his own during the first hole of sudden death.

As far as DraftKings is concerned, we had some massive win totals posted by various readers of this article because of the condensed core we discussed that featured the likes of Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Kokrak and Brian Harman. Be sure to send me your winning screenshots to get featured in this article moving forward, and congratulations to everyone that hit it big last weekend in Illinois!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Tour Championship - PGA DFS Overview

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

The staggered starting positions for the Tour Championship will give us a unique format to dissect, but I do think it is important to remember that players starting 10-back of the lead will have their hands full to actually capture the title. East Lake isn't a course where you can pick up strokes in bunches, which is evident by the winning score (non-bonus starting amount) typically ending at around 12 to 13-under par. Golfers beginning the event from way behind will need multiple facets to come in properly if they want to make a run for the riches, and I think it is essential to start your builds with as many players near the top as possible. That doesn't mean we won't need to connect on the lower-priced options down the board, but it does suggest that a more stars-and-scrubs nature should be taken since we need to make sure we pinpoint the winner for the finale.

East Lake is a challenging test that will make sure everyone earns their payday. The par-fours at the property are long, and it is essential to keep a clean scorecard until you have an opportunity to strike. Those edges typically come on the two par-fives - which each yield over a 40 percent birdie rate to go along with a small chance for eagle. Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring total at those two locations in 2019, making it a must-have place to pick up strokes on the field.

The greens feature Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will be important to miss shots in the correct quadrant. Golfers who do ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and there are 74 bunkers and six water hazards at the venue. Perhaps more so than most weeks, we also need to look at mental fortitude. With 15 million dollars on the line, there is going to be no room for error to wilt under the pressure.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/5 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 3/1, Justin Thomas at 6/1 and Webb Simpson at 14/1. Rory McIlroy, the defending champion of this event, enters the week seven-back and at a price tag of 25/1.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Approach 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
• Ball Striking 17.5%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 12.5%
• Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($15,200)

Will Dustin Johnson be able to run and hide at East Lake? That is the question that could earn him 15 million dollars. The American doesn't have the best course history with two finishes outside the top-15 in the last five years, but he does have three top-sixes thrown into the mix. Johnson's range is wider than most consider, and while he could go wire-to-wire for a runaway victory, there are 80s in his arsenal that could ruin his chances. You have to take a stance somewhere to win these small-field events, and I'll be fading Johnson and hoping for the best.

Jon Rahm ($12,700)

A strong argument can be made that Jon Rahm possesses value at his $12,700 price tag on DraftKings. I'm much more inclined to splurge on the Spaniard at a reduction of $2,500 from DJ, and I think his upside for victory/overall level of consistency should have him in the mix late on Sunday.

Justin Thomas ($11,900)

It is the Tour Championship; let's take a firm stance in this article. Justin Thomas will be your winner of the FedExCup playoffs. Thomas starts just three shots back of Dustin Johnson and gets a $3,300 discount for his troubles on DraftKings. The American is the top-ranked player in the world when it comes to par-five scoring, and I'd expect him to make a similar move that we saw Rory McIlroy do last season of earning nearly 54% of his strokes on these more accessible holes. If he can follow that blueprint, expect Thomas to have a chance to be the man you want to own for the week.

Webb Simpson ($11,100)

Webb Simpson doesn't look so crazy anymore by only losing what amounted to one shot after skipping the BMW Championship. The extra rest could provide wonders for the 35-year-old, but he is going to need to improve his par-five scoring to catch the leaders. Simpson has become a more volatile golfer in 2020, so I am not discounting that we see him chase down the group above him and walk out of Atlanta $15,000,000 richer.

Collin Morikawa ($10,400), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)

We have an extremely interesting group here to wrap up the $10,000 and above range. I view both golfers as GPP-only options because of their volatility, but they provide the upside needed to catch the leaders if they can get hot. Neither is grading out as value for me on the surface, but that doesn't mean we don't see one (or both) light up Atlanta and make a run for the title.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Rory McIlroy ($9,700)

We might have to stomach the possibility that Rory McIlroy could burn us and ignore the Irishman. McIlroy has already stated that his child's birth takes top priority, and the possibility of him withdrawing from the event becomes even more amplified with him beginning the week seven shots back. The 31-year-old has name value baked into this price tag, and I'd prefer to pay incorrectly for a player like DeChambeau if I am shooting for upside.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)

I can't help but feel like Hideki Matsuyama missed his chance of ending his winless drought at the BMW Championship. The Japanese sensation looked wild off the tee over the weekend, culminating in him falling just two shots short of the playoff. The 20th-ranked player in the world will always grade out well statistically, but it is hard for me to ignore what might happen if his par saves stop dropping from six feet.

Daniel Berger ($9,100)

Daniel Berger is going to be popular. It is difficult to say how popular compared to his counterparts, but I think strong evidence states that he will be the most played option on the board. That doesn't necessarily help with deciding what to do with him for the week, but I do believe Berger will outperform his DraftKings price that ranks him as the ninth overall player. I'm not sure we ultimately get a victory out of the American, but it is tricky to ignore the rebated cost.

Xander Schauffele ($8,900)

If Daniel Berger or Dustin Johnson don't end up being the most owned golfer, my money would be on Xander Schauffele. The 26-year-old is a superb player in no-cut events because of his aptitude to usually provide one upper-echelon round per week, and we are going to need an aberrational day or two from anyone this far down the board if they want a legitimate chance to find the winner's circle. Schauffele provides just that at a reasonable cost.

Harris English ($8,700)

To me, Harris English is a cash-game only type of play. His lack of upside has reduced his salary to $8,700, but it isn't easy to be overly encouraged about his chances to generate the amount of upside needed to take down a GPP event.

Patrick Reed ($8,500)

East Lake has proven to be a headache for Patrick Reed in the past. Given a six-under start here last season, Reed only could muster a ninth-place result, and he has failed to crack the top-23 in three of his additional four starts since 2015.

Tony Finau ($8,200)

You are paying up marginally for Tony Finau's birdie-making skills and name recognition, but you won't hear any massive gripes from me if you do decide to go down this route. Finau may slip into some of my builds because of how I plan to create my core, but I do recognize that he is going to be a trendy choice.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Scottie Scheffler ($7,900)

I had Scottie Scheffler rated better before making some minor adjustments to my model, but the rookie is still grading out as someone reasonably priced on DraftKings for the Tour Championship. Scheffler's ability to score in bunches will make him a popular selection, and that is all you can ask for when trying to build a unique construction

Brendon Todd ($7,600)

I continue to be underweight to Brendon Todd because of the lack of weight I put into short game figures, and I feel as if his lack of consistency with his irons will eventually catch up to him. It might not be this weekend at East Lake, but Todd's approach numbers are virtually dead last in the field across the board from each range.

Sungjae Im ($7,300)

It is hard to be overly encouraged by the current stretch we have seen from Sungjae Im, but there is a disparity present if we decide to cling onto the lowest priced option by $1,400 of the four-under par golfers. I'm not going to have my week decided on the South Korean deciding to show up for the final event of the 2020 season, but I also don't think it hurts to sneak him into a few GPP lineups here and there.

Tyrell Hatton ($7,000)

We got our second straight quality outing from Tyrrell Hatton at the BMW Championship, who seems to be trending back towards the early-season form that saw him generate four top-sixes in four events. We aren't quite back to that level of production, but Hatton is beginning to peak again at the right time.

Kevin Kisner ($6,800)

Kevin Kisner provided his fifth straight top-25 result at the BMW Championship. That level of form shouldn't be ignored, but it will come at a cost. The American will be an extremely popular choice, and I believe his plodding nature reduces the upside some are expecting him to generate.

Viktor Hovland ($6,600)

What should we expect during Viktor Hovland's first crack at the Tour Championship? Recent form would suggest less than some might be anticipating, but the Danish golfer will get a chance to fire freely starting this event at even par. Perhaps too much of the upside is already baked into the pricing, but Hovland has the game to make birdies at will when he gets hot.

Joaquin Niemann ($6,300)

In my opinion, Joaquin Niemann is mispriced at $6,300 and should be closer to $7,000 for the event. There aren't many players in the world who can catch fire quite as well as the Chilean does, and taking the stroke advantage over some of his counterparts in this range might play a factor down the stretch.

Abraham Ancer ($6,100)

Unfortunately, Abraham Ancer's season never quite got back on track after his two-week break between the Travelers Championship and the Memorial. I don't entirely trust his around the green game to perform at the level needed to climb up the leaderboard, and I most likely will find myself underweight to the field.

Sebastian Munoz ($5,900)

Sebastian Munoz's three-under par starting total makes him a much more intriguing prospect than we would otherwise have gotten if he was starting at even-par, but I don't want to place too much value on it a number that is still seven shots off the lead. Munoz is presumably value in a vacuum, but his upside isn't enough to warrant a ton of GPP consideration. That makes me like him more for cash games, but I'm still not necessarily jumping for joy with that either.

Billy Horschel ($5,700)

Billy Horschel's second-place showing here in 2018 mixed with his current form will likely make him the most owned option under $6,000. I originally planned on the idea that the Florida native would be a possibility worth considering at the right price, but I'm not sure $5,700 is that number. Frankly, there are just choices I like better down this low, and the popularity of the 33-year-old is a bit of a turn off.

Lanto Griffin ($5,600)

It is good to see that DraftKings undervalued Lanto Griffin to end the season once again. If nothing else, they have been consistent. Griffin is the lowest priced player at two-under par by $700 under Joaquin Niemann, and while I do believe he is the weakest play of the group, he isn't as far off as some might imagine. Griffin has legitimate upside to blow past his starting price and is my biggest mispricing on the board.

Kevin Na ($5,500)

Kevin Na probably has the weakest course history of anyone that has competed in this event once since 2015. The 36-year-old has failed to crack the top-16, and his previous two showings have resulted in finishes outside the top-24.

Ryan Palmer ($5,400)

There is never a guarantee for what you will get with Ryan Palmer, but it does help the situation when you can acquire him inside the bottom 15 percent of selections on the board. Palmer has the ability to use his par-five scoring ability to make a run up the leaderboard, and I don't believe a top-15 showing is out of the cards for the Texan.

Cameron Champ ($5,300)

Which version of Cameron Champ will we get at the Tour Championship? If it is the one we got during the PGA Championship, we might be onto something at his $5,300 price tag. Champ's length could be a positive for him if he gets hot, although his shoddy around the green totals quickly start to disparage any hope of him making a run. For whatever upside you think the American might have, there is also a world where he comes in dead last for the week. The risk is up to you.

Mackenzie Hughes ($5,200)

Good on Mackenzie Hughes for his up-and-down from the bunker on the 72nd hole to qualify for the finale.  That result gives him a career-changing outcome, but I am afraid the feel-good story will end there this season.

Cameron Smith ($5,100)

If your goal is to shoot for the fence and hope for the best, Cameron Smith might be your best option under Ryan Palmer. The Aussie has yielded back-to-back top-20 results, and we do seem to be in a situation where he has done it so quietly that he will go off as one of the lowest owned plays on the board.

Marc Leishman ($5,000)

What has happened to Marc Leishman's game? Crazier things have occurred in life, but the Aussie is coming into the week after shooting a tournament-worst 30-over par at the BMW Championship. Even as contrarian as I tend to be, I can't condone going down that path with someone who is clearly struggling past the point of what is being shown on paper.

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