RADIO
Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Sanderson Farms Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Sanderson Farms Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Country Club of Jackson
7,461 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bermuda
The Country Club of Jackson is a rather unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles that you would expect to see. Players will be required to work the ball both ways with doglegs going left and right, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit shots to the correct side of the fairway.
Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. Players only hit about 54% of fairways, but the lack of rough shouldn't present issues for those that are unable to locate the short grass off the tee. All of that makes me believe a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go with Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ being the previous three winners, but a hot putter will be the key to success.
Typically, events like this are not my favorite when we have to rely on anything involving the flat stick, but I dove a little deeper to try and figure out why that might be, and I think I figured out a potential answer. The last five winners have combined to be 97-under par during their wins. That highlights a birdie fest, but it is important to figure out where the scoring is coming from. 47.5% has been on the four par-fives and an additional 11.5% has come from the singular short par-four 15th, which includes Cody Gribble skewing the data by playing it even throughout the four days. That's 59% of the winning totals coming at those five holes. Projections would suggest that the average golfer is only birding them 33.68% of the time, giving us a massive disparity from those that hoist the title versus everyone else.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Country Club Of Jackson | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 282 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 54% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 69% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.55 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris lead the way at 18/1 and are followed by Sergio Garcia and Sungjae Im at 20/1, Corey Conners at 24/1 and Si Woo Kim and Cameron Tringale at 30/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%)
- Short Par-Four Efficiency (7.5%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (25%)
- Overall Birdie or Better (10%)
- Total Driving (17.5%)
- GIR (10%)
- Proximity 200+ Yards (20%)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Sam Burns ($11,000) - Sam Burns is the number 1 golfer in my model when looking for safety. I prefer using him in cash games or single-entry builds versus large MMEs for that reason, but his birdie-making skills should go nicely with his current form.
- Most Upside: Sergio Garcia ($10,500) - I think we would have a different story if Sergio Garcia wasn't coming from the Ryder Cup, but his win here last season shows he can find success. There is an upside to be had in MME-type contests, but despite where he ranks in my model, I am going to only use him in specific contests - mostly those of the large-field variety.
- Favorite GPP Play: Will Zalatoris ($10,800) - Ownership is starting to flock to Will Zalatoris, who is still searching for his first PGA Tour win, but it is easy to understand why. His long iron play and distance off the tee should make him perfectly suited for this track.
- Fade: None - All five players rank in the top nine for me, including Burns, Zalatoris, Garcia and Im being the top four players for the week.
- Most Likely Winner: Will Zalatoris ($10,800)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Cameron Tringale ($9,400) - Cameron Tringale's lack of upside sometimes worries me for GPP contests, but he has continued to shine over the last few months with countless top-25 finishes/
- Most Upside: Mito Periera ($9,900) - Three top-sixes over his last five tournaments, Mito Periera is showing the talent that might make him this year's Will Zalatoris.
- Favorite GPP Play: Cameron Davis ($9,100) - Cameron Davis is one of my favorite plays that is going under the radar early on in the week. Sixth here last year, which isn’t the be-all, end-all, but his distance and birdie-making prowess might shine through nicely. Davis is currently under 10 percent owned and ranks fourth in my upside model.
- Fade: Sebastian Munoz ($9,300) - Munoz's 2019 victory at the venue has given him a price boost.
- Most Likely Winner: Mito Periera ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)
- Most Upside: Matthew Wolff ($8,500)
- Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Wolff ($8,500)
- Fade: C.T. Pan ($8,100)
- Most Likely Winner: I'll go with a name other than Matthew Wolff for some diversity in this article. Carlos Ortiz ($8,600)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Taylor Pendrith ($7,800)
- Most Upside: Luke List ($7,500)
- Favorite GPP Play: Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
- Fade: Chez Reavie ($9,800)
- Most Likely Winner: Luke List ($7,500)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Grayson Sigg ($6,900), Hudson Swafford ($6,900), Kevin Tway ($6,800), John Augenstein ($6,700), Anirban Lahiri ($6,200), Davis Thompson $6,100
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