The Cut List (Week 15) - Time to Let Go?

December 15, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 15 of the season.

I don't know if there is a more frustrating aspect of fantasy football than the double-bladed sword we refer to as "patience."

One of those blades will mockingly wound you in grand fashion after you've given up on a player too early. The other will repeatedly lacerate you over time for believing in a player too long, until finally you look down and see a thousand small cuts and a hopeless fantasy squad.

My problem with the indiscriminate sword of fantasy football consequence is: Who decides what is "too early" and "too late" when it comes to waiting on a player?

2020 Reflections

Jonathan Taylor's 2020 campaign can best be broken down into three segments-- a three-act play, if you will. In Act One (Weeks 1-6), our hero was a mid-range RB2 whose volume could've driven back-end RB1 status. In Act Two (Weeks 8-10), Taylor was utterly unusable in fantasy lineups, played under 35% of offensive snaps in three straight games, and appeared on the verge of losing his job as the Colts' primary running back. But Week 11 signified the beginning of Act Three, in which Taylor is now performing as the league-winning, breakout rookie we were all expecting when we drafted him in August. If you made the playoffs with Taylor weighing your roster down all season, fantastic. But if you didn't, he's likely one of the reasons why. You should never have outright dropped him, but what if you traded him? Was that the "wrong call" just because he's going off now? Did you give up "too early?"

The same point can be made about Cam Akers, albeit for different reasons. Akers played a combined 44 snaps in his first five games, seeing zero touches in two of those. His snap count jumped at the halfway point of the season to the extent that he was occasionally allowed to participate in games, but he was still not seeing enough touches to warrant fantasy consideration. And now, of course, he appears to have finally taken over as the Rams' lead back, going for 288 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 53 touches in his last two games. Again, did you exercise some sort of "bad process" if you gave up on him at any point during the 12 weeks he was completely useless in fantasy lineups?

There are undoubtedly a number of you out there who benched at least one of these players late in the season in favor of a guy like Ezekiel Elliott, who by now is just as much of a liability in fantasy lineups as either Taylor or Akers were earlier. You decided to go with the struggling-yet-proven veteran over a rookie who was also struggling (or not playing at all) and hadn't proven anything. And it likely cost you a chance at a championship.

If there is any takeaway to be found here, it's that you shouldn't beat yourself up over having a sound decision backfire on you. Taylor had more than half a season to prove he was an RB1-caliber player, and he mostly let you down. Akers was massively underutilized by his real-life team for three quarters of the year. How were you supposed to know he was suddenly going to become a workhorse? *Insert Good Will Hunting scene in which Robin Williams repeatedly tells Matt Damon, "It's not your fault."*

Having poured one out for the unlucky fantasy managers who could not be rescued in time by the late-season surges of Taylor and Akers, let us now turn our attention to those who are steamrolling their way into the second round of the playoffs because of them. Join me for the Week 15 Cut List.

Droppable Players

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

17.3% rostered

You would've had to take a very convoluted path to arrive at a juncture where you're relying on Daniel Jones at QB, but there have been enough injuries (Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow), underwhelming performances (Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Jared Goff), and benchings (Carson Wentz) in the quarterback department that I suppose there is a chance you missed out on all of the replacement options who've surfaced in the meantime. If so, I must recommend that you make your way to emergency streaming territory and leave Jones behind.

Jones hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 9, which gives him two separate streaks of at least three games without one this year (four straight from Weeks 2-5). That alone is enough for me to wash my hands of this situation and start just about anyone else in the league at QB, but he's also been on a severely downward trend in the opportunity department as well. After beginning the season with five consecutive games of at least 32 passing attempts, he is averaging 28.6 in seven games since with a steady downtick in each of his last four. While he occasionally adds some rushing value, it's not nearly consistent or even lucrative enough to offset what he isn't giving you through the air.

His Week 15 opponent, the Browns, isn't a team I'd actively avoid matchup-wise if we were talking about a better fantasy QB. It's also not one I'm targeting when the QB in question is Jones. He'll face Baltimore in Week 16, meaning you can't confidently stream him for the remainder of the playoffs in traditional formats.

Benny Snell Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers

32.3% rostered

Beyond Benny Snell's position behind James Conner on the depth chart, there are much bigger issues at play in terms of the Steelers' running game. Which is to say they don't have one. Despite their 11-2 record, which is admittedly starting to look like a mirage, the Steelers are not a balanced, functional offense. They rank second-to-last in the league in total rushing, ahead of only the hapless Texans. Even the aforementioned Conner, when active, has failed to provide fantasy managers with start-worthy output in the second half of the season.

It could be argued Pittsburgh's Week 15 matchup with the Bengals presents a get-right opportunity, one in which the Steelers could reasonably be expected to emphasize a change in offensive philosophy and seek to incorporate the ground game after back-to-back losses. Even if that transpires, Snell has not done nearly enough on limited volume (even during two games Conner missed) to suggest that he'll be usable in fantasy lineups. Having accumulated 20 or more scrimmage yards in just three games this season, Snell is merely a backup in the event Conner can't play--and not a good one at that.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

59.8% rostered

Whatever chemistry Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy seemed to be establishing in the middle of the season has gone by the wayside since. Jeudy averaged 10 targets per game from Weeks 8-11, securing double-digit PPR output in three of the four games during that span. In his last three outings, he's seen just nine targets total for three catches and 47 yards. One of those was admittedly the infamous Kendall Hinton game, but the point remains: Jeudy's promising role has diminished greatly. Lock just had the best game of his young career in Week 14, and Jeudy was a nonfactor.

I'll allow that if you were going to start Jeudy in the playoffs, Week 15 against Buffalo would be the time to do it. The Bills have given up 342 yards and three touchdowns on 31 catches to WRs in their last two games. Those inviting numbers having been mentioned, Jeudy's recent workload hardly suggests he's a safe bet to exploit such a trend. You'd be starting him optimistically in this scenario, not confidently.

If you're not going to start him this week, you may as well drop him now. He'll take on a Chargers Defense in Week 16 that has given up the second-fewest receptions and the sixth-fewest yards to opposing wide receivers. For fantasy managers looking to pick up Jalen Hurts or even those looking ahead to secure their Week 16 defense, Jeudy might be the guy you have to send packing to clear a roster spot.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

71.6% rostered

After earning the illustrious game-day designation of "Inactive: Coach's Decision" in Week 14, it's hard to imagine there is any positive trajectory in Leonard Fournette's end-of-season outlook. In addition to that, he hasn't provided fantasy managers with anything closely resembling start-worthy production in more than a month. In his last three appearances, he amassed just 76 yards on 24 touches, with a meager 2.56 yards per rushing attempt and one touchdown.

There are certainly caveats to be addressed here, not the least of which is that Bruce Arians is notorious for deploying a totally unpredictable backfield from one week to the next. It should also be noted that Ronald Jones II suffered what is believed to be a broken pinky finger in Week 14, an injury presumably painful enough to at least call into question his ability to handle an overwhelming workload in Week 15. Still, how many different circumstances would have to align perfectly in order for you to trust Fournette in your fantasy lineup? For me, the answer is "too many." If Fournette is destined for a big fantasy day to close out the 2020 season, I'm comfortable allowing it to take place on my league's waiver wire after what I've seen (or haven't seen) from him in Tampa Bay.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers

42.8% rostered

The 49ers finally have their full complement of running backs healthy at the same time, and Jerick McKinnon has become a complete nonfactor as a result. After logging 74% of San Francisco's offensive snaps in Week 9, here are his snap percentages in the four subsequent games, respectively: 62%, 25%, 3%, 0%. There isn't much need to read into this any further. He's behind Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson Jr. in the pecking order, and appears poised to remain there as long as all are active.

Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams

10.9% rostered

Josh Reynolds was the recipient of strong involvement in the Rams' passing game from Weeks 7-12, a span in which he saw 39 targets and converted them into 24 catches, 262 yards, and a touchdown. These numbers sound fine until you remember that they occurred over the course of five games, at which point it becomes clear that Reynolds needed nearly eight targets per game just to sustain borderline PPR-flex consideration.

In his last two outings, he's seen just three total targets and converted them into two catches for 27 yards. Reynolds is trending down in a hurry, and the Rams offense appears to be hitting its stride at just the right time without him. He's an easily droppable player at this juncture.

Hold For Now

We're not going to do a traditional "Hold For Now" for the rest of this season, as we have reached the point where there is no future for which to hang onto a player. If you're not planning on starting a guy this week or next, what are you really waiting for? Instead, I want to list a few players I would keep on my roster just so no one else can pick them up and use them against me in a playoff matchup.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - You may be doing just fine at QB without Drew Brees, but the last thing you want is for your championship opponent to grab him for deployment against a soft Minnesota pass defense in Week 16. Even with no timetable for a return to action, it's better to be safe than sorry here.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers - If you have an IR spot, this is a no-brainer. I also don't think the 49ers have any incentive to bring him back this year after losing to Washington in Week 14. Still, if you drop George Kittle and then he's activated, you'll be given the key to Tilt City when a contending league mate picks him up.

D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars - I'm thoroughly in favor of benching D.J. Chark the rest of the way if you have better WR options, as he'll face the Ravens and Bears in his next two contests. Dropping him would be a little harsh. It's not his fault the Jaguars have utilized a carousel of bad QBs in 2020, and his target count has remained respectable enough to at least hope for a big game.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles
• Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
• Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
• Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
• Ty Johnson, New York Jets
• Breshad Perriman, New York Jets

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