Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 9: Buy or Sell?

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

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Risers

Chris Taylor (SS, LAD): 100% contact rate last seven days (+26%)

Taylor hasn’t whiffed at a pitch in the last seven days, and it has translated to better production. He has a 1.114 OPS and .400 ISO over his last 28 plate appearances along with four extra-base hits. His hot streak hasn’t translated to a better batting average, as Taylor is only hitting .250 during this stretch thanks to a .214 BABIP. Although his .243 batting average is much lower this season compared to last year’s .288 mark, most of the underlying metrics suggest he is hitting similarly. He had a .261 xBA in 2017 and has a .259 xBA this season, he had a .338 xWOBA in 2017 and has a .354 xWOBA this season, and he had a .208 ISO in 2017 and a .199 ISO this season. He made legitimate improvements last season and had good fortune with a .361 BABIP. His batting average will probably end up around the .260 mark that Statcast projects.

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY): 95% contact rate last seven days (+17%)

Perhaps Father Time hasn’t come for Brett Gardner quite yet. He is hitting .333 with a .968 OPS over the last seven days with a 1:1 K/BB ratio. Four of his eight hits during this span were extra-base hits, which is encouraging for a player with an .091 ISO on the season. His hard contact rate rose to 45.5% over the last seven days compared to 27.5% prior to this stretch. These are positive signs here, but there are also still reasons for concern. Gardner’s overall line drive percentage has cratered to 16% after being above 20% in each of the last six seasons. None of his batted balls were classified as line drives over the last seven days. His performance against offspeed and breaking pitches has also declined severely. He has an xWOBA below .200 against both offspeed and breaking pitches this season. He’s always performed best against fastballs, but now he can only hit fastballs. Gardner is still a good source of OBP, steals, and runs but his batting average may not fully recover. He needs to keep hitting to stay in the leadoff spot. The Yankees have a lot of young talent and much of Gardner’s value comes from hitting leadoff and scoring a lot of runs in front of an elite lineup.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, STL): 94% contact rate last seven days (+16%)

Ozuna is hitting .500 (11-for-22) over the last seven days with a 1.087 OPS and 2:1 BB/K ratio. Unfortunately, 10 of his 11 hits were singles and he had a 62% groundball rate during this period. Groundballs have been a big problem for Ozuna all season, and he’s posted the highest groundball percentage of his big league career thus far. That’s why we have seen such a drop in power for Ozuna. He’s still crushing the ball, his 91.3 MPH average exit velocity is exactly what we want from a hitter, but his failure to elevate the ball is the reason he has a .078 ISO through 206 plate appearances. Most other metrics align with his career averages. His season-long strikeout rate and contact rate are both in line with his career marks. Statcast predicts more power to come, as Ozuna has a .461 xSLG compared to his current .342 SLG. He has the fifth largest gap between SLG and xSLG among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. It’s hard to see him meeting his expected stats without hitting more flyballs, but that looks like the last missing piece right now. His batting average should be fine and he’s one adjustment away from recapturing his power. Now is the time to buy before it’s too late.

Fallers

Justin Smoak (1B, TOR): 47% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Justin Smoak has been straddling the line of viability in standard 5x5 roto all season, but he hit quite a rough patch last week. Over the last seven days he hit .222 with 10 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances. Because his walk rate and power were still good he wasn’t horrible, and had an .884 OPS and 152 wRC+ over that stretch. His strikeout rate prior to this week was 23%, which is right around his career rate. This week can probably be chalked up to a cold stretch, and three of his ten strikeouts came against Aaron Nola, who struck out ten in that start and flirted with a no-hitter. Because his walk rate has shot up to 16% and his swing rate and chase rate have both dropped about 5% Smoak is probably in the same territory as Carlos Santana. Both players will have better value in OBP or points leagues than batting average leagues because of their plate discipline/ His line drive rate is also way down to about 15% and his .254 xBA aligns almost perfectly with his .249 BA. What you see is what you get with Smoak right now. If a moderately powerful, high OBP first baseman is valuable to you, then Smoak is fine.

Bryce Harper (OF, WSH): 56% contact rate last seven days (-18%)

It’s after Memorial Day and Bryce Harper is still hitting .228. He had been making up for this with a good BB/K ratio and lots of power, but the plate discipline eroded this week. He struck out 12 times and had just three walks in 28 plate appearances. The power was still there as three of his five hits were extra-base hits and he had a .292 ISO, but this looks like a week from Joey Gallo, not Bryce Harper. This week coupled with season-long batting average woes shouldn’t scare anyone off Harper. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances Harper has the third largest gap between BA and xBA (.228 BA, .284 xBA), sixth largest gap between SLG and xSLG (.528 SLG, .643 xSLG), and fourth largest gap between wOBA and xWOBA (.370 wOBA, .437 xwOBA). Other than his .228 average Harper’s performed as expected, and we shouldn’t let one bad week convince us that Harper has played poorly enough to deserve a .228 average or .203 BABIP. This is rock bottom for him, and he still had a .786 OPS during the last seven days. Buy if anyone is willing to see for less than first round value.

Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT): 55% contact rate last seven days (-17%)

It was another dismal week for Gregory Polanco. He hit .050 (1-for-20) with one single and nine strikeouts in 23 plate appearances. Bad trends just got worse over the past seven days for Polanco. His strikeout rate continues to rise, his infield flyball rate continues to rise, and his contact rate is in free fall. Polanco’s biggest problem seems to be selling out for power. His average launch angle is a whopping 22.2 degrees, while his career average is 12.9 degrees. This has resulted into a huge jump in flyball rate, up to 52% compared to a 37% career average. This approach works for different hitters in different ballparks, but it doesn’t fit well for Gregory Polanco in PNC Park. This begs the question, how long do we wait for Polanco? 2016 was his only season as an above average hitter and a lot of his fantasy value in past seasons came from stealing bases, something he is doing less than ever so far in 2018. His .233 BABIP shouldn’t be considered too unlucky either. He won’t have a high BABIP with this approach. Serious adjustments need to be made before Polanco’s performance recovers. Since he isn’t running the risk outweighs the reward in buying Polanco. There are better sources of power sitting on waivers in standard mixed leagues right now. Polanco isn’t a cut yet, but he’s on the brink in standard mixed leagues and Austin Meadows is breathing down his neck.

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