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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 3 - Buy or Sell?

Contact rate risers and fallers for Week 3 based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Ben Rolfe identifies offensive players who have started the season either strongly or poorly and discusses whether it is time for any action.

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 3! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Thursday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Our batting average tool officially launches at the beginning on next week, April 22nd. Until then we can look at the last seven days and see how a players contact rate over the last seven days tells a story about their season as a whole, or foretells a coming change.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

David Fletcher (2B/3B/OF, LAA)

100% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 98.5%).

Fletcher has been superb this season at making contact when he swings the back. Just once in the entire season has Fletcher had a game in which he did not make contact on 100% of his swings. That has given him a swinging strike rate of 0.5% on the season, and has led to him getting more opportunities with the Angels. Fletcher has been part of the Angels lineup in the last five days, leading off twice in that time. Part of that was due to Mike Trout missing time heading into last weekend, but Fletcher's performances have certainly helped him make a case for more playing time. So far the results in terms of fantasy relevant output have not been great, zero home runs and just eight combined runs and RBI, but he is hitting .277 with three extra-base hits and two stolen bases. Fletcher could be a player primed to breakout in the coming weeks and should receive consideration as a pickup, especially in deeper leagues.

Jose Martinez (1B/OF, STL)

95.2% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 86.2%).

It has been a tough start to the season for Martinez. The acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt has left him struggling for playing time, as he has started just two games in the last five days. However, there are signs that when he is in the lineup his eye is starting to adjust back to major league level. Over the last seven days, in which he has appeared in six games, Martinez has a .462 batting average with a combined six runs and RBI in 13 PA. He is still short of playing time, limiting his upside, but is worth keeping on your watch list as a potential batting average contributor if an injury occurs in St. Louis.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA)

97.0% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 87.4%).

It has been a somewhat disappointing start for Simmons to the 2019 season. As a hitter who is usually so reliable in terms of batting average, his .215 return so far is tough for fantasy owners to swallow. However, his performance in the last week or so should inspire confidence. In the first 11 games of the season, Simmons struck out six times and had a contact rate around 80%. In the last five days, he has made contact with 97% of his swings and has struck out just once. Unfortunately, he is still just hitting .182 in that stretch but the improved contact and reduced amount of strikeouts are promising signs at this stage of the season. Simmons is also locked into hitting in the top four in the Angels lineup, so should be able to deliver plenty of runs and RBI this season.

Jason Heyward (OF, CHC)

94.7% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 86.3%).

Heyward is experiencing a fascinating start to the season, with four home runs and three stolen bases in less than 60 PA. He is already close to a third of the way to matching his best power and speed outputs as a Cub, and his batting average, .362, has been a huge contributor as well. The contact numbers so far this season are nothing above the norm for his time in Chicago, but he appears to be making better decisions at which pitches to swing at.

As of Wednesday, Heyward is swinging at less than 22% of pitches he sees outside the zone and is making contact with 94% of pitches he sees inside the zone. This improvement in decision-making and the increased output we have seen around it so far has seen Heyward promoted to hit fifth in the Cubs batting order over the last three days. If this start to the season is legit then Heyward could be primed for an extremely surprising season. From the contact numbers at the very least it does not appear as if he will be slowing down any time soon.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Joey Gallo (OF, TEX)

51.4% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 61.1%).

Seeing Joey Gallo near the bottom of this list is unlikely to shock anyone. However, the numbers he is putting up in the last seven days will be somewhat of a shock. Despite nine strikeouts, a nearly 50% contact rate and a 21.8% swinging strike rate, Gallo is hitting .294 with two home runs and a combined eight runs and RBI in the last week. Right now Gallo owns an incredibly high .245 batting average on the season, despite a contact rate which is right around his career average. If you are a Gallo owner, or an owner thinking of trading for Gallo this is a warning that the contact rate over the last week, and historical context, foretells that there is likely a slump of some sort coming for the Rangers slugger. Gallo is prone to extremely hot and cold streaks, and right now he is riding high, despite the terrible contact numbers.

Khris Davis (OF, OAK)

64.7% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 65.3%).

Unbelievably, the man with five home runs and a .400 batting average in the last week ranks very close to the bottom of the contact rate rankings for the last week. The Athletic slugger has just a 64.7% contact rate over the last seven days, bringing his season numbers down to his career average of 68%. Right now he is still smacking the ball out of the park, but his current pace has him on track for 79 home runs, which is obviously unsustainable. Additionally, Davis is currently sporting a batting average nearly .020 higher than his career batting average. It sounds crazy to say but now is the time to try and sell high on Davis if you can, because these contact numbers suggest one of his cold streaks might be just around the corner.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, STL)

65.9% contact rate in the last seven days (2019: 69.2%).

Here is another hot hitter whose contact rate numbers suggest things could soon be about to go in a different direction. Ozuna has five home runs, a stolen base and a .450 batting average in the last seven days. However, his contact rate right now is down below his career average of 74.3% which suggest two possible outcomes. On one hand, his contact rate struggles suggest that he could be due for a cold streak in the coming weeks. However, the fact his contact rate is below his career average, which has been pretty consistent around 75% the last few years could indicate that actually he is due to improve his contact, and could continue to put up the impressive numbers of the last week. Given those two possible outcomes, now is a good time to keep hold of Ozuna, unless you receive an offer which blows you out of the water, as there could still be some further upside to what we have seen in the last week.

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and will launch on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
NBA

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

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DEF
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1B
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3B
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OF
SP
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