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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 25 - Buy or Sell?

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 25! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy-relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

 

Contact Rate Risers

Data current as of 9/18/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.

 

Mitch Garver (C, MIL)

94% contact rate last seven days (+21%)

It has been a really impressive follow-up act from Garver this season, hitting .276 with 30 home runs in 338 PA. However, his second-half has been a little less impressive at least from a batting average point of view, with a .254 batting average. He has brought that back around in September, as he is hitting .310 with four home runs in 38 PA. His batting average increase this year is fascinating given his BABIP has dropped, and his K% rate has risen 2.2%. His contact rate has dropped this season, but his SwStr% has stayed identical to each of the last two years thanks to a 2.3% drop in O-Swing%, and a 1.5% drop in Z-Swing%.

The concern that those numbers should not have led to the batting average increase we saw this season is increased when you look at his power numbers. His exit velocity is incredibly impressive, but a 28.8% HR/FB rate is likely not sustainable into next season. Between the slight batting average concerns I have and the power regression, my anticipated advice for next season would be to use what is hopefully an end of season hot streak to sell Garver this offseason in your dynasty leagues. Also, use these numbers as caution when his ADP is soaring next spring.

 

Ramon Laureano (OF, OAK)

85% contact rate last seven days (+17%)

Laureano has built on his short stint in the majors in 2018 with a solid 2019. His batting average held, his K% has dropped and his ISO has taken that next step, with 22 home runs this season. However, his contact rate numbers do give me a reason for pause, as his SwStr% has jumped 1.4% thanks to an increase of 5.7% in Swing% coupled with just a 0.3% jump in Contact%. These numbers just concern me that the K% drop we saw this year is not real and would be enough for me to enter next year with some caution surrounding Laureano.

 

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

2019 may have confirmed our fears that the incredible Joey Votto is heading in the same direction as Miguel Cabrera, down and out of fantasy relevance. Votto has seen a second straight dip in batting average down to .268 and he has managed just 15 home runs. More concerningly is the K% tipping over into a new career-high of 19.9%, and rising for the second straight year. His batted ball numbers are a major concern with his HR/FB sitting down at just 10% for a second straight year, having been up near 20% throughout his career. His BB% has also dropped in conjunction with a rise in his O-Swing% combined with a big drop in his O-Contact%. Do not let this hot streak at the end of the season fool you, Votto is all but done as a viable first base fantasy option entering 2020.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Data current as of 9/11/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

45% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Speaking of bad years, Bradley has really struggled in 2019. His batting average has dipped to .221 and his K% is back up at those early-career numbers of 27%. The situation would be even worse if it wasn't for a hot month in June when he hit .315 with five home runs and struck out just 20.8% of the time. In three of the other five months, he has hit below .200 and struck out 30% or more of the time. His contact profile belies the concern as his SwStr% is up at a career-high 14.6% as his Z-Contact% has dropped 3.1%. There is a chance that Bradley will bounce back somewhat in 2020, but the excitement over him in fantasy should be done until he can prove otherwise.

 

Dee Gordon (2B, SEA)

60% contact rate last seven days (-20%)

Yikes, this is not what you want if you drafted Gordon. Injuries have limited him to just 399 PA entering play on Wednesday. He has stolen 22 bases which have to be considered acceptable, but his batting average did not really jump as we hoped. Also, his K% has snuck up. His SwStr% is up thanks to a dip in Z-Contact% from 94 down to 89, but those are numbers you can live with. The problem is that injuries appear to be limiting his contribution and that should lead to pause. His value next year will likely inflate because of his ability to swipe bases, but this little cold streak to end the season should be a warning to remind you that if he doesn't steal you 40 bases his value is extremely limited for your fantasy team.

 

Daniel Vogelbach (1B, SEA)

55% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

A really frustrating year for people who were invested in Vogelbach is coming to an end. On one hand, he has hit 30 home runs and increased his batting average from last season. On the other hand, his batting average is just .214 and he has a K% of 26. The power element of his game is legit, and he should be a regular 30 home run hitter if he maintains a FB% over 40. His contact profile is interesting as he has struggled to make contact with pitches in the zone but succeeded outside the zone. That is not a bad combination as those pitches in the zone are strikes whether he swings or not, and the fact he is getting to more pitches outside the zone is notable. However, the quality of contact is usually worse on pitches outside the zone, and in order to see real improvement in batting average, you would like to see him improve in the zone again next year. This is likely what Vogelbach is for fantasy, empty power. Good for DFS, not so much for season-long formats.

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. Here is a small sample:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and launched on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

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