Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 13 - Buy or Sell?

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 13! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!


Contact Rate Risers

Data current as of 6/19/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.


Harrison Bader (OF, STL)

88% contact rate last seven days (+21%)

It has not been a massively inspiring season from Bader so far. The young Cardinal has six home runs, but just three stolen bases and a .209 batting average. However, there have been some positives in the big jump in his walk rate, going from 7.3% up to 11.7%. That is reflected in his contact profile, as his discipline with pitches off the plate has seen an improvement. His O-Swing% has dropped from over 30% down to 27.6%. He has been making similar contact outside the zone, but within the zone, he has increased his contact to 88%. Both of these have combined to giving him a career-low 9.4 SwStr%. However, his patience at the plate reflecting in laying off pitches in the zone may be a little too much patience. Yes, his SwStr% is down, but his K% still remains above 25%.

The biggest issue in terms of his batting average has been his BABIP, which sits in the .273 region. Part of the reason for this can be found in his batted ball profile. His launch angle is not up that much, but the type of batted ball has changed, with a 6% drop in LD% being replaced with a 12% increase in FB%. His exit velocity remains solid and helps explain why he has a 12.5% FB/HR rate, but hitting that many fly balls are always going to result in more outs than the ideal. The other aspect to his value lies in steals, the positive is that he has successfully stolen two bases in June from two attempts. After suffering from a leg injury earlier in the season, it is hopeful that he continues to recover he can start being more productive on the base paths.


C.J. Cron (1B, MIN)

97% contact rate last seven days (+18%)

Cron is having a fantastic season so far, taking his 2018 form with the Rays to a new level. He has 17 home runs, on pace to set a new career-high, with a career-high .280 batting average. To go with that he has cut his strikeout rate to 18.8%, down from over 25% the previous two years. His contact profile shows the reason for these improvements.

While his Z-Swing% remains similar to his career average, he has never been more patient on pitches outside the zone than this season. His O-Swing% has dropped to 33%, bringing his SwStr% back down to 11.5%, helping reduce that K% and fueling a jump in batting average, despite having a similar BABIP to his career. If you drafted Cron this season then you are currently enjoying a fantastic return, and right now there is no real reason to believe regression is coming. Therefore, unless someone is willing to blow you away with an offer, look to keep riding this wonderful season from Cron.


Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

85% contact rate last seven days (+15%)

It has not been a pretty season for Bradley, especially when it comes to his lowly .215 batting average. Power wise he is on track to hit around 15 home runs, and steal double-digit bases. His strikeout rate has actually increased from last year, up to 26.1%, the highest since his third year in the league. His contact profile reflects the concern for Bradley, with an overall Contact% down 4% on his career average. That is reflected in both his Z-Contact% and his O-Contact%. Additionally, he is swinging at more pitches off the plate than he has in recent seasons, with a 30.3% O-Swing%. All of this has seen his SwStr% jump to a career-high 14.7%, which is driving the increase in K% we have seen this season.

His BABIP has also been an issue, sitting at just .273. His batted ball profile shines some light on what we have seen, with a career-low LD% and a GB% second only to his rookie season at 52.1%. His exit velocity has also dropped from a career-high 91.9 mph, which was in the top seven percent of the league last season. This season he sits dead on the 50th percentile for exit velocity, and that combined with the inflated GB% has driven a low BABIP and is contributing to a sub-par batting average. Right now it is hard to do anything but stay well clear of Bradley. He looks unlikely to hit 20 home runs again, has stolen double-digit bases just once and appears to have a low batting average ceiling. If he does remain hot the remainder of this week he is worth a speculative add in deeper five-outfielder leagues.


Contact Rate Fallers

Data current as of 6/19/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.


Ramon Laureano (OF, OAK)

48% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

It has been a solid start for Laureano this season, as he has 12 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a .262 batting average. The biggest concern is a BB% of just 4.2, and a K% of 27.2, giving him a BB/K rate of 0.15. His overall Contact% is similar to last year, but his O-Swing% has jumped to 34, and his SwStr% has gone up 1.2% to 12.8%.

Nothing there screams major concerns, and actually, he has brought his K% down from the number he posted last season. Pretty much everything he is doing this year is similar to what we saw last year, except for his launch angle, which has gone from 10.3 to 14.8 degrees. That has led to his FB% increasing, in place of his GB% dropping from over 40% to around 35%.


Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS, SD)

50% contact rate last seven days (-17%)

It has been a superb start to his major league career, with nine home runs, nine stolen bases, and a .323 batting average. His K% is extremely high at 29, and his BABIP is inflated to .427. His contact profile is on the low side, with an overall Contact% at 70, and that has led to a SwStr% of 14.1.

The current performance feels unsustainable, with a 5.5-degree launch angle, an xBA of .231 and a GB% of 50%. All of those numbers suggest that Tatis cannot keep hitting for this batting average and that he might struggle to reach double-digit home runs. In dynasty leagues, Tatis is absolutely someone to keep hold of, but in redraft leagues, there may never be a better time to season to sell high.


Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC)

67% contact rate last seven days (-16%)

I feel like we know what Anthony Rizzo is at this point. A 30ish home run hitter with a .290-.290ish batting average. His batting average is a little on the low side, thanks to a BABIP slightly on the low side and his highest K% of the last three years. His Contact% and SwStr% are slightly on the low side for his career, but in general, all of his contact profile is in a similar region to what we have seen before.

On the power side, he is currently on pace to challenge his career-high 32 home runs. Part of that is his exit velocity, which is currently the highest of his career, but in some ways that is countered with a slight decrease in launch angle. In terms of his batting average, it is interesting to see his xBA is .296, which is in the 91st percentile. Everything suggests that right now Rizzo is going to return almost exactly the value we expected on draft day, and therefore, even if this cold streak extends towards to the end of the week there should be no need to overreact.


Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. Here is a small sample:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and launched on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice and Analysis

More Recent Articles


Week 7 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 7... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Christian Kirk is not expected to play this week. David Johnson (ankle) is expected to play in Week... Read More

Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Christian Kirk is not expected to play this week. David Johnson (ankle) is expected to play in Week 7. Amari Copper (thigh) and Randall Cobb (back) are both expected... Read More

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More

Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More

Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More

The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More

Week 7 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference in winning a championship. Each week, I... Read More

Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More

Week 7 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 6 is done, and we've seen some outstanding games thus far. We've also seen a lot of surprising teams through six weeks. The San Francisco 49ers, after picking in the top 10 for four straight years, are 5-0 with one of the most complete teams in football. As far as kickers go, we're seeing... Read More

Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Joe Mixon, John Brown, Calvin Ridley

Will Week 7 be a lucky week for fantasy football players? Fantasy players will not have to worry about Jameis Winston throwing interceptions, Baker Mayfield missing receivers by miles, or backup quarterbacks ruining JuJu Smith-Schuster’s fantasy value thanks to their teams being on bye. Fantasy players will still have to win by picking the perfect... Read More

Week 7 Busts? Players To Consider Avoiding

We're almost halfway through the NFL season already. Time really does fly. At this point in the year, you should know whether your fantasy squad is a pretender or contender for a fantasy title. You may only be missing a couple of key pieces. If so, you should certainly consider trading for a player or... Read More

Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch - Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Oliver

Week 7 is here RotoBallers, which means we're smack dab in the middle of the regular fantasy season! In case you are new to this column, each week we'll highlight a few first-year players who are worth keeping your eye on. Not all of the players listed below are must-starts, but all of them are... Read More

Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 7

Every year and in every sport, a few teams march effortlessly towards the ultimate prize as if it's been preordained. When seemingly invincible teams like these are beaten, it's not always by the quality of their opponent but instead by their own psychological mindset. They look past a lesser opponent and fall victim to the... Read More