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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings picks against the spread for 9/16. He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with Week 2 results.
We had 47 FBS vs. FBS games again in Week 2, and boy were there some great ones! Even the FCS had a good week with Eastern Kentucky beating Bowling Green in SEVEN overtimes. I hope you got to watch that one. It was great, and not just because I picked EKU as my FCS pick of the week. Incarnate Word didn't leave anything to chance, beating Nevada by two touchdowns. FCS teams weren't done yet. Holy Cross beat Buffalo on the last play of the game!
What did we learn in Week 2? We still don't need a playoff of more than four teams. Preseason rankings mean absolutely nothing. Oh, and the Fun Belt might be the best conference in football. Okay...not the best. But they certainly have to be considered close to the Big 12(10) and ACC. Maybe the Pac-12 as well.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
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CFB Betting Picks 9/16:
Florida State(-2.5) at Louisville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not a fan of betting this one. If you look hard enough, you can get the Noles at -3 with no juice, which leads me to believe that Vegas really believes Louisville will take this at home. That's the way I'm leaning as well, but it's going to be a huge battle. Give me Louisville, but I wouldn't touch it.
Air Force(-16.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. I know the Falcons slaughtered Colorado, but the Ralphies might be the worst power five team this year. I'm not kidding. I don't expect Wyoming to win outright, but this feels high. Give me the Cowboys and the points in Laramie.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 2 Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 2. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Louisville at Central Florida(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams started fast, then UCF had a touchdown called back early in the second and defenses took over. That was much better news for Louisville. At this point, we really have to consider how good Syracuse is. We saw the Malik Cunningham that we're used to in this one.
Boise State(-16.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise almost gave this one away in the fourth. Call me crazy, but I still feel like Hank Bachmeier needs to play better to keep that job.
(1)Alabama(-20.5) at Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It would be easy to just sit here and bash Alabama for not playing a good game, but that just doesn't tell the whole story. The Texas defense played very well, which is something I don't think I could have said at any point last year. Quinn Ewers was moving the ball against one of the better defenses in the country before he went down, and yes, that changed the game. Hudson Card didn't play poorly, but he didn't quite have the poise that Ewers did. For all of you Texas fans declaring them "back," I really can't argue after this showing. They stood toe-to-toe with number one and could have beaten them.
Arkansas State at (3)Ohio State(-44.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
These spreads suck. Ohio State did nothing wrong and dominated the game, but still didn't cover. That's why I often don't bet these.
Southern Mississippi at (15)Miami(FL)(-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Canes dominated this game but still didn't cover. Southern Miss isn't going to be nearly as bad as last year. This defense is somewhat decent this year.
South Carolina at (16)Arkansas(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Raheim Sanders is a really good back. Spencer Rattler can put up some big numbers, but he still made a couple of critical mistakes at critical times. Oklahoma fans know this all too well.
(23)Wake Forest(-12.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vanderbilt played the part for the first 20 minutes or so, then they fell apart. Wake is a different team with Sam Hartman back there. They are still a contender in the ACC this year.
Missouri at Kansas State(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Deuce Vaughn carries this K-State offense. Adrian Martinez has been solid so far, but I do wonder how much the Wildcats are going to let him go as the season goes on. Vaughn can't handle this kind of workload and still be effective due to his diminutive stature.
Duke at Northwestern(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This isn't the first time that Nebraska has made a team look better than they actually are. Duke controlled this game for most of the contest. The Blue Devils are better than last year, but there is no way they should have been able to do this to a team that dominated Nebraska in the trenches in Week 0.
Ohio at Penn State(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nicholas Singleton ran wild on the Bobcats. If he can give Penn State the run game they have lacked since Miles Sanders went pro in 2018, this is a very different team.
North Carolina(-7.5) at Georgia State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Bit by the half. North Carolina's defense is a real problem...again. The only difference is that they no longer have Sam Howell to bail them out. Drake Maye and Omarion Hampton look like gems though.
UTSA(-2.5) at Army: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Frank Harris is sure fun to watch, isn't he? Zakhari Franklin is still the best receiver you've never heard of.
South Alabama at Central Michigan(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Toledo transfer Carter Bradley is off to a great start for the Jaguars. That Central Michigan defense has been a serious problem thus far.
Western Michigan(-6.5) at Ball State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Broncos actually had to lean on the passing game to pull this one out. Remember the name Corey Crooms for our mid-week MACtion starting next month!
Marshall at (8)Notre Dame(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yes, I was surprised that Marshall won. No, I was not surprised that the Notre Dame offense was still a disaster.
Appalachian State at (6)Texas A&M(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I wasn't a bit surprised that Appalachian State won this game. For any underdog, just look at what the Mountaineers did in this game, and have done in their previous upsets: they NEVER stray from their game plans. If A&M was going to blow them out like Vegas thought they would, they were damn sure going to do it with App State playing their game. To the surprise of few, A&M wasn't able to do it. As I said, I wasn't brave enough to bet the App State moneyline, but I ended up going heavy on this spread.
(24)Tennessee(-6.5) at (17)Pittsburgh: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know, if Pitt didn't have to go with Nick Patti after Kedon Slovis went down, I think the final result would have been different. Pitt's defense played very well in the second half.
Washington State at (19)Wisconsin(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one shocked me more than App State topping A&M, especially after the way that the Cougars looked against Idaho. This was the Cougars' first win against a ranked team since 2018. It seems weird to say that since they were largely considered a success under Mike Leach, even at the end of his tenure.
Colorado at Air Force(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I thought about flipping this considering it was going to be a slog. I'm glad I didn't. The Falcons are easily that much better than the Ralphies right now.
Memphis(-4.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this anyway. Navy is lost right now. Sean Henigan is finally morphing into Paxton Lynch.
Maryland(-26.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Taulia Tagovailoa had as many incompletions as touchdown passes (4). This Maryland offense is really good.
Akron at (14)Michigan State(-36.5): HIT
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Not much to say about this. At least no one got hurt...
(25)Houston at Texas Tech(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tyler Shough is probably no longer the starter in Lubbock. Houston and Texas Tech are getting a nice start to a rivalry that should heat up when the Cougars join the Big 12(10). That said...why is a 4.5 point favorite tearing down the goalposts despite not covering? That's Vegas for you!
UNLV at California(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV is a different animal than they were last year. It's not just the emergence of Ricky White. This defense played well against the Bears. Cal has some good young talent there, but there are going to be some growing pains. This is a game that the Bears were fortunate to win. They would have lost this had they played a better team.
Iowa State at Iowa(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Iowa offense is one of the worst I have ever seen. Tell me a FBS starter worse than Spencer Petras. I'll wait for you to try and find one...
Virginia at Illinois(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Three points. That's all Virginia scored in this game. Just for a refresher, Brennan Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last year. And they could only score three points. Either this Illinois defense is MUCH better than we think or Virginia is in some serious trouble.
Middle Tennessee State at Colorado State(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is money to be made if you see Vegas overreact to a big loss. That's what happened here. Chase Cunningham isn't as bad as James Madison made him look.
Kansas at West Virginia(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas became the first FBS team ever to win an overtime game by double digits. After scoring a touchdown in their overtime possession, the Jayhawks got a pick-6 to win by 13! What a game this was. Kansas is going to be fun to watch this year. Now if only ESPN weren't dicks and put all these games on ESPN+...
Old Dominion at East Carolina(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sometimes I forget how good that ECU offense can be. I also sometimes forget that Virginia Tech is just a name right now and has been for about three years.
UAB(-5.5) at Liberty: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm a big believer in Dewayne McBride, but UAB's inconsistency at QB has gotten to the point where it is costing them games. What good is running for 200 yards when you can't throw to move the ball?
Kent State at Oklahoma(-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Again, Oklahoma dominated this game and didn't do anything wrong, but they still didn't cover. I liked the play of the defense but was hoping to see a little more from the offense.
(20)Kentucky at (12)Florida(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So, tell me again how Emory Jones was the problem for the Gators last year? I don't doubt the talent of Anthony Richardson, but he made a lot of poor decisions in this game that repeatedly gave Kentucky chances to get extra possessions. This was a winnable game for Florida even with all of those errors, but Richardson can't get out of the offense's way.
Syracuse(-23.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like the play of Garrett Shrader and Sean Tucker is a freaking beast. The Orange are going to make a lot of noise in the ACC this year. They walloped a vastly improved UConn team.
Massachusetts at Toledo(-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I bet at least a small amount against UMass every week, but I know that when I finally do go bigger, they won't get covered...
Northern Illinois at Tulsa(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm glad I went with a minimum bet so I could just enjoy this game.
Eastern Michigan at Louisiana(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game just got away from the Eagles. I didn't feel like they were playing that poorly...then bam! Down three scores.
Florida International at Texas State(-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
After getting blown out by Texas State, FIU has to be in the discussion for the worst FBS team.
(10)USC(-8.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Two turnovers inside the five ruined Stanford's first half. The Cardinal were able to move the ball almost at will. USC is an exciting offense to watch, but that defense is keeping them from being an elite team.
Arizona State at (11)Oklahoma State(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was what the Cowboys fans wanted to see from that vaunted defensive line. They made life tough for that entire offense and did a great job on a great back in Xazavian Valladay.
San Jose State at Auburn(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is what the Spartans were expecting from Chevan Cordeiro and the pair of receivers they picked up from Nevada. I was really impressed with the defensive job on Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter. Those are two really good backs and the Spartans contained them pretty well. There's a reason I didn't bet this. I really don't trust the Auburn passing game and you shouldn't either.
Georgia Southern at Nebraska(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win here, but I said last night that Frost would be gone this week. Yeah, the buyout would have been less in a few weeks, but you don't get the team fired up against a storied rival like Oklahoma by keeping a lame-duck coach. From most accounts, Frost lost the fans but not the team. Nebraska did this now for one reason only: to get the team fired up enough to beat Oklahoma. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Kyle Vantrease, a guy that got smashed by Nebraska as the QB for Buffalo last year, comes back in and lights up the Huskers this year.
Hawaii at (4)Michigan(-51.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It wasn't the experimenting quarterbacks that cost Michigan the cover. This was just WAY too many points...
Boston College at Virginia Tech(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is what we expected from the Hokies in Week 1. The defense locked down a decent BC offense and the offense was serviceable enough to get the win.
New Mexico State at UTEP(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was one of the worst games I've watched in the last three years. UTEP should have dominated this game, but couldn't get out of their own way.
(9)Baylor at (21)BYU(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's what I get for being a sheeple and following the preseason polls. BYU had proven more than Baylor so far and was at home. The Baylor defense looks pretty solid. The offense could have some issues.
Oregon State at Fresno State(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Historically, the Bulldogs have owned the Pac-12 in Fresno. Not this time! The Beavers pull this out on the last play of the game! Oregon State isn't good enough to win the conference, but they are going to make someone stumble this year. They get both USC and Oregon in Corvallis this year.
Mississippi State(-10.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona still has some maturing to do. They just got underwater and dimed to death by the Leaches. The Bulldogs' defense was better than advertised. They locked down Jacob Cowing and forced Jayden de Laura into uncharacteristic mistakes.
College Football Betting Season Results:
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I kept above .500 with a 24-23 week. That doesn't help my goal of a 55% success rate much, but any time I can get out of September without a losing record, I'm happy. That puts me at 52-48 on the season. That's great and all, but we're here for the points, right?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-3 (6-5) = 1
2. 8-12 (16-20) = -8
3. 10-4 (20-13) = 21
4. 3-3 (6-7) = -4
5. 1-1 (4-3) = 5
I came out nine points ahead for the second straight week. That puts 15 points in my bank for this season and brings my running total from 4+ seasons up to 90 points. We're still coming out ahead, and that's what really matters!
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