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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings picks against the spread for 9/10. He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We had a nice little warmup with Week 0. There were seven FBS vs. FBS games and no FCS teams pulled upsets. A spirited and short-handed Florida A&M team gave the Tarheels a fight for about 40 minutes but got run into the ground in the last third of the game. That part is over now. The results will be tallied at the bottom of this piece. On to Week 1!
What did we learn in Week 0? Nebraska will never get out of its own way. Vandy is going to be dangerous in the SEC East. Continuity means a lot. So do new coaches. Jerry Kill and Jim Mora Jr. have spirited teams that will fight even if the talent isn't quite there yet.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
CFB Betting Picks 9/1 And 9/2:
Central Michigan at (12)Oklahoma State(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Chippewas came into Stillwater back in 2016 and beat Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys. That doesn't mean much for this matchup, but Central Michigan was a different team once Daniel Richardson took over last year. They also return Lew Nichols III, who ran for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. There has been a lot of chatter about Oklahoma State this year. Some say they're good enough to win the Big 12(10) behind Spencer Sanders and Brennan Presley. The Oklahoma State defense will be tested here. I'm a little worried about the Chips' defense, but this feels high. Give me CMU.
West Virginia at (17)Pittsburgh(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Backyard Brawl in Week 1? Hell yes! Both teams have new quarterbacks that were once upon a time at USC (JT Daniels at WVU and Kedon Slovis at Pitt). The loss of Jordan Addison is huge for Pitt, but I'm also a fan of Jared Wayne. There is still plenty of talent on both sides of this. I like Pitt, but I feel like Jarret Doege held the Mountaineers back last year, not the other way around. Now that they have a quarterback like Daniels, I feel like Pitt winning by more than one score is a tall order, especially in a rivalry like this. Give me West Virginia and the points, though I still think Pitt wins.
Ball State at Tennessee(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like a lot, but Ball State lost both Drew Plitt and Carson Steele. I'm a big fan of Justin Hall, but who is going to throw to him? This Tennessee offense is going be to explosive again behind Hendon Hooker and Jabari Small. I'll take the Vols at home. This should get ugly.
Penn State(-3.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Say what? This looks backward. I trust Aiden O'Connell more than Sean Clifford. Give me Purdue straight up!
Louisiana Tech at Missouri(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This looks a little high for a gutted Missouri offense and a defense that wasn't all that great last year anyway. The Bulldogs only won three games last year, but there is reason for optimism with former TCU quarterback Matthew Downing coming in and last year's leading receiver Smoke Harris still with the team. I think Missouri wins, but not by this number. I'll take La Tech.
New Mexico State at Minnesota(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
How much of Nevada struggling was because of New Mexico State's defense or because of the reloading offense? That's a fair question. All I know is that the Jerry Kill era in Minnesota didn't end well or amicably. This date has been circled on Kill's calendar since he took the job. The Aggies had a severe case of the dropsies against Nevada. That will have to be fixed before this game. I don't think the coaching staff intended to turn Gavin Frakes loose just yet, but injuries forced their hand. I don't think he's good enough to go into Minneapolis and win, but this stays closer than this ridiculous spread. The Aggies showed heart last week.
Western Michigan at (15)Michigan State(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is all over the place, so shop around. It's down under 20 in places. It shouldn't be. The Broncos' strength is their running game of La'Darius Jefferson and Sean Tyler. Run defense is the strength of the Spartans. Peyton Thorne is more than just a game manager. Transfers Jalen Berger from Wisconsin and Jarek Broussard from Colorado will fill in just nicely for Kenneth Walker III. Spartans by A LOT!
Virginia Tech(-8.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I think Marshall transfer Grant Wells and Temple transfer Jadan Blue are going to jump-start this Hokies offense. I'll take Tech by double digits!
Temple at Duke(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Looking at these two rosters, I see more talent – especially on offense – on the side of the Owls. D'Wan Mathis is a nice talent. Illinois transfer Jakari Norwood could have himself a nice season in this offense. Jalon Calhoun is going to be a problem for Temple, but in order to be a problem, he has to have someone that can throw him the ball. There's no Matteo Durant. There's no Gunnar Holmberg. I have a really hard time seeing Duke winning this game. I'll take Temple.
Illinois at Indiana(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Week 0 clearly had an impact on this line. Chase Brown went nuts on Wyoming and the bettors are thinking he might do the same to Indiana. I honestly don't know what to think of this. Is Indiana really any better with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak? I have my doubts. Still, I don't know if I believe in the Illini just yet. Give me Indiana, but there's no way I would bet this.
TCU(-10.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. I know the Ralphies lost Jarek Broussard, but Alex Fontenot is still a solid back and Brendon Lewis is still there. It's not like TCU didn't lose anything either. Zach Evans is gone, and the offense was average even with his explosiveness last year. I'll take the Ralphies at home. At the very least this is too many. I wouldn't be all that surprised if Colorado won outright.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 0 Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 0. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Nebraska(-11.5) vs. Northwestern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
New year, same old Nebraska. The players have changed. Some of the coaches have changed. The errors have not. Dropped passes turned into interceptions. Players who were making plays don't get second looks. The one surprise of this game was the Nebraska defense. They really couldn't stop the Wildcats, and that was supposed to be a strength. The offense was supposed to be the concern.
How far has Nebraska fallen? Even the fans aren't really upset about this anymore. They are dead inside as far as football is concerned. There was a time when this state shut down on football Saturdays. Now only the hardcore fans notice that there is even a game going on.
Now it's time for the ugly of it all. Nebraska is 5-21 in one-score games under Scott Frost. They have lost seven straight of those contests and are the first team to do so since Iowa State in 2014-16. In fact, Nebraska's last seven games have all been one-score losses. They are the first team ever to have that happen. Nebraska has now lost three straight season openers for the first time since 1953-55. Yeah, 2020 was Ohio State, but so it goes. On the other side? Pat Fitzgerald has 49 wins in one-score games. That's tied for the most among active FBS coaches.
Connecticut at Utah State(-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have lowered the bet more. I was afraid of this. UConn came out fighting. If they hadn't lost their top receiver and starting quarterback before the first quarter was even over, they might have hung around even longer. The UConn defense definitely did their part.
Wyoming at Illinois(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was always a supporter of Lovie Smith at Illinois. I thought it was a great hire. Illinois also never looked like this under Lovie. Chase Brown is a great back for the Big 10(14). He's a workhorse with decent size and a good burst.
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was an impressive performance by the Owls. Even without Jerome Ford, this offense looked in sync and the defense clamped down on Charlotte for the second straight year. It's never a bad feeling to start conference play 1-0, even if it is in "week 0."
North Texas at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Gavin Hardison played pretty well. So did Tyrin Smith taking over as the lead receiver. That UTEP defense is a problem though. Austin Aune looked in command of this North Texas offense – something that I couldn't truthfully say at any point last season.
Nevada(-8.5) at New Mexico State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I had to sweat out a five-pointer, so I guess I'm picking up where I left off last season. I was impressed with the Aggies on both sides of the ball in this one. I've been unfortunate enough to watch this team several times in the last five years or so, and I've never seen the Aggies play like this. They came up just short, but Gavin Frakes has the look of a good quarterback. It will be interesting to see how many wins the Aggies can poach this year. They are finally playing with a purpose.
Vanderbilt(-9.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I got caught up in all the hype that Hawaii finally had fans for the first time since 2019 and Timmy Chang taking over the Warriors in the return of the prodigal son. I didn't expect Vanderbilt to show out like this. There should be some cautious optimism out of Nashville right now. I don't think that Hawaii is quite as bad as the Commodores made them look.
College Football Betting Season Results:
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I went 3-4 in Week 0 and lost three betting points. That leaves my bank at 75 points after four seasons (and seven games). The first couple of weeks are usually pretty difficult, so you won't always see large bets out of me early on. I like to see what I'm getting into first.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-0 (1-0) = 1
2. 0-1 (0-1) = -2
3. 1-2 (1-2) = -3
4. 0-1 (0-1) = -4
5. 1-0 (1-0) = 5
College football finally begins in earnest over Labor Day weekend. It all starts on Thursday and we have at least one college game every day until Monday. How about we just cancel the NFL and do this every weekend!
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