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NFL running back Chris Thompson is a potential 2020 fantasy football sleeper and ADP draft value. Target him as an undervalued RB in fantasy football drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~120 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~180+ (Undrafted)
UPDATE 8/31: On Monday August 31st, Leonard Fournette was officially released by the Jaguars. You can read the full news and analysis here. More updates will be provided shortly, but this should increase the value for Chris Thompson even further, especially in PPR leagues.
ANALYSIS: Chris Thompson has been one of the most format-dependent running backs in fantasy football since he first earned significant playing time in 2015. When healthy, he’s regularly been a solid option as a flex in PPR leagues. Thompson enters his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, after seven years with the Washington Redskins.
Over the last three years, Thompson has averaged 3.94 receptions per game and 6.92 yards per target. While Thompson’s production dipped from 2017 to the two following years, the dip only seems so significant because his 2017 campaign was so exceptional. Even with that bump down in numbers, Thompson still finished 2019 with 42 receptions over 11 games and 9.0 yards per reception (378 total yards), making it clear that he still has some gas in the tank.
Leonard Fournette was a workhorse for the Jaguars in 2019, totaling 265 rushes for 1,152 yards and 76 receptions for 522 yards on 100 targets. No one is moving him from the RB1 role of the team, and only an eventual trade out of town will see him out of that position. Thompson's real competition will come from second-year running back Ryquell Armstead, who didn’t flash a ton of upside as a rookie logging 35 carries for 108 yards in 2019 while adding 14 receptions for 144 yards on 24 targets.
In a worst-case scenario for Thompson, Fournette would retain his workload from 2019 and Thompson would be relegated to a third-down role and probably around five targets per game. Considering Thompson is currently the RB60 off the board (undrafted in most redraft leagues) he could turn into a fantastic value-pick. He doesn’t have low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 upside, but so few running backs taken outside of the top 150 do. Good last-round pick to slot in your FLEX position, and potentially great handcuff considering Fournette could be traded in the middle of the season or get back to his injury woes of years past.
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