X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Catcher ADPs - Overvalued and Undervalued

Jeff Kahntroff looks at some overvalued and undervalued catchers for 2017 fantasy baseball. These Cs may be ADP draft values and sleepers or busts.

For standard, one catcher leagues, I either want one of the top four catchers (where Schwarber qualifies at catcher), or I want one of the last catchers. The top four catchers seem to be valued properly, but if one slips, go for it. While any individual taken fifth through eleventh in the catcher world could be decently better than the twelfth catcher, you likely can find an adequate replacement on waivers. That is, the field of twelfth through twentieth catchers should likely yield a better value than using a mid-round pick on a catcher.

Thus, it makes more sense to gamble on an upside catcher at the end of the draft. If the player flops, you can just replace him with an adequate waiver claim. If you instead drafted a low-ceiling catcher at the end of the draft, you would be limiting your upside without gaining much in terms of floor.

This strategic consideration will run through my valuations. In two-catcher leagues, however, that goes out the window; second and third tier catchers would hold a lot more value.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Catchers

Austin Hedges           

ADP: 297
MY RANK: 215

Hedges was a recent top twenty prospect by Baseball America, and a top thirty prospect by MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Yes, those ratings were largely based on his defense, but they suggest he has talent, and catchers’ bats typically develop later. Last year in 82 games in AAA (yes, the PCL), he hit .326 with 21 homers and 82 RBIs. In 82 games, he had 42 extra base hits: more than one every other game. He had a reasonable strikeout rate. He is just 24 years old, and he may be coming into his own.

With a spot in the lineup, and Tom Murphy suffering a broken arm, there is no better upside play than Hedges. With an ADP of 297, you should be able to get him in the last round. Take the gamble, and if he flops, go to the waiver wire for one of the many, higher floor options.

 

Wilson Ramos

ADP: 271
MY RANK: 357

I don’t like players coming off of injuries, but Ramos is not being drafted in most standard leagues (ADP 271). Why not draft him in the last round, put him on your DL, and then pick up a player such as Hedges off of waivers to fill the roster slot? I had suggested Ramos as a late round flier last year, and he did not disappoint: he posted a line of .307/22/58/80. While that may seem like an extreme outlier, his 162 game career averages are .269/23/62/89. Even though catchers don’t play 162 games, it still shows that Ramos has been a steady hitter with upside. Because you can stash him on the DL, he should be drafted and stashed, freeing up another roster slot. My ranking only reflects his value for the year as a non-DL stash, so I would still recommend stashing him despite my rank.

 

Tom Murphy

ADP: 229
MY RANK: 267

Along those same lines, while Tom Murphy has a late round ADP, with his injury he likely will go undrafted. Selecting him in the last round, and stashing him on the DL to pick up Hedges would also be wise. Yes, Murphy was in Colorado Springs in the PCL, but he did post a line of .327/19/53/59/1 in 80 games. Moreover, he had 52 extra base hits in 80 games! In 21 MLB games, he hit .273 with five homers, eight runs, 13 RBIs and a steal. The strikeouts will likely keep the average down, but he could give you loads of power and a few steals, making him a great value. You could also snag Wolters, who has a chance to put up 10 homers and 10 steals with a .260 average, while waiting on Murphy; if Wolters does well, you win. If not, Murphy likely takes over.

 

Overvalued Catchers

Willson Contreras

ADP: 90
MY RANK: 105

Contreras is going 90th. He did burst onto the scene with a hot start, but after the break (52 games), he hit .271/7/22/19/2. Project that to 130 games, and you get .271/18/55/48/5. Steamer is projecting .271/13/48/54/5. Those numbers do not jump off the page to me, and his minor-league numbers don’t scream anything much different. Yes, he hit for a high average in the minors the last two years, but he did so with less power one year and BABIPs of .370 and .382. Even if Contreras were to go .280/20/60/60, that does not make him worth the 90th pick. There, I would rather go with a closer (Ken Giles), an infielder (Jose Ramirez), an outfielder (Jose Bautista), a starter (Danny Duffy), or someone who has a higher ADP but slipped. The waiver wire can probably provide slightly less production than Contreras, but you cannot get a similar closer, starter, or infielder/outfielder as easily off waivers.

 

Salvador Perez

ADP: 132
MY RANK: 213

My knock on Perez is less about his performance, and more about the fact that I do not want a non-elite catcher here. Perez has been very steady, as these are his last three years:

AVG HR R RBI SB
2014 .260 17 57 70 1
2015 .260 21 52 70 1
2016 .247 22 57 64 0

 

Steamer projects .263/19/54/65/1. That seems reasonable. But why take him at 131, when catchers who can do similar things (Vogt, McCann, Martin, Wieters) are going much later? And that is if you choose not to play the waiver wire. At 132, you are passing up players like Jake Lamb, Michael Fulmer, Byron Buxton, Francisco Rodriguez, Sam Dyson, Aledmys Diaz, and Tony Watson, who are all being drafted from 131-150. For a slight downgrade in catcher, if any, you can get a major upgrade on one of these other positions. Wouldn’t you rather have a decent closer and a slightly worse catcher, than Perez and whoever is available in the last round? It seems like a no-brainer.

In two catcher leagues, Wieters, Vogt, and Grandal may be some value plays to target, with an eye on Travis D’Arnaud as a bounceback candidate. I would not, however, draft these players at their ADP in one catcher leagues.

 

More Undervalued & Overvalued Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
NFL

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF