X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Can We Trust Kawhi Leonard in Fantasy?

It's hard not to lay out an argument either for or against Kawhi Leonard in any scenario, real or fantasy, without mentioning trust. It's the foundation upon which teamwork and chemistry are built. It's essential in a game where five men work together on the court in order to achieve a common goal. It's crucial for a player that wants to be considered a superstar and is looking for a max contract in a big market city, as well as looking to grow his own brand.

Trust was completely broken in San Antonio after Leonard sat almost the entire season despite being cleared by the Spurs' training staff in late February. He was then unceremoniously shipped to Toronto, where it was then reported he did not want to play. Although he's shown up, smiled for the cameras (sort of), and looked fine in his first preseason game, can the Raptors trust that he'll give them 100% all season while biding time to move to L.A. in 2019?

For fantasy purposes, we have a lot less invested in Leonard than the Raptors or any of his potential suitors do, but a first-round pick can make or break your team. With relatively safe plays like Paul George, Damian Lillard, and Chris Paul available at the turn of most fantasy basketball drafts, is it safe to take a chance on Kawhi Leonard as a top-15 pick?

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Undeniable Talent

By a measure of pure talent alone, the easy answer is yes. In the 2016-17 season, before the injuries and all the drama, Leonard was a top-10 fantasy player. His 48.5% field goal percentage was 14th-best among small forwards with at least 100 attempts and fifth-best at shooting guard, where he also qualifies. He was 18th in defensive rebounding among small forwards and sixth at shooting guard. In terms of blocks, he finished 10th at SF, third at SG. His 133 steals were tied with Russell Westbrook for seventh among all NBA players. Then there's the fact he finished fourth in points scored. You get the idea - he's good at basketball in every way.

Leonard should be a no-brainer in the first round as someone who can contribute in every roto counting category at a high level without sacrificing percentages. For god's sake, he even shot 88% from the free throw line that year. But two issues obviously remain: a new team environment and a questionable expectation of playing time based on health and character issues.

 

The Raptor Way?

Leonard is swapping place with fan favorite and former face of the franchise, DeMar DeRozan. They are not quite the same type of player but that's what both teams had in mind when making this blockbuster deal. The Spurs were looking for a quiet, unassuming All-Star to fit alongside LaMarcus Aldridge while ridding themselves of the Kawhi headache. The Raptors, meanwhile, needed to shake up a team that couldn't get over the hump despite regular season success and wanted to find a player who can perform at his very best in the playoffs. It would seem both got what they needed.

DeRozan, who has never been one to seek media attention the way many NBA stars do, should acclimate to Coach Pop's system rather easily in his workmanlike way once he adjusts to being outside the only team he's ever known. Leonard brings a Finals MVP award along with 87 games of playoff experience to the table. His Playoffs per game scoring average over his last three postseason appearances climbed from 20.3 to 22.5 to 27.7. DeRozan, by contrast, had seemingly plateaued by averaging 20.9, 22.4 then 22.7. DeRozan saw his minutes drop this past postseason while his FG% stayed at 43.7%. Leonard shot 53.8% from the field in the 16-17 playoffs, all while playing superior defense. It's clear that Toronto got the better talent of the two, so shouldn't it be easy to ascertain that fantasy owners should make Leonard a priority selection?

While Leonard has been growing each season as a player, he now must assimilate into a new system and a different culture. The Raptors hired assistant Nick Nurse to be the new head coach after firing Dwane Casey days after their postseason sweep in Cleveland. There is no way to have a full grasp of how the team will operate under a first-year coach, but Nurse was credited for opening up the offense and incorporating more outside shooting while under Casey, with a bigger focus on the three-point shot. The Raptors took the third-most three-pointers per game last year at 33, all the way up from 22nd in the league at 24.3 per game in 2016-17. Leonard had seen his 3PA rise up to 5.2 per game in 16-17, marking a career-high and surpassing DeRozan. We might expect this level to sustain itself in a less conservative offense than San Antonio, meaning a slight uptick is possible in the three-point categories.

In terms of shooting and scoring overall, there's little doubt the Raptors will run the offense through Leonard. He took an average of 17.7 shots per game in his last full season, scoring 25.5 points. DeRozan had an identical total last season at 17.7 shots each night, but only scored 23 points per game. The reason is that he posted an effective field goal percentage of 48.8% while Leonard's eFG was 54.1%. It stands to reason Leonard will see no downturn in the offensive categories. One slight concern might be that he will be used less often as a point-forward to bring the ball downcourt as he did in San Antonio. Coach Popovich has used many players in this role, including Manu Ginobili and Kyle Anderson. This is a non-issue, however, since Leonard averages 2.3 assists for his career and was used simply as a ball-carrier rather than a passer. As long as Leonard is healthy, his rebounding, shot-blocking, stealing and defensive prowess should remain the same as well.

 

The Caveat

All told, Leonard should have no problem at least replicating, if not exceeding, the All-Star level he exhibited when he played with the Spurs. Toronto posted the second-highest Adjusted Offensive Rating of all teams at 114.5, behind only Houston. San Antonio was 17th last year but finished second in 2016-17 when Leonard played 74 games. The Raptors were sixth that year. It's obvious how big of an impact he has. Leonard just turned 27 years old and with just six full seasons under his belt (and plenty of rest last year), he should be in prime form. This absolutely makes him a first-round pick in fantasy leagues. Now, here's the caveat.

It's never been admitted and possibly never will, but Leonard could and should have played through the latter part of the 2017-18 season and joined his team for the playoffs. He chose not to. Even the most ardent Kawhi fan couldn't tell you with a straight face that he was so injured that he was incapable of playing until the moment he was traded this offseason. As we've seen with him and now again with Le'Veon Bell in the NFL, as well as certain NCAA football players foregoing bowl games in order to preserve their bodies for big contracts, cash rules everything. If Leonard feels the slightest tweak or believes he is not getting enough rest, or simply wants to sit out part of the season with an "undisclosed injury" in order to make sure he's 100% ready to pass his physical for the Clippers, Lakers, or whoever his uncle insists should sign him, it will happen. The stats will be there, the impact will be felt, but for how many games? Much like Joel Embiid, a part-time All Star is great when he's on the court, but at that price point, you may prefer 70+ games of slightly less talent in order to ensure a more successful squad. If you trust Leonard more than I do and throw caution to the wind, by all means make him a first-round pick. If you read the warning signs and understand that he may not be fully invested in playing this season out for a team he never wanted to join, you may want to pass for now and let someone else inherit that risk.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF