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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 3

After two weeks, we're starting to get a sense of which players had a couple of good games early on and who is legitimately off to a hot start in 2017. I'm all in on the Reds at the moment, but since I've already advocated for Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza plenty, I'll look for some other names here.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include at least one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 3

Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) 23% owned

The Reds had been trying to trade Phillips for years and fantasy owners had gotten into the habit of ignoring him outright since 2014 when he had a disappointing showing. All he did was hit .294 and .291 the last two seasons with double-digit totals in homers and steals, along with 60+ runs and RBI. At age 35, his best years are well behind him, but Phillips still retains a fairly high floor. We don't know what Atlanta's new stadium will be like for hitters just yet, but it's unlikely to be as hitter-friendly as the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. That shouldn't stop Phillips from posting strong OBP numbers and contributing across multiple categories as usual. He's already got an 0.67 BB/K, which would be the best of his career by far. He hasn't gone deep yet, but seeing him near the top of the stolen base leaders with three in just two weeks is a very good sign. Phillips is a great MI option in 12+ team leagues and should be added in all such leagues.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 89% owned

When you see Marcell Ozuna's name at the top of the leaderboard for RBI with 16, you may think this is a great time to sell high. Not so fast, my friend. Ozuna was an All-Star last season based on the strength of his outstanding first half in which he hit .307 with 17 HR, 47 RBI, and 52 R. He wasn't nearly the same in the second half, hitting almost 100 points lower with just six homers the rest of the way. Despite logging 607 at-bats and never seeing the DL, he may have been bothered by a nagging wrist injury, according to reports. Ozuna's hot hand shouldn't be dismissed - if anything this may be the time to field offers from an Ozuna owner who thinks he's netting a profit by unloading him.

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) 96% owned

It's funny how quickly some people were ready to write off Cole after one rough start at Fenway Park. It was an ugly game to be sure, as he gave up five ER in five innings on Opening Day, striking out just two batters. After the first inning of his next start, the Twitter world seemed ready to outright Cole back to Indianapolis, when he allowed two runs, including a homer to Dansby Swanson. He settled down to earn a quality start, if not a victory. His third start went even better, as he held the defending champion Cubs (I'll never get used to saying that) to two runs, six hits and one walk over six IP. He's never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but he can get to 200 over the course of a full season and he's shown a characteristically low BB/9 (2.12) as usual. Put out some feelers for Cole because his stock won't get much lower than it is at the moment, considering he's the #1 arm on a fairly good team.

Cam Bedrosian (RP, LAA) - 74% owned

If not for Mike Scioscia's stubbornness, Bedrock would have been a top-15 closer candidate before the season even started. Skepticism over Bedrosian's role has kept his ownership just below three-fourths, but we have to take the long-term approach when evaluating this situation. Huston Street has no business pitching in the ninth inning these days. He is yet to recover from a Grade 1 lat strain and even when he returns he will have to prove that last year's horrible ratios (6.45 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 1.17 K/BB) were an aberration. Bedrosian, by contrast, has been flawless in his three appearances this season and has raised last year's 31.5% K% up to 41.7%. When all is said and done, Bedrosian should outperform many mid-tier closers that were drafted several rounds earlier.

 

Overrated Players - Week 3

Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, CHC) 87% owned

To be clear, I am a big fan of Baez as a player and a person, just not in fantasy. On any other team, Baez would have a chance to show off his power, along with the accompanying strikeouts, on a regular basis. In Chicago, he is simply a utility player that sees about two AB per game. The bottom line is that his upside is limited to his power potential and he won't possibly hit as many as 20 HR in his current role. He's a .243 hitter in the majors, he whiffs on nearly 30% of his at-bats and he's only stolen as many as 20 bases once in his career, which came in Single-A. To think that he was taken before Jake Lamb and a full 150 picks before Eugenio Suarez or Yangeris Solarte in NFBC drafts should make you realize that the big market bias affects us all, and not for the better.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) 83% owned

Last week, I compared Pederson unfavorably to Nomar Mazara in an effort to show how Mazara would provide better value in every category other than homers. Pederson went off in an Opening Day rout of the Padres, jacking his first homer early on and driving in five. Since then, he has one RBI in eight games and more strikeouts (eight) than hits (five). Pederson isn't quite Chris Carter, but he does remind one of Rob Deer far too often, providing barely more than double the RBI total per home run. His current .250 average is higher than he's hit during his Major League tenure, so there isn't much more to look forward to. If you can keep him as a third or fourth outfielder in a deep league and offset his low average with the rest of your squad, by all means keep him. If you'd rather get more bang for your buck across other categories, you might want to deal him to another owner who still thinks his best is yet to come.

Zack Greinke (SP, ARI) 97% owned

I've been selling Greinke since Spring Training and will continue to do so. Greinke's first couple starts had his owners breathing a sigh of relief and many proclaiming last year was just an outlier. Then, he slipped in his showdown against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, allowing five ER in five innings. It's true that Greinke's velocity is down at least half a mile per hour and he wasn't even clocked as high as 90 in the spring. His slider has seen an even bigger dip at four MPH less than 2015, before he came to the desert. Here's visual proof, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

That alone may not be enough to avoid him, but the fact that opposing hitters keep making higher contact rates and Chase Field seems to be the new Coors should be.

Joaquin Benoit (RP, PHI) 49% owned

Few people expected that the 36-year old Benoit would be one of the hottest adds in the early part of season. In one of my leagues, someone went so far as to spend $40 of FAAB to acquire him (a keeper league no less!). As it turns out, the Phillies decided to bequeath the closer role to Benoit rather than young flamethrower Hector Neris once Jeanmar Gomez imploded. The problem is that Benoit won't be good for more than two months of value, max. The club is likely trying to increase the reliever's value in order to get a better return once he is flipped before the trade deadline. Neris should then take over permanently. Even so, you should temper expectations with what Benoit can deliver. He has delivered better ratios in the later years of his career, but be warned that he walked 4.5 per nine innings last season and is on his fourth team in three season for a reason.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joe Mixon

Not Expected to Play This Season
Chris Godwin

Attending Thursday's Practice
Bucky Irving

Continues Practice Attendance
Rasmus Andersson

Bags Three Points Wednesday Night
Morgan Geekie

Nets Two Power-Play Goals Wednesday
Joe Burrow

Bengals Haven't Ruled Out Joe Burrow for Week 12
Connor McMichael

Posts Three Assists in Wednesday's Win
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Place Alexander Romanov on Injured Reserve
Lars Eller

to Miss Thursday's Action
Nic Dowd

Out on Thursday
Adam Lowry

Inks Extension With Jets
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Likely Out on Thursday
Zaccharie Risacher

Questionable for Thursday
Kristaps Porzingis

at Risk of Missing Another Game
Paolo Banchero

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Kawhi Leonard

Remains Out Against Magic
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Ruled Out for Two Weeks
Tyler Herro

Targeting Return on Monday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited in Practice on Wednesday
Jerami Grant

Available Wednesday Night
Jalen Brunson

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Jalen Smith

Available to Play Wednesday
Tre Jones

Downgraded to Out
Shaedon Sharpe

Misses Wednesday's Game
Dereck Lively II

Cleared for Action Wednesday
Daniel Gafford

Available Wednesday
Caleb Martin

Won't Play Against Knicks
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Lamar Jackson

Absent Due to Ankle Injury
Marvin Bagley III

Starts on Wednesday
Mike Conley

Joins Starting Unit Wednesday
Saddiq Bey

Cleared for Wednesday's Action
Zion Williamson

Returns to Action Wednesday
Aaron Gordon

Out Wednesday
Cooper Flagg

Won't Play Wednesday
Conor Garland

to Return on Thursday
Thomas Harley

to Miss Road Trip
Eetu Luostarinen

Out Week-to-Week After Barbecue Accident
Curtis Lazar

to Miss at Least Three Games
Vladimir Tarasenko

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Mikael Granlund

Remains Out Wednesday
Charlie McAvoy

Out Indefinitely After Facial Surgery
Joe Burrow

to Potentially Return in Week 12?
Aaron Rodgers

Out on Wednesday, Hopes to Practice Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Not Seen at Wednesday's Practice
Dak Prescott

Lands on Injury Report Ahead of Week 12 With Hip Injury
Rhamondre Stevenson

Targeting a Return in Week 12?
Isiah Pacheco

Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars "Optimistic" About Brian Thomas Jr.'s Week 12 Status
Josh Jacobs

Will Not Practice on Wednesday
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Jayden Daniels

Commanders Considering Shutting Down Jayden Daniels?
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out Again in Week 12
Drake London

Falcons Hoping That Drake London Will Return in Week 13
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Penix Jr.

Needs Reconstructive Surgery on Torn ACL
Jaxson Dart

Expected to Return to Practice on Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start Against Raiders
Dalton Kincaid

Ruled Out Against Texans
Connor Bedard

Continues Tear With Hat Trick
Macklin Celebrini

Pots Hat Trick in Tuesday's Win
Jake Guentzel

Records Eighth Career Hat Trick
Sammy Blais

Injured Versus Blues
Alexander Romanov

Injured in Tuesday's Win
Ryan Hartman

Considered Week-to-Week
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
Matt Murray

to Miss Six Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights

RANKINGS

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RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
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1B
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3B
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OF
SP
RP