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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 3

After two weeks, we're starting to get a sense of which players had a couple of good games early on and who is legitimately off to a hot start in 2017. I'm all in on the Reds at the moment, but since I've already advocated for Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza plenty, I'll look for some other names here.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include at least one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 3

Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) 23% owned

The Reds had been trying to trade Phillips for years and fantasy owners had gotten into the habit of ignoring him outright since 2014 when he had a disappointing showing. All he did was hit .294 and .291 the last two seasons with double-digit totals in homers and steals, along with 60+ runs and RBI. At age 35, his best years are well behind him, but Phillips still retains a fairly high floor. We don't know what Atlanta's new stadium will be like for hitters just yet, but it's unlikely to be as hitter-friendly as the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. That shouldn't stop Phillips from posting strong OBP numbers and contributing across multiple categories as usual. He's already got an 0.67 BB/K, which would be the best of his career by far. He hasn't gone deep yet, but seeing him near the top of the stolen base leaders with three in just two weeks is a very good sign. Phillips is a great MI option in 12+ team leagues and should be added in all such leagues.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 89% owned

When you see Marcell Ozuna's name at the top of the leaderboard for RBI with 16, you may think this is a great time to sell high. Not so fast, my friend. Ozuna was an All-Star last season based on the strength of his outstanding first half in which he hit .307 with 17 HR, 47 RBI, and 52 R. He wasn't nearly the same in the second half, hitting almost 100 points lower with just six homers the rest of the way. Despite logging 607 at-bats and never seeing the DL, he may have been bothered by a nagging wrist injury, according to reports. Ozuna's hot hand shouldn't be dismissed - if anything this may be the time to field offers from an Ozuna owner who thinks he's netting a profit by unloading him.

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) 96% owned

It's funny how quickly some people were ready to write off Cole after one rough start at Fenway Park. It was an ugly game to be sure, as he gave up five ER in five innings on Opening Day, striking out just two batters. After the first inning of his next start, the Twitter world seemed ready to outright Cole back to Indianapolis, when he allowed two runs, including a homer to Dansby Swanson. He settled down to earn a quality start, if not a victory. His third start went even better, as he held the defending champion Cubs (I'll never get used to saying that) to two runs, six hits and one walk over six IP. He's never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but he can get to 200 over the course of a full season and he's shown a characteristically low BB/9 (2.12) as usual. Put out some feelers for Cole because his stock won't get much lower than it is at the moment, considering he's the #1 arm on a fairly good team.

Cam Bedrosian (RP, LAA) - 74% owned

If not for Mike Scioscia's stubbornness, Bedrock would have been a top-15 closer candidate before the season even started. Skepticism over Bedrosian's role has kept his ownership just below three-fourths, but we have to take the long-term approach when evaluating this situation. Huston Street has no business pitching in the ninth inning these days. He is yet to recover from a Grade 1 lat strain and even when he returns he will have to prove that last year's horrible ratios (6.45 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 1.17 K/BB) were an aberration. Bedrosian, by contrast, has been flawless in his three appearances this season and has raised last year's 31.5% K% up to 41.7%. When all is said and done, Bedrosian should outperform many mid-tier closers that were drafted several rounds earlier.

 

Overrated Players - Week 3

Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, CHC) 87% owned

To be clear, I am a big fan of Baez as a player and a person, just not in fantasy. On any other team, Baez would have a chance to show off his power, along with the accompanying strikeouts, on a regular basis. In Chicago, he is simply a utility player that sees about two AB per game. The bottom line is that his upside is limited to his power potential and he won't possibly hit as many as 20 HR in his current role. He's a .243 hitter in the majors, he whiffs on nearly 30% of his at-bats and he's only stolen as many as 20 bases once in his career, which came in Single-A. To think that he was taken before Jake Lamb and a full 150 picks before Eugenio Suarez or Yangeris Solarte in NFBC drafts should make you realize that the big market bias affects us all, and not for the better.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) 83% owned

Last week, I compared Pederson unfavorably to Nomar Mazara in an effort to show how Mazara would provide better value in every category other than homers. Pederson went off in an Opening Day rout of the Padres, jacking his first homer early on and driving in five. Since then, he has one RBI in eight games and more strikeouts (eight) than hits (five). Pederson isn't quite Chris Carter, but he does remind one of Rob Deer far too often, providing barely more than double the RBI total per home run. His current .250 average is higher than he's hit during his Major League tenure, so there isn't much more to look forward to. If you can keep him as a third or fourth outfielder in a deep league and offset his low average with the rest of your squad, by all means keep him. If you'd rather get more bang for your buck across other categories, you might want to deal him to another owner who still thinks his best is yet to come.

Zack Greinke (SP, ARI) 97% owned

I've been selling Greinke since Spring Training and will continue to do so. Greinke's first couple starts had his owners breathing a sigh of relief and many proclaiming last year was just an outlier. Then, he slipped in his showdown against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, allowing five ER in five innings. It's true that Greinke's velocity is down at least half a mile per hour and he wasn't even clocked as high as 90 in the spring. His slider has seen an even bigger dip at four MPH less than 2015, before he came to the desert. Here's visual proof, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

That alone may not be enough to avoid him, but the fact that opposing hitters keep making higher contact rates and Chase Field seems to be the new Coors should be.

Joaquin Benoit (RP, PHI) 49% owned

Few people expected that the 36-year old Benoit would be one of the hottest adds in the early part of season. In one of my leagues, someone went so far as to spend $40 of FAAB to acquire him (a keeper league no less!). As it turns out, the Phillies decided to bequeath the closer role to Benoit rather than young flamethrower Hector Neris once Jeanmar Gomez imploded. The problem is that Benoit won't be good for more than two months of value, max. The club is likely trying to increase the reliever's value in order to get a better return once he is flipped before the trade deadline. Neris should then take over permanently. Even so, you should temper expectations with what Benoit can deliver. He has delivered better ratios in the later years of his career, but be warned that he walked 4.5 per nine innings last season and is on his fourth team in three season for a reason.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Marvin Mims Jr.

Now a Trade Candidate in Denver?
Moses Moody

Sidelined for Remainder of Season
Stephen Curry

Won't Return on Wednesday
Anthony Edwards

Limited to Individual Work
Francisco Lindor

Likely to be Ready for Opening Day
Killian Hayes

Ruled Out Tuesday Against Charlotte
Precious Achiuwa

Will Not Play Tuesday
Chicago Bulls

Coach Billy Donovan Stepping Away From the Bulls at the End of the Season?
Ryan Gerard

Can Continue Rolling at Texas Children's Houston Open
Pierceson Coody

Bounces Back at Valspar Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trying to Get Back on Track at Texas Children's Houston Open
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Harry Hall

Looking for Consistency at Texas Children's Houston Open
Brooks Koepka

Continues Building Momentum
Odell Beckham Jr.

Plans to Play in 2026
RJ Harvey

Ready for a Year 2 Jump?
Baker Mayfield

Buccaneers Expected to Discuss Extension With Baker Mayfield This Offseason
Brian Robinson Jr.

Falcons to Sign Brian Robinson Jr.
Joey Bosa

a Good Fit for the 49ers?
Lavonte David

Hanging Up his Cleats
Maxx Crosby

Dealing With Degenerative Knee Condition?
Roki Sasaki

to Stick in Rotation Despite Spring Struggles
Kevin McGonigle

Makes Tigers Opening Day Roster
Scottie Scheffler

Withdraws From Texas Children's Houston Open
James Reimer

Picks Up Victory Against Rangers
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Denzel Boston Visiting With 49ers on Tuesday
Matthew Stafford

a Great Option for Those in Win-Now Mode
Breece Hall

Dynasty Ceiling Capped in New York?
Jaylen Waddle

Restructures his Contract With Broncos
Ryan Pepiot

Placed on Injured List to Open the Season
Trevor Siemian

Signing With the Falcons
J.J. Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt Likely to Hit Leadoff on Opening Day
Connelly Early

to Make First Start on Sunday
Tucker Kraft

a Post-Injury Buy-Low Candidate
Jakobi Meyers

Vying for Top Spot in Jacksonville Receiver Room
Jayden Higgins

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Sam LaPorta

New Offensive Philosophy Could Help Sam LaPorta Get Back into Top Tier
Jaylon Tyson

Unavailable Against Magic
Noah Gray

Remains Buried on Kansas City Depth Chart
Jarrett Allen

Still Out Tuesday
Anthony Black

Remains Out Tuesday
Jalen Suggs

to Miss Second Consecutive Game
Kon Knueppel

Probable Tuesday
Nique Clifford

Kings Plan to Re-Evaluate Nique Clifford in One Week
Moses Moody

Stretchered Off With Knee Injury
Luke Clanton

Might Have a Problem in Houston
Sam Stevens

Happy to See Houston This Week
Keith Mitchell

Tries to Rebound After The Players Championship
Will Zalatoris

Returning This Week at Houston
Wyndham Clark

Trending in the Wrong Direction Heading to Houston
Shane Lowry

Seeking Better Luck in Houston This Weekend
Kurt Kitayama

Poised to Bounce Back at the Houston Open
Jake Knapp

More Suited for a Course Like the Houston Open
Tony Finau

Continues Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Scottie Scheffler

Returns to Action for Texas Children's Houston Open
Sam Burns

Looks to Carry Momentum Into Houston
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Finalizing Long-Term Extension
Shane Pinto

Opens Scoring Versus Rangers
Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks Waive Cam Thomas
Kyle Kuzma

Won't Play Against Clippers
John Collins

Misses Monday's Action
Kawhi Leonard

Available Monday Night
Caleb Martin

Brandon Williams Remain Out Monday
Brandon Ingram

a Late Scratch Versus Jazz
Sahith Theegala

to Rebound at Texas Children's Houston Open
De'Anthony Melton

Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton Available Monday
Kristaps Porzingis

Ready to Rock Monday
Stephan Jaeger

Hopes to Jumpstart Season at Texas Children's Houston Open
Adam Scott

Hopes to Get Back on Track in Houston
Blake Snell

Targeting a May Return
Hunter Greene

Reds Place Hunter Greene on 60-Day Injured List
Blake Whiteheart

Returns to the Browns
J.J. Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt Makes Cardinals Opening Day Roster
NFL

Ty Simpson Expected to be a First-Round Pick
Jake Bobo

Seahawks Match Offer Sheet for Jake Bobo
Nick Pivetta

to Start on Opening Day for Padres
Brandon Woodruff

Makes Brewers Opening Day Rotation
Zack Wheeler

to Start Rehab Assignment on Saturday
Carson Benge

Makes Mets Opening Day Roster
Seiya Suzuki

to Start the Season on the Injured List
Lerone Murphy

Suffers His First Loss
Dennis Santana

Won't be Pirates' Primary Closer
Movsar Evloev

Edges Out Lerone Murphy
CFB

Notre Dame Ranks No. 1 in Returning Production for 2026
Michael Aswell

Jr. Drops Decision At UFC London
Michael Aswell

Luke Riley Outclasses Michael Aswell Jr.
Sam Patterson

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Michael Page

Wins Lackluster Decision
Austen Lane

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Spencer Strider

to Start the Season on Injured List
Iwo Baraniewski

Delivers 28-Second TKO
Lawson Crouse

Picks Up Three Points in Overtime Win
Filip Forsberg

Takes Predators Past Blackhawks
Alex Ovechkin

Scores 1,000th Career Goal
Nate Schmidt

Exits Early Due to Illness
Matt Grzelcyk

to Miss Four-Game Road Trip
Mikko Rantanen

to Return to Full Practice
A.J. Greer

Handed a Three-Game Suspension
Troy Terry

Wins it for Anahiem
Tyler Reddick

Overcomes Adversity for Fourth Victory of the Season At Darlington
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Darlington Victory Despite Domination
Ryan Blaney

Recovers From Pit-Road Struggles to Score Career-Best Darlington Finish
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Finish Fourth at Darlington
Kyle Larson

Decent Performance Ends with Technical Issues At Darlington
Ilya Sorokin

Earns Shutout Over Columbus
Ethen Frank

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Sunday
Grayson Rodriguez

to Open Season on Injured List
Brett Pesce

Questionable to Return This Season
Stefan Noesen

Done for the Season
Yan Kuznetsov

Misses Fourth Consecutive Game Sunday
Connor Zary

Out Sunday
Mike Trout

Returns on Sunday
Anthony Duclair

Misses Sunday's Game
Ryan Pulock

Unavailable Sunday
Nick Lodolo

Exits Early With a Blister
Jeremy Peña

Astros Not Ruling Out Jeremy Pena for Opening Day
Tyler Reddick

the Clear Favorite at Darlington
Kyle Larson

a High-Risk, High-Reward Driver at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Is Getting Better at Darlington
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not Slowing Down at Darlington
Chris Buescher

Should be a Top-10 Contender at Darlington
Austin Cindric

a Sleeper at Darlington
Erik Jones

Quickest in Practice at Darlington
Morgan Geekie

Records Three Assists Against Red Wings
Steven Stamkos

Notches Three Points in Win Over Golden Knights
Cole Caufield

Records Career-High Five Points in Saturday's Win
Denny Hamlin

Qualifies Ninth for this Week's Cup Race at Darlington
Chase Briscoe

Is One of the Top DFS Options of the Week for Darlington
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Darlington Lineups?
Christopher Bell

Could Christopher Bell be Considered A Decent DFS Option for Darlington?
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott Worth Rostering At Darlington This Week For DFS?
Joey Logano

May Not Have the Speed to Warrant A Darlington DFS Lineup Spot
Ross Chastain

Should DFS Players Trust Ross Chastain at Darlington?
Kyle Busch

Could Kyle Busch Be A Worthy DFS Option for Darlington?
Brad Keselowski

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Lerone Murphy

Set For UFC London Main Event
Movsar Evloev

Looks To Remain Unbeaten
Michael Aswell

Jr. An Underdog At UFC London
Luke Riley

Set For UFC London Co-Main Event
Sam Patterson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Michael Page

Set For Welterweight Bout
Austen Lane

In Dire Need Of Victory
Iwo Baraniewski

A Favorite At UFC London
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