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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 3

After two weeks, we're starting to get a sense of which players had a couple of good games early on and who is legitimately off to a hot start in 2017. I'm all in on the Reds at the moment, but since I've already advocated for Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza plenty, I'll look for some other names here.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include at least one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 3

Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) 23% owned

The Reds had been trying to trade Phillips for years and fantasy owners had gotten into the habit of ignoring him outright since 2014 when he had a disappointing showing. All he did was hit .294 and .291 the last two seasons with double-digit totals in homers and steals, along with 60+ runs and RBI. At age 35, his best years are well behind him, but Phillips still retains a fairly high floor. We don't know what Atlanta's new stadium will be like for hitters just yet, but it's unlikely to be as hitter-friendly as the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. That shouldn't stop Phillips from posting strong OBP numbers and contributing across multiple categories as usual. He's already got an 0.67 BB/K, which would be the best of his career by far. He hasn't gone deep yet, but seeing him near the top of the stolen base leaders with three in just two weeks is a very good sign. Phillips is a great MI option in 12+ team leagues and should be added in all such leagues.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 89% owned

When you see Marcell Ozuna's name at the top of the leaderboard for RBI with 16, you may think this is a great time to sell high. Not so fast, my friend. Ozuna was an All-Star last season based on the strength of his outstanding first half in which he hit .307 with 17 HR, 47 RBI, and 52 R. He wasn't nearly the same in the second half, hitting almost 100 points lower with just six homers the rest of the way. Despite logging 607 at-bats and never seeing the DL, he may have been bothered by a nagging wrist injury, according to reports. Ozuna's hot hand shouldn't be dismissed - if anything this may be the time to field offers from an Ozuna owner who thinks he's netting a profit by unloading him.

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) 96% owned

It's funny how quickly some people were ready to write off Cole after one rough start at Fenway Park. It was an ugly game to be sure, as he gave up five ER in five innings on Opening Day, striking out just two batters. After the first inning of his next start, the Twitter world seemed ready to outright Cole back to Indianapolis, when he allowed two runs, including a homer to Dansby Swanson. He settled down to earn a quality start, if not a victory. His third start went even better, as he held the defending champion Cubs (I'll never get used to saying that) to two runs, six hits and one walk over six IP. He's never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but he can get to 200 over the course of a full season and he's shown a characteristically low BB/9 (2.12) as usual. Put out some feelers for Cole because his stock won't get much lower than it is at the moment, considering he's the #1 arm on a fairly good team.

Cam Bedrosian (RP, LAA) - 74% owned

If not for Mike Scioscia's stubbornness, Bedrock would have been a top-15 closer candidate before the season even started. Skepticism over Bedrosian's role has kept his ownership just below three-fourths, but we have to take the long-term approach when evaluating this situation. Huston Street has no business pitching in the ninth inning these days. He is yet to recover from a Grade 1 lat strain and even when he returns he will have to prove that last year's horrible ratios (6.45 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 1.17 K/BB) were an aberration. Bedrosian, by contrast, has been flawless in his three appearances this season and has raised last year's 31.5% K% up to 41.7%. When all is said and done, Bedrosian should outperform many mid-tier closers that were drafted several rounds earlier.

 

Overrated Players - Week 3

Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, CHC) 87% owned

To be clear, I am a big fan of Baez as a player and a person, just not in fantasy. On any other team, Baez would have a chance to show off his power, along with the accompanying strikeouts, on a regular basis. In Chicago, he is simply a utility player that sees about two AB per game. The bottom line is that his upside is limited to his power potential and he won't possibly hit as many as 20 HR in his current role. He's a .243 hitter in the majors, he whiffs on nearly 30% of his at-bats and he's only stolen as many as 20 bases once in his career, which came in Single-A. To think that he was taken before Jake Lamb and a full 150 picks before Eugenio Suarez or Yangeris Solarte in NFBC drafts should make you realize that the big market bias affects us all, and not for the better.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) 83% owned

Last week, I compared Pederson unfavorably to Nomar Mazara in an effort to show how Mazara would provide better value in every category other than homers. Pederson went off in an Opening Day rout of the Padres, jacking his first homer early on and driving in five. Since then, he has one RBI in eight games and more strikeouts (eight) than hits (five). Pederson isn't quite Chris Carter, but he does remind one of Rob Deer far too often, providing barely more than double the RBI total per home run. His current .250 average is higher than he's hit during his Major League tenure, so there isn't much more to look forward to. If you can keep him as a third or fourth outfielder in a deep league and offset his low average with the rest of your squad, by all means keep him. If you'd rather get more bang for your buck across other categories, you might want to deal him to another owner who still thinks his best is yet to come.

Zack Greinke (SP, ARI) 97% owned

I've been selling Greinke since Spring Training and will continue to do so. Greinke's first couple starts had his owners breathing a sigh of relief and many proclaiming last year was just an outlier. Then, he slipped in his showdown against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, allowing five ER in five innings. It's true that Greinke's velocity is down at least half a mile per hour and he wasn't even clocked as high as 90 in the spring. His slider has seen an even bigger dip at four MPH less than 2015, before he came to the desert. Here's visual proof, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

That alone may not be enough to avoid him, but the fact that opposing hitters keep making higher contact rates and Chase Field seems to be the new Coors should be.

Joaquin Benoit (RP, PHI) 49% owned

Few people expected that the 36-year old Benoit would be one of the hottest adds in the early part of season. In one of my leagues, someone went so far as to spend $40 of FAAB to acquire him (a keeper league no less!). As it turns out, the Phillies decided to bequeath the closer role to Benoit rather than young flamethrower Hector Neris once Jeanmar Gomez imploded. The problem is that Benoit won't be good for more than two months of value, max. The club is likely trying to increase the reliever's value in order to get a better return once he is flipped before the trade deadline. Neris should then take over permanently. Even so, you should temper expectations with what Benoit can deliver. He has delivered better ratios in the later years of his career, but be warned that he walked 4.5 per nine innings last season and is on his fourth team in three season for a reason.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kris Murray

Will Play Against the Clippers
Robert Williams III

Available on Friday Night
Austin Reaves

Facing Multiweek Absence With Calf Issue
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable Against Brooklyn
Keegan Murray

Out at Least One Week With Calf Strain
Jock Landale

to Miss Bucks Game With Calf Issue
Jordan Poole

Cleared to Play Friday vs. Suns
Joel Embiid

Set to Suit Up Against Bulls
George Kittle

Questionable to Face the Bears in Week 17
Cedric Coward

Active On Friday Against Milwaukee
Ja Morant

Available On Friday Night Against Milwaukee
Maxx Crosby

Done for the Season
VJ Edgecombe

Available on Friday
Dominick Barlow

Will Suit Up Against Chicago
Collin Murray-Boyles

Good to Go Versus Washington
Scottie Barnes

Upgraded to Available Against Washington
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Cleared to Play on Friday
Jordan Goodwin

Available For Friday Night Against New Orleans
Pelle Larsson

Back on Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.

Ruled Out For Friday Night Against Memphis
Bam Adebayo

Will Miss Friday's Game Versus Atlanta
Justin Champagnie

Downgraded To Questionable For Friday Night
Scottie Barnes

Now Downgraded To Questionable For Friday
Calvin Austin III

Ruled Out with Hamstring Injury for Week 17
Harold Fannin Jr.

Expected to Play on Sunday
Jordan Love

Ruled Out with Concussion for Saturday's Contest
George Kittle

"Likely a Game-Time Decision" on Sunday Night
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice on Friday
Josh Allen

Trending Toward Playing Vs. Philly
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
George Kittle

Remains Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Malik Willis

Carrying Questionable Tag for Week 17 Tilt
Jordan Love

Questionable for Saturday's Contest
Lamar Jackson

Listed as Doubtful for Week 17
Amon-Ra St. Brown

to Suit Up on Christmas Day
Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox

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