X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buy Low and Sell High Starting Pitchers for Week 9

Joe Gallina breaks down the pitchers to target for a buy low or a sell high trade in week 9. These fantasy baseball pitchers can return great trade value.

So you want to buy a pitcher but you don’t want to pay a lot for him? Join the club, so does everyone else. What is your advantage? You were smart enough to click the link that brought you to this article and you’ve got me on your side. I’ve found four new buy low starting pitching candidates. Some of the players listed below can still even be classified as sleepers because of the team they play on or their name brand. On the other hand, if you’re loaded with starting pitching and need help in other areas, I’ve got two guys who are pitching over their heads that you need to move now while their value is at its highest. Check out my latest picks for starting pitchers who can be bought low and sold high.

 

Starting Pitchers To Buy Low

Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs

477579907BK001

Sometimes when you pitch for a terrible team, no matter how good a pitcher you are, you can often get overlooked by Fantasy Baseball Owners. Such is the case with Jason Hammel, a 31 year old pitcher who has won five games, pitched to a 3.08 ERA and a .903 WHIP for the miserable Chicago Cubbies. How has he done it? For starters, he took his 7.1 swinging strike rate from last season and raised it to a gaudy 10.5% rate (anything over 8.5 is considered very good for a starting pitcher). He has also taken last season’s 22% line drive rate and sliced it down to a brilliant 17.3%. With the major league average being 20% and 70% of line drives usually landing for hits, this has helped his overall performance.

He has also lowered his HR/9 rate to .77, one of the lowest levels of his career. With a career ERA of 4.70 many are waiting for Hammel to implode, and he is bound to regress a bit at one point, but in his defense he started out his career pitching for a bad Tampa Bay team and then pitched in Colorado and Baltimore, two teams that play in hitter’s parks. At Wrigley Field he still pitches in a hitter’s park but maybe the adjustments he’s made have helped contribute to his success, and maybe the move to the NL from the AL has helped him,  and maybe you can land him in a trade without having to give up anything too significant.

 

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers

Sometimes it seems that being featured in this column as a buy low candidate is a lot like the mythical jinx associated with being on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Rick Porcello was cruising along with a 7-1 won/loss record, 2.90 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and I start writing an article which includes him as a buy low candidate and then bang – he gets lit up for 8 runs on 5/24 and his ERA jumps to 3.88 and now he is probably mad at me. The good news is that after his last start he is an even better buy low prospect. With the Detroit Tigers firmly ensconced as the leader in the AL Central I’d be willing to bet that you want to own a piece of their starting rotation. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, their two standouts will not come cheap.

A smart owner will go for the next best thing: Rick Porcello. Even after Porcello’s last miserable start, his numbers are actually considerably better than Verlander’s and even Scherzer doesn’t have more wins than he does. Over the course of his career, Porcello has slowly become a better pitcher.  His ERA has declined in each of his four major league seasons and at this rate he may post his first season with an ERA of under four. He is using his slider more often this season, making opposing batters swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, and he is doing a better job of getting ahead in counts with his 61.6% first strike rate. If you take into account that he has also lowered his walk rate and the defense of the infield that plays behind him has improved, picking up Porcello is a move that can help your fantasy team in the win, ERA and WHIP categories. Porcello has been dealing with a recent oblique issue which coupled with his last lousy start might just put enough fear into his Fantasy Baseball Owners so that you can work out a deal that is in your favor. Monitor his next start closely before agreeing to a deal.

 

Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers

If I told you that Kyle Lohse was 6-1 with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.05, would you be surprised? In researching this article I was surprised at just how good his numbers were. As one of the unsung heroes of the Milwaukee Brewer’s early season success, Lohse is one of those under the radar type pitchers who is a classic buy low candidate. By throwing over 66% of his first pitches for strikes he has been able to get ahead of hitters and utilize pitches that tend to fool hitters.

He is using his sinker, slider and curve more frequently this season which has helped his K/9 rate to increase from 5.66 to 7.22 in the past year. I’d like to see him throw more ground balls but even though his GB rate is just under 40% (50% or more is considered very good) his HR/9 rate has dipped to .94 this season which is a good sign. With Yovani Gallardo (he was a sell high candidate in one of my previous articles) and Matt Garza slumping, Lohse may just be the pitcher who will help to keep the Brewers in the playoff hunt. Maybe he can do the same for your team.

 

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros

When you play for the worst team in baseball you tend to get overlooked in the world of fantasy baseball. Luckily for Fantasy Baseball Owners who need to swing a deal for a starting pitcher, Dallas Keuchel pitches for the lowly Houston Astros. With six wins, that is 30% of the Astros total wins this season, a 2.55 ERA and a .976 WHIP Keuchel has seemingly come out of nowhere to become one of fantasy baseball’s most effective pitchers. What’s the difference from the pitcher who posted a 6-10 won/loss record and 5.15 ERA last season? Better control and better stuff.

His swinging strike rate increased by almost three points from last season and is currently at an incredible 11.5. That helped Keuchel’s K/9 rate increase to 7.77, up from 7.20 last season. He also drastically reduced his walk rate from 3.05 to 1.53. The rest of his stats are equally impressive. Opposing batters are hitting his pitches for line drives at a rate of just 14.1%, well below the 20% league average. He is throwing ground balls at a rate of 66.5%. Remember, groundballs have a tendency to turn into outs at a very high rate, and they always stay in the park, and anything over 50% is considered very good. All signs point to Keuchel continuing his mastery of opposing hitters. Look beyond the major league team he plays for and buy him low, now.

 

Starting Pitchers To Sell High

Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Josh Beckett") [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

On the heels of his 128 pitch no hit effort I advise you to put Josh Beckett on the trading block as soon as possible. His value will never be higher. There is no place for Beckett to go but down and with the recent rash of injuries to starting pitchers you might just find a fellow Fantasy Baseball Owner desperate enough to overpay for him. Beckett has some impressive numbers, like his 52/20 K/BB ratio and 2.43 ERA, which you could use as bait in your trade negotiations.

Other than a lower line drive percentage and higher ground ball percentage, Beckett’s stats are just about the same as when he was posting ERA’s of over 4.50 during the past two seasons. Beckett went into his last start with the lowest first pitch strike percentage of his career, batters are swinging at less of his pitches that are out of the strike zone and I don’t think he has the stamina to remain healthy for the long haul. Trade him now and let his latest high pitch effort and inevitable visit to the DL be somebody else’s problem.

 

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Something is definitely wrong with Justin Verlander. When he has three straight starts where he gives up at least five earned runs and strikes out just 7 batters in 17.1 innings it is time to take advantage of whatever respect the Verlander name still commands in fantasy circles and trade him. Maybe there are lingering effects from his January core muscle surgery or maybe there is something else brewing that has not yet been made public, but let’s face it, Verlander is not the dominant pitcher that he once was.

He’s lost a couple of ticks off of his once electric 95 plus fastball, his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He owns a very mediocre 4.03 ERA, but his SIERA which is designed to determine a pitcher’s underlying skill, sits at 4.67, which is pretty bad for a guy who has a lifetime 3.43 ERA. My advice to you is try to hold out until Verlander has his next good start and then put him on the block. Don’t sell him cheaply, but get rid of him while the name Justin Verlander still means something to your fellow Fantasy Baseball Owners.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF