Exit Velocity Standouts (EV50) - Power Hitters On The Rise for Fantasy Baseball

Corbin identifies potential breakout power hitters as fantasy baseball risers looking at exit velocity (EV50) data. His analyzes James Wood, Junior Caminero, more.

Like any data filter, there's a mix of notable and noisy ones. That's especially true when we use intentional or arbitrary cutoffs. All stats require context, so we include other metrics with a newer Statcast metric called EV50.

Baseball Savant defines EV50 as the average of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted balls, giving us a somewhat reliable metric to average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives. EV50 correlates well with barrels (0.524) and barrels per plate appearance (0.641). That's unsurprising since barrels involve batted balls with an exit velocity of 98 mph at an optimal launch angle (26-30 degrees).

The players in this article meet the stat thresholds of an EV50 of 103 mph and an average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 96 mph among hitters with 100 batted ball events. There were 23 out of 405 qualified hitters (5.7 percent) who met those thresholds in 2024. We'll examine a few of those players. To most fantasy managers, these players won't be sleepers since it's a sharper market each season. However, we could see home runs and power explosions for them in 2025.

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James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

EV50: 104.7 mph

EV on FB/LD: 96.9 mph

Wood was one of my bold-prediction picks for a massive season in 2025. The ADP market seems to agree, with an ADP around pick 50. Wood ranked eighth in EV50 and 15th in EV on FB/LD. The main issue of Wood involves the groundballs, evidenced by the third-lowest launch angle (2.4 degrees) among the 405 qualified hitters with 100 batted ball events.

For context, launch angles below 10 degrees typically mean they hit groundballs at a high rate. When hitters have high groundball rates (55 percent), we want them to crush flyballs and line drives. Thankfully, that's the case with Wood, who is boasting a higher home run rate (20 percent) in 2024.

With the heavy groundballs, 20-25 home runs should be the floor outcome, with 30+ being the ceiling outcome unless the launch angle changes.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

EV50: 103 mph

EV on FB/LD: 97.8 mph

In one of my initial offseason articles, I wrote about Caminero as an early draft value hitter to target. We referenced the STEAMER projections since they were among the first ones to show Caminero as a value. Caminero popped up in the EV50 metric in the article, showing his legitimate power in 2024.

Caminero ranked 34th in EV50, tied with Christian Yelich and Elly De La Cruz, but he bested them in EV on FB/LD (97.8 mph). Like Wood, groundballs have been an issue for Caminero, with a 48 percent groundball rate, limiting the power ceiling.

There have been talks about the Rays' home park playing more hitter-friendly while they're displaced from Tropicana Field. The Rays will play at the Yankees' spring training field, which should have juicy hitter-friendly park factors to Yankee Stadium. For context, the Yankees' home park ranks second in the rolling three-year home run park factor for right-handed hitters behind the Dodgers.

Since the article was published on February 1, Caminero's ADP rose about 15 picks in the most recent NFBC drafts to pick 85. The market has bought into Caminero's power skills and the upgraded park in 2025.

Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants

EV50: 104.4 mph

EV on FB/LD: 96.8 mph

Chapman has been synonymous with some of the near-elite power hitters, mainly from a skill and exit velocity standpoint. Besides Chapman's 2019 season, with 36 home runs, he hasn't topped 30, though he hit 27 in three of the past four seasons.

Chapman ranked 13th in EV50, tying with Fernando Tatis Jr. He puts the ball in the air (45 percent FB%), typically leading to optimal launch angles, with 53 barrels (No. 21) and 8.2 percent barrel per plate appearance rate (No. 47) among hitters with 100 batted ball events.

Interestingly, Chapman's career HR/F average sits at 15 percent, which would be around a 50th percentile outcome. If Chapman's HR/F rises to 17-20 percent while maintaining the power skills, we could see 30+ homers in 2025.

Part of that involves the home park being pitch-friendly for right-handed hitters. That's evident in the home park for the Giants ranking 28th and the Athletics at 26th in Home Run Park Factors to right-handed hitters. Power can be hard to find later in drafts, so prioritize Chapman. That's especially true because the third base position becomes murky in the middle rounds.

Additional Cutoffs: 100 mph EV50, 96 mph EV on FB/LD

Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants

EV50: 102.6 mph

EV on FB/LD: 96.1 mph

Ramos had a breakout season with 22 home runs in 2024. He boasted above-average power skills, evidenced by a 126 Expected Power Index (xPX), aligning with the output (129 PX). Ramos dealt with a strained oblique in 2023, which might be something to monitor with his oblique issues in Spring Training.

Oblique injuries typically cause hitters to miss over one month, nearly half a month past their projected return date. While a player might not have a reported injury in Spring Training, it doesn't mean they're fully healed from an in-season one.

In a sport with violent and rotational swings, obliques will be important in maintaining the health of power hitters like Ramos. The other concern would be the mediocre contact rate (71 percent), but the power skills look legitimate. Ramos boasts an above-average EV50, EV on FB/LD, and barrel per PA, giving us confidence in sustainability.

Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics

EV50: 102.5 mph

EV on FB/LD: 97.4 mph

Soderstrom has been rising draft boards because of the near-elite to elite power metrics. He rocked above-average EV50 and EV on FB/LD, a few mph above the league averages. The main issues with Soderstrom involve the groundballs (48 percent) and contact rate (71 percent).

Soderstrom ranks 15th in xPX among hitters with 150 plate appearances in 2024, tying him with Kerry Carpenter. He was a catcher prospect, but the Athletics have Shea Langeliers, another high-end power hitter.

As a left-handed hitter, Soderstrom showed relatively even splits against lefties (125 wRC+) and righties (113 wRC+), so we may not need to worry about being a platoon option. That's notable because it's rare to find power-hitting left-handed hitters without being a likely platoon option around pick 250-275.

Target Soderstrom as a later-round corner infielder, especially for power later in the drafts. The power is legitimate with a logical playing time path, mostly at first base, with possible catcher eligibility.

Gabriel Arias, 3B, Cleveland Guardians

EV50: 101.3 mph

EV on FB/LD: 96.4 mph

Just for fun, let's talk about Arias, who came up in conversation in January. We highlighted hitters who met EV50 and EV on FB/LD thresholds, and Rob DiPietro commented about Arias.

Arias fits the profile of above-average exit velocities, yet the 18th-lowest launch angle, meaning he hits tons of groundballs (51 percent). Though Arias crushes line drives and flyballs, he would have one of the worst contact rates, similar to Giancarlo Stanton, Bo Naylor, and Josh Lowe.

Playing time seems like an issue for Arias, with the team adding Carlos Santana while mixing in younger talent, including Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and Brayan Rocchio. The market values Arias past pick 700 in Draft Champions leagues, but Roster Resource projects him as their regular second baseman.

Keep tabs on his potential playing time, especially with the exit velocity metrics hinting at more homers. However, Arias had a brutal 30 wRC+ against lefties and a 100 wRC+ versus righties throughout his career as a right-handed hitter. It's fun to chase power, but don't think too much about Arias besides those deep draft-and-hold formats.

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