Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 14

December 8, 2019

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 14. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for Week 14! While we have a full slate of games on tap this week, there isn't a lot of "slam dunk plays" that jump out at us at first glance. This is a week where we have to trust our process and research to uncover some hidden gems. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's dig in and find some huge scores again week!

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 14.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 14 Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ BUF ($7,400)

As I'm sure I'll mention many times throughout this week's article...this is a tough slate, with not a lot of standout spots. This lack of things to love makes me more willing to pay up at some positions, which leads me to Lamar Jackson, a player that's been the closest thing to a "sure thing" as we've had in the NFL this year. The matchup on the road against Buffalo certainly isn't great, but Jackson is coming off a 26.3-point DraftKings outing against a Niners defense that's perhaps the best in the league, which makes us feel very confident in his floor and we know the upside is there. I'm aware that highlighting Lamar is kind've a cop out, but on a slate of this nature, there's a lot to be said for grabbing as much floor as you can.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - MIA @ NYJ ($6,000)

If we're going conservative with Lamar Jackson, we're definitely embracing some volatility with Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has settled in as the every-week QB for this team and they seem to have somewhat adapted his scrappy attitude, as they have continued to fight down the stretch. We know Fitzpatrick is mistake prone, but that's often a result of his sheer aggressiveness, which is actually a trait that can help us post big DFS scores and take down tournaments. He ranks sixth in the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards at nine yards. Fitz has went for 30.8 and 25.1 DK points over his last two and draws a matchup against a Jets Defense that funnels opponents to the air, as New York ranks second in run defense DVOA, but just 21st in pass defense DVOA.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 14 Picks

Melvin Gordon - LAC @ JAX ($6,400)

In the "things I didn't think I'd be saying when the year started" category, the Jaguars have slowly morphed into a defense that we feel good about actually targeting, specifically with RBs. Jacksonville has relinquished a massive 5.29 yards per carry to the RB position, a mark that's 31st in the NFL. This sets up well for LA's "forgotten man" Melvin Gordon. After holding out for training camp and the first four weeks of the season, Gordon has slowly worked himself into game shape. The Chargers haven't been shy about getting him the ball and he's had 20-plus touches in three of LA's last four. Gordon's matchup and expected usage make him a great tournament option at his reasonable $6.4k price tag.

James White - KC @ NE ($5,500)

I normally ignore Patriot players like the plague in this article, as their usage is so unpredictable that it's tough to project a true "slate breaking" score from them...so this James White recommendation is coming with the realization that he's a pure "boom or bust" option on a tough slate. The Chiefs have been terrorized by running backs this season both on the ground and through the air. KC has allowed the second-most receiving yards and yards per target average to opposing RBs, which sets up extremely well for the sure-handed White. You could also make an argument for his backfield mate Sony Michel, but this feels like a "White game" with it's tight spread and slate-high O/U of 49. On a slate in which we're starved for value, White's price tag brings some much-needed salary relief and even if he "misses" his huge role in the passing game provides a nice floor.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 14 Picks

D.J. Moore - CAR @ ATL ($7,000)

With an offensive force of nature like Christian McCaffrey on this Panthers team, it is sometimes easy to overlook DJ Moore. Moore has evolved from one of our favorite value targets into a legitimate number-one WR. Despite his steadily increasing DK price tag, Moore hasn't done anything that warrants us to bail on him. He's received nine or more targets in six straight games and has went over the 100-yard receiving mark in three of his last five, in large part thanks to his increased downfield usage. This week he gets a nice matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that is 27th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. We've seen Carolina's defense struggle mightily in recent weeks and I like the chances of this game turning into a legitimate shootout.

Devante Parker - MIA @ NYJ ($6,900)

We've always known the talent was there for Dolphins WR DeVante Parker...he's finally having a breakout season after years of fighting both injuries and Miami's former coach Adam Gase. Parker is fresh off a monstrous 7/159/2 outing against Philly last week. He's been targeted a RIDICULOUSLY-MASSIVE 41 times over the Dolphins last four games, and we can once again expect double-digits targets for Parker against a Jets secondary that's ranked 24th in the NFL in DK points allowed to opposing WRs. His DK price has been bumped significantly, which should help to depress his ownership this week.

Mike Williams - LAC @ JAX ($4,500)

If you're a believer in positive TD regression, let me introduce you to Mr. Mike Williams, a receiver that's been targeted 69 times this year, but has failed to reach paydirt a single time. Williams leads the NFL in aDOT at a massive 16.8 yards and is also first in the league at 20.5 yards per reception. Jacksonville's secondary is more effective than their run defense and AJ Bouye is no slouch, but at just $4.5k Williams carries legitimate tournament-winning upside with his consistent (and huge) downfield usage.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 14 Picks

Jack Doyle - IND @ TB ($4,600)

We jumped on Jack Doyle last week, and despite the sizeable salary increase, I'm willing to go back to the well in this spot. In the absence of TY Hilton and Eric Ebron, Doyle was peppered with 11 targets last week against Tennessee, going for 6/73/1. The matchup is even better in Week 14, as Indy squares off against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Outside of the legendary Arizona Cardinals, the Bucs have been the worst team in the NFL at defending the TE position and rank bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, and TDs allowed to the position. With Ebron done for the year and Hilton once again questionable, Doyle should continue to eat against Tampa's funnel defense.

Ian Thomas - CAR @ ATL ($2,500)

This one obviously depends on Greg Olsen's status, but Carolina's veteran TE looks extremely doubtful as of this writing. If Olsen misses, be prepared to fire up Ian Thomas at just $2.5k at the TE position, which is curiously absent of great values this week. Thomas hasn't seen many passes come his way this season thanks to a healthy Olsen, but he did fill in admirably in the veterans absence last year, and snagged four of four targets for 24 yards after Olsen exited last week's game early with a concussion.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 14 Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense - PIT @ ARI ($3,500)

It's pretty hard to ignore what the Pittsburgh Steelers have been doing on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers have played the huge majority of the season short-handed on offense, but the defense has only allowed more than 21 real points once in their last seven games. Pittsburgh has totaled 43 sacks on the season (the third-most in the league) and leads the NFL with 30 takeaways. This Cards offense has shown some flashes, but it's not a matchup that I'm concerned about with a Steelers unit that ranks inside the top five in both run and pass defense DVOA.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense - CIN @ CLE ($2,100)

Listen, the Bengals are horrible, but I just flat-out don't fear the Browns at this point. We're starved for salary savings this week and dropping all the way down to Cincy at $2.1k is a nice way to give yourself some flexibility when constructing rosters. The Bengals have held opponents to 17 or fewer real points in three-straight weeks and catch a Cleveland offense that has never found its rhythm this year. Throw in the fact that Baker Mayfield's throwing hand may be banged up and the Bengals are a risk I'm willing to take in GPPs.

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