Bounce Back Quarterback Candidates For 2023 Fantasy Football - Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, more

July 21, 2023

Rob identifies four quarterbacks who could bounce back in 2023 fantasy football after putting up disappointing fantasy performances last year.

An NFL player’s performance throughout the course of their career is never linear. How easy would this game be if it was? If they all continued to perform better from their rookie season until they reached a plateau and then began to decline, our fake little game would become increasingly less enjoyable. Why? Because it would become predictable and where’s the fun in that?

The reality is players (like us, our businesses, and anything really) have good and bad weeks. Sometimes those weeks stretch to years. Some are predictable. Some aren’t. Sometimes a bad year can mean the beginning of the end for a player and other times, it was just a bad year. As fantasy managers, we’re trying to predict which one.

In this article, we’ll be identifying several players from each position who simply had a bad season in 2022 and are primed for a bounce-back year. Identifying players who are likely to bounce back after a bad season can give you an edge in your fantasy drafts because oftentimes, their prices have decreased. Don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Everybody wants to talk about how poorly Dak Prescott played, but this is almost entirely tied to his interceptions. We should be able to keep this fairly simple. Yes, Prescott threw a lot of interceptions last year. Also yes, it was extremely out of character for him and his interception rate in 2022. It looks more like an outlier than a sign of things to come.

From 2018-2021, Prescott’s interception rate stayed between 1.5% and 1.8%. That's incredible consistency over 53 games. In 2018, his interception rate was the fifth-lowest in the NFL. It was the 13th-lowest in 2019, 14th-lowest in 2020, and eighth-lowest in 2021. In fact, from 2018-2021, Prescott had the sixth-lowest interception rate in the NFL. Pretty, pretty good.

This brings us to what happened in 2022. Are you going to believe the Prescott we saw for 12 games in 2022 after suffering a high-ankle sprain is the new Prescott or do you believe he’s the guy we’ve seen play from 2018-2022? It’s a sample size of 12 vs. 53. That’s for every fantasy manager to decide, but I know which one I’m choosing.

It’s amazing what recency bias can do. We forget that in 2021, Prescott had 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. We forget that in five games in 2020 (prior to his devastating ankle injury), he was averaging an insane 371 yards per game, as well as 1.8 touchdowns and 0.80 interceptions. Over 17 games, he was pacing for 6,307 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. We forget that in 2020, he had 4,902 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

To further illustrate the point that Prescott didn’t play poorly last year -- outside of his interceptions -- I put together a table below. From 2018-2022, Prescott’s per-game averages amount to 575 passes per season. I used his completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate from each of these five seasons to determine what his final stat line would look like.

Looking at the table above, the number of completions is incredibly similar throughout all five seasons. His yardage is very similar in three out of five years, with 2020-2021 acting as our two outliers here. However, the 2020 averages are based on just five games. Looking at his touchdowns, three out of five seasons again are very similar with 2019-2020 acting as our outliers. But once again, 2020 is based off of just five games. When it comes to interceptions, the outlier is clear and obvious.

Fantasy managers may be concerned about former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore leaving. This is being overblown. Head coach Mike McCarthy has long been a very pass-happy coach. Yes, he said he wanted to run the ball, but looking at their offensive personnel doesn’t show a team equipped to do that.

Their running backs are Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, and Ronald Jones. Pollard and Jones have never had more than 195 carries in a season. Davis was a rookie last year and finished with fewer than 40 carries, while Jones had fewer than 20 last year. Simply put, this offense is not designed to run the ball. On the flip side, they have WRs CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup. McCarthy can talk all he wants about running the ball, but the team’s actions say something else entirely.

Prediction: Dak Prescott bounces back with over 4,200 yards, 30+ touchdowns, and 12 or fewer interceptions.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is an easy addition to this list. Last year, he averaged 17.9 PPG after having averaged 23.6 PPG in 2021 and 23.4 in 2020. A lot of things went wrong for Herbert last season. For starters, he dealt with his own injury, a rib cartilage fracture. Any injury to the midsection for a quarterback can be very painful.

On top of that, Keenan Allen missed seven games and played minimal snaps in two others. Mike Williams missed four games and was limited in two others. His starting left tackle, Rashawn Slater, missed 14 games. His starting center, Corey Linsley, missed three. Both offensive linemen were Pro Bowlers the previous season.

All four players will return this year. On top of that, the team also drafted first-round receiver Quentin Johnston. This offense is absolutely loaded. The team also made the decision to let go of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Dallas did the same thing with their offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, whom the Chargers hired immediately.

Looking at what Dallas has done over the past four years with Moore as their offensive coordinator, managers should have plenty of optimism regarding Herbert’s fantasy value. Dak Prescott played 16 games in a season twice during Moore's tenure. During those two seasons, Dallas finished 10th or higher in pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns.

If Moore did that with Prescott and with receivers such as Amari Cooper (2019 only), CeeDee Lamb (2021 only), and Michael Gallup (hurt most of 2021), imagine what he'll be able to accomplish with Herbert, Allen, Williams, and Johnston. The foursome he now has in Los Angeles is without a doubt more talented. This could result in an explosion of fantasy football goodness.

Dak Prescott’s aDOT by year w/ Kellen Moore

2019: 9.8
2020: 8.3
2021: 8.2
2022: 8.7

Justin Herbert’s aDOT by year w/ Joe Lombardi

2021: 7.9
2022: 6.9

Herbie ready for lift off 🚀🚀
pic.twitter.com/jEPBUChWt9

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 30, 2023

The Kellen Moore offense in Los Angeles is going to be much more aggressive than what we saw from the Chargers last season. When you combine a healthy Herbert with the downfield talents of Johnston and Williams, the QB could very well be on the verge of the best season of his career, which is saying something.

As a rookie, he threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns in 15 games. Had he started 17 games with his per-game averages, he would’ve finished with 4,915 yards and 35 touchdowns. In his second season, he had 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns. This past season, he threw for 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns.

We’ve already touched on all the injuries to his supporting cast and his own. Fantasy managers should be expecting his 3.6% touchdown rate from a year ago to progress to the mean. In his first two years, he was at 5.2% and 5.7%, respectively.

Prediction: Justin Herbert bounces back with over 5,000 yards and 40+ touchdowns.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson had a disastrous season last year. While many fantasy managers may want to write him off and assume he’s hit the proverbial cliff, they may want to hold off on that. Just about everything that could go wrong went wrong for Wilson in his first year with the Broncos. It can certainly be difficult to buy back in after such a poor season, but being able to accurately predict those resurgent seasons can give fantasy managers a real advantage against their competition.

For starters, the team ended up firing head coach Nathaniel Hackett after just one season on the job. Does Wilson have to shoulder some of that blame? Sure, absolutely. But folks have to acknowledge that for a coach to be fired after one year, he has to be very bad.

This isn’t something that happens with any sort of regularity. If firing a bad head coach after one season wasn’t enough, also recognize this was Wilson’s first year with a new coach in his NFL career. First time learning a new offense. First time in a new city. That’s a lot of change.

On top of all that -- as if that wasn’t enough -- Denver has dealt with a myriad of injuries. First, No. 3 receiver Tim Patrick sustained a torn ACL in the preseason and wouldn’t play a single down. Next was starting running back Javonte Williams, who went down in Week 4 and missed the remaining 13 games.

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both missed two games. Sutton played fewer than 50% of the snaps in another game and Jeudy played fewer than 50% of the snaps in three other contests. Starting tight end Greg Dulcich missed seven games.

The team’s starting left tackle, Garett Bolles, played just five games. Starting guards Dalton Risner and Quinn Meinerz missed two and four games, respectively. Starting right tackle Billy Turner and starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III missed nine games. Backup tackle Cameron Fleming also missed two games.

Wilson also played through a partially torn hamstring, which did force him to miss one game. Considering all of that, it seems reasonable to give Wilson a redo due to the number of injuries the team endured along with his track record of excellence. Since becoming the starting quarterback for the Seahawks, Wilson has rattled the following fantasy football performances:

• 2021 — QB13 (18.2 PPG)
• 2020 — QB5 (24.5)
• 2019 — QB7 (21.3)
• 2018 — QB13 (19.7)
• 2017 — QB2 (23.2)
• 2016 — QB19 (17.8)
• 2015 — QB3 (22.4)
• 2014 — QB5 (21.2)
• 2013 — QB11 (18.6)
• 2012 — QB11 (18.9)

Prior to 2022, he had been a top-12 quarterback in seven out of 10 seasons. He was top-five in four of 10 and his worst finish was QB19, the only year he finished outside of the top 13. If you feel like that’s going back too far, in the past five years (including 2022), he’s been in the top 10 twice and has been in the top 13 in four out of five seasons. The track record is incredibly impressive.

This offseason, the team signed Mike McGlinchey, a right tackle formerly of the 49ers. They also signed Ben Powers, former left guard of the Ravens. With the healthy return of Bolles, Cushenberry, and Meinerz, this unit has the potential to be a top-12 offensive line in the NFL. These additions will certainly help decrease the number of sacks Wilson took last year. He was sacked 55 times, which was tied for the highest in the league.

The team will also return Tim Patrick while also hoping to have Sutton and Jeudy available more regularly throughout the season. The team signed former Saints receiver Marquez Callaway and drafted Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round, giving them more depth at receiver than they had last season. They also hope to welcome back Javonte Williams, who could be ready for Week 1. They’ll also have Dulcich for a full season after he missed the first seven games of the 2022 season.

One could argue that’s not even the best news yet. That could very well be the hire of the new head coach, Sean Payton. In 15 seasons as the Saints’ head coach, his offenses finished top-12 in scoring in 14 of them. They were top-10 in total yards in 13. They finished in the top 12 a total of 13 times in passing yards and 14 times in passing touchdowns.

I understand Payton had Drew Brees, but Wilson was on that level from 2012-2021. If anyone can get him playing like that again, it’s Payton. Just about everything in the 2022 season went wrong for Wilson, but just about everything in the 2023 offseason has gone right.

Prediction: Russell Wilson bounces back by throwing for more than 3,800 yards and 25+ touchdowns.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

This one comes down entirely to coaching. Bill Belichick ended the Joe Judge and Matt Patricia offensive coordinator experiment and hired Bill O'Brien. That’s all we needed. It really is that simple.

Let’s start out with Matthew Stafford in his three years prior to Patricia’s hiring compared to his two full seasons with him vs. what happened in the following two full seasons he no longer had Patricia as a head coach.

What you’re going to find looking at the table below is that Stafford’s numbers universally dropped across the board once Patricia came to Detroit. Then, almost all of his numbers increased when he was no longer under Patricia. Funny how that works. You will notice I did not include the 2020 season and that’s because Patricia was fired midway through the year.

Then there’s Joe Judge. Like Patricia, he had worked under Bill Belichick before getting a head coaching gig with the New York Giants. He was brought on following Daniel Jones’ rookie season. Now everyone has their opinions about Jones, but people forget his rookie season was really quite good.

He only started 13 games, but he averaged 233 yards, 1.85 touchdowns, and 0.92 interceptions per game. Extrapolated over 17 games, that comes to 3,961 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 15 picks. Not too shabby for a rookie whose best receiver was the 31-year-old Golden Tate. There was actually a lot of excitement about Jones, but Judge would help ruin all of that.

Similar to Stafford, we find that a lot of Jones’ numbers declined when Judge came to New York and they improved as soon as he was gone. His touchdown rate, yards per game, and QB rating all declined noticeably under Judge. Now, if just one of Patricia or Judge could have that kind of impact, imagine what both of them together are capable of.

Not surprisingly, almost all of Mac Jones’ numbers got worse. The fact these two knuckleheads no longer have any input in the Patriots’ offense is enough for me to jump back on Jones’ bandwagon. It's hard to conceptualize just how important coaching is, but for a quarterback it is paramount. When you look at the past negative effects Patricia and Judge have had on Stafford and Daniel Jones, respectively, that should give fantasy managers optimism that Mac Jones will be much better in 2023.

The Pats also signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki in free agency. Neither player is elite by any means. Neither of them is even very good, but they’re both quality players who will add more firepower to an offense that was desperately lacking capable and quality pass-catchers last season.

Gesicki will be essentially replacing Jonnu Smith, which is a significant upgrade in terms of play-making. While Smith-Schuster is not an upgrade to his predecessor, Jakobi Meyers, his addition was crucial to give the team a slot receiver and dependable underneath target.

Gesicki became an afterthought in Miami’s new offense under Mike McDaniel. But prior to 2022, he had back-to-back seasons of over 700 or more yards from the tight end position. He and Hunter Henry will give the Patriots' offense one of the better tight end duos in the league. Based on O'Brien’s history with New England, they’re going to use them together regularly.

In Bill O’Brien’s final three years with the Texans, he used 12-personnel (2 WR/2 TE) on passing downs often:

2018 — 2nd-most (31%)
2019 — 3rd-most (28%)
2020 — 7th-most (24%)

Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry are both going to play a ton — especially Henry.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) June 17, 2023

Smith-Schuster has never followed up on his epic first two seasons in Pittsburgh when he had 169 receptions, 2,343 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Since those two seasons, Smith-Schuster has operated as a decent slot receiver.

He missed four games in 2019 and 12 weeks in 2021. In 2020 and 2022 when he played 16 games in both seasons, he averaged 115 targets, 88 receptions, and 882 receiving yards. With the change at offensive coordinator and the pass-catching additions, Jones is due for a bounce-back season.

Prediction: Mac Jones bounces back and throws for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. 

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