NFL Draft Booms or Busts? Ranking Every NFL No. 1 Pick Since 2000

July 19, 2023

The No. 1 pick in the NFL has high expectations every year. Sometimes the player booms or busts. Here are how the NFL No. 1 picks rank over the past 23 years.

The NFL Draft is fun for football fans and crucial to NFL franchises. It offers a chance for teams to change the entire trajectory when they connect on a pick or miss horribly with a bust. That's especially true for teams that are lucky enough to select with the No. 1 overall pick.

Over the past several years, fans have become more interested in the NFL Draft to see which players their favorite team selects. After being a two-day event for 22 years, the NFL Draft became a three-day event in 2010.

This year the first overall pick was Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The rookie quarterback is now the franchise cornerstone for the Carolina Panthers. While he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet, how have the other 23 No. 1 overall picks fared since 2000? Let's rank them!

No. 23-18

23) JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (2007)

Many believe Russell is the biggest bust in the history of the NFL Draft. Some draft experts declared him a can’t-miss prospect and a future Hall of Famer before getting drafted. However, the former LSU quarterback struggled with his weight and only lasted three years in the NFL. Russell ended his career with more interceptions (23) than passing touchdowns (18).

22) Courtney Brown, EDGE, Penn State (2000)

Despite having massive expectations, the former Penn State edge rusher was a total disaster in the NFL. Brown had only 4.5 sacks as a rookie, finishing fourth in the Defensive Rookie of the Year award race. Furthermore, Brown had 19 career sacks, with nearly a third coming in 2003.

21) David Carr, QB, Fresno State (2002)

Carr was the first-ever draft pick by the Houston Texans. Unfortunately, the expansion franchise didn’t do the rookie any favors. The former Fresno State star got sacked 76 times as a rookie, an NFL record. Carr also got sacked 68 times in 2005, the third-most in NFL history. Furthermore, he led the NFL in sacks in three of his first four years in the league.

In 43 snaps this preseason, Andrew Luck has taken 3 sacks.

Based on his career snaps per game average, Luck will take 77 sacks over a 16-game season if his current pace holds.

The NFL record for most sacks taken in a single-season?

76 by David Carr in 2002 with the Texans.

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) August 21, 2018

20) Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia (2022)

Some were critical when the Jacksonville Jaguars took Walker over Aidan Hutchinson last year. Unfortunately, the former Georgia Bulldog had only 3.5 sacks, and 10 quarterback hits as a rookie. Meanwhile, Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hits while finishing second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year award race. While his rookie season was disappointing, Walkers still has time to turn things around.

19) Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (2018)

The Cleveland Browns drafted Mayfield after going 0-16 in 2017. While he finished second in the Offensive Rookie of the Year award race, the former Oklahoma star never made the Pro Bowl. Furthermore, his best year was his rookie season, throwing 27 touchdowns. Now Mayfield is fighting for a starting job in Tampa Bay. Hopefully, he can get his career back on track.

18) Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State (2015)

While he came with some maturity questions, Winston was the first overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Marcus Mariota. The former Florida State star won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and made the Pro Bowl in 2015. Unfortunately, Winston struggled to protect the ball, throwing 88 interceptions during his time with the Buccaneers.

No. 17–12

17) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (2010)

Bradford was super lucky. Starting in 2011, the NFL implemented a rookie draft pay scale. Therefore, the former Oklahoma star was the last No. 1 overall pick to get a massive contract before playing a snap in the NFL. Unfortunately, Bradford struggled to stay healthy during his career, including missing the 2014 season. While he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2010, that was the highlight of his career.

16) Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan (2013)

Many were surprised when the Kansas City Chiefs selected Fisher over Luke Joeckel and Lane Johnson. While the team would have been better off drafting Johnson, Fisher was the correct call over Joeckel. The former Central Michigan star had two Pro Bowl selections but also had four years where he surrendered six or more sacks.

15) Jared Goff, QB, California (2016)

Goff’s career with the Los Angeles Rams was a roller coaster. He had an awful rookie season before making the Pro Bowl in his first two years with Sean McVay on the sideline. Goff then regressed and ultimately got traded to the Detroit Lions in the deal for Matthew Stafford. However, the veteran bounced back last year with 29 passing touchdowns, the second-most of his career.

14) Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (2021)

Yes, some will argue that Lawrence is too low on the list. However, he will be much higher on the list a year from now. The former Clemson superstar did have an awful rookie season. More importantly, Lawrence was outstanding last year. He more than doubled his passing touchdown numbers from his rookie season while cutting his interceptions more than in half.

Trevor Lawrence escaped Urban Meyer and EXCELLED under Doug Pederson last szn:

Rookie season: 216 FPTS (12 FPPG) QB22
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Sophomore SZN: 303.6 FPTS (16.9 FPPG) QB8

The Prince Who Was Promised is primed to take ANOTHER step forward in Year 3 🚀 pic.twitter.com/awndZxOgO4

— Jacob W. Dunne (@AintDunneYet) June 30, 2023

13) Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma (2019)

While some believe Murray is overrated, the Arizona Cardinals star won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2019. The former Oklahoma star made the Pro Bowl in the next two seasons. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL last year and likely will miss part of the 2023 season recovering. However, the young quarterback has been productive since joining the NFL.

12) Alex Smith, QB, Utah (2005)

Unfortunately, Smith is known for two reasons. One is being the quarterback the San Francisco 49ers drafted over Aaron Rodgers. The other is for nearly losing his leg to an on-the-field injury in 2018. However, the former Utah star ended his career with two Pro Bowl appearances and over 35,000 passing yards.

No. 11–6

11) Carson Palmer, QB, USC (2003)

Palmer was supposed to be an elite NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Yet the former USC star finished top five in the MVP voting in his second NFL season. Furthermore, Palmer had a second half to his career starting in 2013 with the Arizona Cardinals. He finished second in the MVP voting in 2015 behind Cam Newton.

10) Jake Long, OT, Michigan (2008)

While he struggled with injuries towards the end of his career, Long was outstanding early on. He made four consecutive Pro Bowls to start his career. Furthermore, the former Michigan star made two AP All-Pro teams within his first three seasons.

9) Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE, South Carolina (2014)

The NFL world had high expectations for Clowney the second he made that highlight reel tackle against Michigan. Unfortunately, the former South Carolina star never lived up to the hype. He never had more than 9.5 sacks any year of his career. Yet, Clowney totaled nine or more sacks three times, including two years ago.

8) Cam Newton, QB, Auburn (2011)

Newton hit the NFL ground running. The former Carolina Panthers quarterback won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and made the Pro Bowl in 2011. He ended his career with three Pro Bowl selections. More importantly, Newton was the NFL MVP in 2015 and led the Panthers to the Super Bowl. While the latter half of his career was less productive, the former Auburn star is the best quarterback in franchise history.

7) Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (2012)

Unfortunately, Andrew Luck abruptly retired before the 2019 season, leaving the Indianapolis Colts with a disaster at the quarterback position. However, the former top overall pick was considered the top draft prospect since Peyton Manning or John Elway. While Luck only played six years in the NFL, the former Stanford star had three seasons with over 4,200 passing yards and made four Pro Bowl teams.

6) Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech (2001)

After an exciting career at Virginia Tech, the Atlanta Falcons traded up from the fifth pick to secure Vick. The former Virginia Tech star was one of the most entertaining players in NFL history. Furthermore, Vick finished top four in the MVP voting twice over the first four years of his career. Unfortunately, his NFL career was put on hold when he spent nearly two years in prison, although Vick did return to the league and found some success with the Philadelphia Eagles.

20 years ago today the Falcons drafted Michael Vick first overall. Electric highlights followed ⚡️⚡️⚡️

(🎥: @nflthrowback) pic.twitter.com/nfNMueBuNu

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) April 21, 2021

No. 5–1

5) Mario Williams, EDGE, NC State (2006)

Many Houston Texan fans were upset when the team drafted Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young. However, the Texans made the correct call. Williams made four Pro Bowls in his career and two AP All-Pro teams. Furthermore, he had 8.5 or more sacks in over 60% of the years in his career.

4) Joe Burrow, QB, LSU (2020)

While he has only three years of NFL experience, Burrow is already one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second year in the NFL. Meanwhile, the former LSU star has thrown at least 34 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons.

3) Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia (2009)

Stafford joined the Detroit Lions following their 0-16 season in 2008. The former Georgia star put up massive numbers in Detroit but had only four winning seasons in 12 years with the franchise. However, Stafford won the Super Bowl in his first year with the Los Angeles Rams. The veteran would be much lower on the list without the Super Bowl ring.

2) Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas A&M (2017)

Despite having played only six years in the NFL, the Cleveland Brown star is arguably the top pass rusher in the league. More importantly, Garrett is on pace to go down as one of the top edge rushers in NFL history. He has made an AP All-Pro team three consecutive years, including first-team twice. Furthermore, Garrett has totaled at least 10 sacks every year since his rookie season.

Since 2019, Myles Garrett had registered the most double-digit sack seasons ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/9CTLfsKmiI

— Legit Football (@_legitfootball) July 3, 2023

1) Eli Manning, QB, Ole Miss (2004)

While he isn’t his brother Peyton, Eli had an excellent NFL career. He was a four-time Pro Bowler and a two-time Super Bowl champion. Furthermore, the future Hall of Famer was Super Bowl MVP in both victories. Manning is most famous for forcing a draft day trade from the San Diego Chargers to the New York Giants.

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