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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 1/8/26. Expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges, and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller's NBA Props! We've got a smaller, four-game slate on the schedule tonight. However, with every game featuring a total above 230 points and not a single spread above eight points, there should still be some value on player props.
Three teams (Charlotte, Chicago, and Utah) are on the second leg of a back-to-back, so we don't have their injury reports yet. Bennedict Mathurin and P.J. Washington are two of the bigger names that are expected to be out this evening, and there may be some angles to take advantage of there.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Thursday, January 8th. Prop picks can range from individual stats, such as points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive statistics, to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets and Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Brandon Miller over 20.5 Points
- Andrew Nembhard over 26.5 Points + Assists
- Matas Buzelis over 17.5 Points
- Kel'el Ware over 19.5 Points + Rebounds
- Brandon Williams over 13.5 Points
Brandon Miller over 20.5 Points (-105 BetMGM), (-108 NOVIG)
Hornets wing Brandon Miller missed Wednesday's game with a knee contusion, but it is not a long-term injury, and he should be back for this one. Miller leads the team with an average of 20.1 points per game and ranks second in usage behind only LaMelo Ball. He's been in even better form recently, averaging 26.6 points over his last five games.
The matchup against Indiana should allow Miller to continue his hot streak. It allows the sixth-most points in the league and ranks just 24th in defensive efficiency.
With the Hornets playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, they could rest someone like Ball, which would further improve the outlook for Miller. Ball has played the last couple of back-to-back sets, but he has also sat out the second leg multiple times this season. Even if the Hornets play at full strength, it is a great matchup for Miller, and he should score more than 20.5 points.
Andrew Nembhard over 26.5 Points + Assists (-112 Bet365), (-116 NOVIG)
The Pacers knew they would need more from Andrew Nembhard this season, with lead guard Tyrese Haliburton out with an Achilles injury. The fourth-year guard has answered the call thus far, averaging a career-high 17.2 points and 7.0 assists through 29 games.
Tonight's matchup against Charlotte lines up as a great spot for Nembhard. Charlotte ranks just 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing the 11th-most points and the fourth-most assists in the league.
In addition to the great matchup, Bennedict Mathurin has been ruled out for this game, which will increase the role for Nembhard. In seven games with Mathurin inactive this season, Nembhard has posted a usage of 26.5% (+1.8%) and an assist rate of 39.0% (+3.7%). He's averaged 19.9 points and 8.1 assists per game across those seven contests.
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Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of Jaylen Brown to go over 29.5 points at -110, then anyone can flip the bet and take the under on his points prop at +110. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
Top Value Props and Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies in the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Matas Buzelis over 17.5 Points (-107 DraftKings), (+100 NOVIG)
Chicago forward Matas Buzelis has taken on a larger role as the Bulls are dealing with a rash of injuries. Josh Giddey remains out, and Coby White sat out the front end of the back-to-back last night. White has a chance to return for this game, but he will almost certainly be on a minutes restriction again.
Additionally, Jalen Smith and Zach Collins are each expected to be out again. With the Bulls short-handed, Buzelis has played over 30 minutes in four straight games. He has cleared 17.5 points in four of his last five and now gets a matchup against the uptempo Miami Heat.
Miami plays at the fastest pace in the league, and it has allowed the 11th-most points in the league despite ranking in the top five in defensive efficiency. Buzelis should be able to take advantage of a few extra possessions in this fast-paced game environment and go over 17.5 points again.
Kel'el Ware over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-108 FanDuel), (-112 NOVIG)
Miami big man Kel'el Ware has taken his game to another level in his second NBA season. He is averaging 12.3 points and 10.6 rebounds in 25.1 minutes per game. Miami is as close to full strength as they have been all season, with Tyler Herro back in the lineup and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (questionable) the only key rotation member listed on the injury report.
With Herro active for the first time in a month in the last game, Ware maintained his starting role and played 28 minutes. He also managed 10 shot attempts and grabbed 11 boards. Only a 3-of-10 shooting performance kept him from clearing 20 points and rebounds.
Coach Spo’s current thoughts on Kel’el Ware:
“Kel’el was introduced to a guy (Gobert) who brought a physical presence…Kel’el bounces back, these experiences are good for him — his growth has been immense but has not been linear…he’s significantly better than where he was last… pic.twitter.com/4O1P3wW8Yo
— 𝙃𝙚𝙖𝙩𝘾𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 (@WadexFlash) January 7, 2026
His 18 points and rebounds in the last game came in a tough matchup against Minnesota. He gets a much better spot tonight against Chicago, which plays at the third-fastest pace and ranks just 25th in defensive efficiency. Chicago is a below-average rebounding team, and it allows the fifth-most points in the paint, an area in which Ware has scored nearly 58% of his points. The Bulls are also expected to be short-handed in the frontcourt, with Jalen Smith and Zach Collins both out with injuries.
Ware should continue his strong second campaign and clear 19.5 combined points and rebounds.
Brandon Williams over 13.5 Points (-121 DraftKings), (-118 NOVIG)
Dallas guard Brandon Williams has seen his role fluctuate this season. He began the season playing a small rotation role, but his play eventually earned him an opportunity in the starting lineup. The emergence of undrafted rookie Ryan Nembhard pushed him back to the bench, but Williams maintained a significant role while splitting point guard minutes with Nembhard.
The rookie has since fallen out of favor, and Dallas has gone back to starting Cooper Flagg at point guard for the last two games. Williams' role remains secure off the bench as he generally plays mid-20s minutes and closes games in the lineup. With P.J. Washington expected to miss this game, that closing role should be even more secure for Williams.
Mavs Brandon Williams 18 PTS (7-13 FG, 1-2 3P), 2 AST, 2 REB, 2 STL, game-winning three vs. Kings
Stats last 5 games: 19.0p/4.4r/3.4a/1.0s on 58.1% FG, 42.8% 3P, 65.1% TS in 27 MPG https://t.co/0YLxuxOI1S pic.twitter.com/zkQzbcfPHm
— Role Player Performances (@BenchHighlights) January 7, 2026
Williams has played extremely well over the last five games, scoring more than 13.5 points in each contest. Tonight, he gets an elite matchup against a Utah team that has allowed the most points in the league and ranks dead last in defensive efficiency. Williams should continue his streak and surpass 13.5 points for the sixth consecutive game.
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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