MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (4/27/2025)

April 27, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/27/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

Every MLB team is in action today, and we even have a double-header for the Yankees and Blue Jays, so there are 16 games to choose from when making our HR prop selections!

I am rolling with five different home run hitters today since we have so many good spots to choose from. Always check the weather, but it doesn't appear to be too many trouble spots today, with good weather expected across much of the country.

Thanks for following our HR prop bets here at RotoBaller. We have been thrilled with the response from readers so far. All wagers are from MLB games on Sunday, April 27, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, April 27:

• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers - 1:40 pm
• Lawrence Butler, Athletics - 4:05 pm
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays - 4:10 pm
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres - 4:10 pm
• Teoscar Hernandez, L.A. Dodgers - 4:10 pm

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We start with a Detroit Tiger NOT named Spencer Torkelson! While Torkelson is the top power threat in this Detroit lineup, my research shows that Baltimore's starting pitcher, Dean Kremer, has been terrible against lefties this season. He's allowed five home runs to southpaws and a .356/.377/.644 slash line. That's pretty bad, folks, and Kremer's ERA of 6.84 is the second worst on the slate. He's a fly ball pitcher who isn't striking guys out (14.7 percent) and is getting barreled at an 11.7 percent rate.

This was a tough choice between Carpenter and teammate Riley Greene, who left the yard yesterday in Detroit's win. Greene has better odds at +500 or better on most books, and I may sprinkle some action there, too, but Carp is the guy who has been a more consistent power threat over the last few seasons.

Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Athletics are implied to score 5.8 runs today against the White Sox, and I want some action on their bats against starter Davis Martin and a White Sox bullpen that's carrying a 4.53 ERA through the first month.

Butler had two home runs in the Texas series, but went 0-5 with four strikeouts on Friday night. His manager gave him the day off yesterday, and he should be ready to try to murder every baseball thrown at him today.

Back-to-back nights with a home run for Lawrence Butler! pic.twitter.com/d0prJ5coBE

— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2025

Seriously, if you watch Butler swing, it looks like he's trying to hit the cover off the ball every time. That's the kind of batspeed that we want when hunting for home runs. Butler has four bombs on the season and is at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park.

Let's get back to the matchup here. Butler faces Martin, who has allowed three home runs to lefties and a .489 SLG. Martin's 50.5 percent HardHit percentage is the worst mark on the slate today, and he carries a bloated 6.36 xERA. The chances that Butler and the Athletics have a big day at the plate look good.

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Brandon Lowe OVER .5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Lowe has some of the most pop in his bat that you will see from a middle infielder. He can struggle with contact at times, but there is no questioning his raw power. He is usually a dead pull hitter (common for home run hitters) but went "oppo-taco" on Dylan Cease last night for his fourth dinger of the season.

Brandon Lowe opposite field HR for the first run of the game! pic.twitter.com/0mPfVnKZdT

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) April 27, 2025

Lowe will face right-hander Randy Vasquez in today's game, which is a matchup that I love for him. Not only is Vasquez a low strikeout (nine percent), high-contact (92 Z-Contact percentage) pitcher, but he also has sharp splits with lefties hitting .283 against him compared to righties at just .167.

Vasquez has terrible numbers across the board and is a ticking time bomb. His 3.97 ERA is super fluky when you consider his SIERA is 6.93 and xERA is 6.12. He's walking 17 percent of the hitters he faces and has only a 39 percent GB percentage. Something has to give, right?

I love anytime we get +500 odds on a guy like Lowe. He can be streaky, but perhaps he started his hot streak last night and is ready to go on another roll for a few games. I certainly think it's worth taking a shot on him in this favorable matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 FanDuel Sportsbook)

We are staying in the same game but flipping over the Padres side here with Tatis. The young superstar has been fantastic through the first month, hitting .347 while clubbing eight homers. He's finally healthy and reminding everyone he's among the top hitters in the game.

His HR odds have quickly adjusted, so head over to FanDuel to get a better number here. I don't usually pick too many hitters under +300, but I really can't pass up this spot for Tatis as he's facing Rays' righty Zack Littell.

Littell enters today's game with a 13.2 percent barrel rate and a 5.28 ERA (5.50 xERA). He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher with just a 35 percent GB percentage. He's shown some reverse splits this season in terms of allowing more power to righties. Of the eight home runs he's surrendered, five have come to right-handed hitters. Yikes!

That's great for Tatis, who has slugged all eight of his home runs off RHP so far this season. He's hitting .378 against them with a massive .492 wOBA and .365 ISO. Tatis is making a lot of contact, too, striking out just 15 percent of the time, the lowest mark of his career.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 FanDuel Sportsbook)

I'm not sure that there is a better, more well-established, bona fide lefty-masher in all of Major League baseball than Teoscar Hernandez. The big man is hitting .481 against lefties this season with a 324 wRC+. He's cranked four of his seven home runs off lefties, though he took a RHP out of the park in last night's win against the Pirates.

TEOSCAR HERNÁNDEZ TEES OFF 🚀 pic.twitter.com/AiO8gz1eNw

— MLB (@MLB) April 27, 2025

Teoscar had a .284 ISO against lefties last season and an impressive 154 wRC+. If you go back to his days in Toronto, his splits remain strong. In 2022, he had a .363 ISO against lefties while mashing 17 home runs off them. He's established his dominance over the Southpaws for some time, and it's part of the reason the Dodgers brought him in to build this Death Star of a lineup.

Enough gushing about Teoscar, let's talk about Bailey Falter. He has an ERA of 5.12 and some concerning marks with a nine percent Barrel percentage and 50 percent Hard Hit percentage. He's not a total gas can, but I am willing to say he's mediocre, at best. He's a guy who has to nibble at the corners and locate everything perfectly to pitch effectively, and his mistakes in the middle of the zone get punished. Hernandez is a punisher of mistakes, so let's hope Falter leaves a few meatballs in the zone.

Hernandez has some solid history against Falter as well. Teoscar is hitting .444 with two home runs in nine career at-bats against Falter. That BvP is pretty darn good and is the icing on the cake when it comes to being the final "feels good" stat you look at before clicking on this prop.

Thanks for reading and good luck today!

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