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Antonio Losada examines Le'Veon Bell's first seven games with the New York Jets and makes a case for why you should keep the faith with the star running back.
As soon as it came, it went. The trade deadline arrived and passed without the New York Jets moving Le'Veon Bell out of town as it was speculated in the hours prior to the market closing. The relation between the player and the organization seems to have been sour for a while now. It didn't start well, and as the season is proving, the Jets made the wrong decision when they decided to hand Bell as much money as they put on the table.
Through Week 8, Bell is back from his holdout last year and has played in every game, and that's about all the good news he's brought to New York with him. His outings since joining Gang Green are not what we have been accustomed to seeing from him.
With just nine games left to play on the Jets schedule, it is time to know if Bell can amend his year or not.
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From Ringing Bell To Silent Bell
Le'Veon Bell has been in the NFL since he was drafted by the Steelers in 2013. From that moment to this point in 2019, Bell has amassed 5,685 rushing yards on 1,338 attempts and scored 36 touchdowns on the ground. To that, he's been able to add 2,847 extra yards on 344 receptions for eight receiving touchdowns.
Those numbers, starting with the first game of the 2013 season, rank Bell third in rushing yards, first in receiving yards, and second in yards from scrimmage (among all RBs). Only LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore have reached heights comparable to those of Bell in that span.
Raw, overall production numbers are great. But Bell hasn't looked close to his old self since holding out and missing the entire 2018 season and moving to New York. These are Bell's splits from 2013 to 2018 on the left, and from his 2019 season on the right.
As you can see, the difference is massive. He's not besting any number other than his receiving touchdowns (fairly random, to start with), and the gap is quite large between the most important of them.
Bell has always been considered one of the greatest rushers around, but he's dropped from 86 to 50 yards per game this season and his season-best yardage mark is 70, even lower than his career average. While maintaining his targets and receptions relatively close to what he has done in the past, his yards have dropped from 43 to 27 per game, which is normal to a certain point when you consider the downgrade in QB (from Ben Roethlisberger to Sam Darnold and his minions) but still inexcusable coming from someone of Bell's talent.
Is It About Bell, Or About The Jets?
Digging a little deeper, we find out that perhaps the Jets have not made things easy for Bell this year. Not just because of Sam Darnold missing time to injury or because of the lack of offensive talent, but also because of reasons out of their hands such as the schedule.
On the left side, I have plotted the strength of schedule from Weeks 1 to 8, and on the right that from Weeks 9 to 17. As you can see, the Jets have faced the sixth-worst possible matchups for RBs so far, while they will have the 12th-best remaining matchups going forward. That should help Bell improve his production at least somewhat. It is also worth taking into consideration that Sam Darnold should start to operate at full capacity as he gets healthier and some players make their comebacks (notably TE Chris Herndon), which will improve Bell's environment.
Looking at the past five full seasons (2014 to 2018), the Jets have had 12 RBs reach 50 rushing attempts in the season they played. Bell is on pace to run 249 times, which would be the most a Jets running back did in that span (Chris Ivory ran 247 times in 2015). That would make Bell an outlier in the Jets' system, so that doesn't help his owners' expectations.
Bell is also on pace to reach 798 rushing yards. That would put him fourth among those 12 historic Jets seasons while only Chris Ivory in 2015 crossed the 1,000-yard mark. Again, it is not that the Jets have featured record-breaking rushers lately. On the receiving side, Bell's 73 receptions for 427 yards project as the best among those in the group by far with Bilal Powell's 58 receptions and 388 yards in second place.
Finally, Chris Ivory's 2015 season was also the best in fantasy points per game at 13.5, but it would fall short of Bell's average of 13.9 this year. All in all, Bell is under-performing but the Jets are also not a team primed to make the most of him, so the blame here should be shared.
Where Will Bell End The Fantasy Season?
As I just mentioned, Bell is averaging 13.9 points per game (PPR leagues). That makes him the 84th-best player overall and the RB19, barely a weekly RB2. Through their first seven games of the season in 2018, only Melvin Gordon had better statistics than Bell this season with the same level of usage:
- 2019 Le'Veon Bell (through seven games played): 109 attempts for 349 yards, 42 targets for 187 yards.
- 2018 Melvin Gordon (through seven games played: 91 attempts for 466 yards, 42 targets for 279 yards.
What I'm trying to say is that Bell's 2019 season, last year at this same point, would have him as the RB9 in rushing yards, the RB6 in receiving yards, and the RB4 in fantasy points. That is not bad production by any means, and players with lesser outcomes by then flipped the switch later in the season and finished as league-winners for their owners (Phillip Lindsay, just to say one name).
I'm the first one who has tried to buy low on Bell the past couple of weeks to no luck. If he puts up another one or two bad games it is possible that his fantasy owners start to lose their patience and try to dump him for half the price he should carry, all things considered.
While this new Bell is not the Bell we knew from past seasons, this is still a great player stuck in a very bad situation with enough upside to finish on a good run and bring the loot to his owners. So if you can add him via trade, don't hesitate and make the move for him. Only good things will be coming your way.
