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Happy Opening Week, RotoBallers! I'm sure I can speak for all of you when I say that I'm thrilled to have a full season of baseball on tap to grind through this spring, summer, and fall. What a refreshing feeling!
If you missed my intro article on Tuesday, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.
I'll be posting my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!
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MLB Opening Week Intro
Before we continue our plays to start the first week of the season, keep in mind that the first couple of weeks of the MLB grind are very much a time of learning and adjustment to the trends and analysis we used from last season. A lot of what I lean on in the first handful of plays is how my gut says a team will look, what I know hasn't changed much from last season, and how the market seems to be treating a team. Then, as we begin to get a larger sample size of statistics and performances from 2021, we can factor those things in more and more. PLEASE always bet responsibly, especially early in the season, and NEVER wager more than you're comfortable losing.
If you EVER have any questions on a specific game or just my process in general, don't hesitate to reach on Twitter @BellRoto. Getting to throw different stances, angles, and opinions back and forth with followers and fellow sports bettors is by far my favorite aspect of incorporating Twitter into this series. Let's play ball!!
As a reminder, this series will be free access for all readers for the first three days of the season. Starting Sunday, only Premium Betting subscribers will get access to Bell's Best Bets. To sign up, follow the link here, and be sure to use the promo code BELL for 10% off. Reach out on Twitter with any questions or concerns!
Recap for 4/1/2021
As I mentioned in my 4/1 recap tweet linked above, there were plenty of positives to take away from our first MLB betting day despite a 1-2 record overall. There's always a chance that a particular stance or analysis is completely off base when we start a new season, but I felt like I was right on track with my expectations for each of the six teams I broke down on Tuesday. The outcomes just didn't fall our way this time. That being said, it's easier to trust the process when the game scripts and smaller pieces seem to be on track with expectations, and we can have faith that the positive results will follow!
For those who followed along in 2020, remember that my first week resulted in something like a -5 unit start before I started to figure things out, get in a groove, and run us up to a 20+ unit profit within the next month of games. If a few tough days in the first week are enough to drive you away, then best of luck to you moving forward! But I'm confident that the hot streak will be back this year as it was in 2020. It's just a matter of how long it takes me to find that groove again!
MLB Plays for 4/2/2021
We have a rather light second act on tap for Friday, as all of the day games from Thursday are scheduled for a day off (except for the Red Sox and Orioles due to their postponed contest yesterday). As a result, we have a smaller slate of games to work with, which usually means less plays, if any at all.
However, I have a surprisingly good feel for four of these seven Friday contests. We're going to tread lightly and have some fun, as it is just the second day of a very long season. If you decide to fade my half-unit plays below until I get a better feel for all of these teams, I wouldn't blame you in the slightest. But full transparency is what I'm all about, so without further ado here's where I'm looking for Friday 4/2.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles over 9 runs (-125)
Risking 1.25 units
My first full-unit play comes in the afternoon, with the second attempt at Boston's home opener going over the total of 9 runs. Both the Red Sox and the Orioles have sneaky deep lineups with a combo of experienced and up-and-coming hitters rounding out their 5-9 spots in their orders. Combine that with a hitter's ballpark in Fenway and two pitchers who have been known to let up a home run or two, and we have ourselves an "over" spot! To put that into context a bit, John Means sported a 2.47 HR/9 rate in 2020. Nate Eovaldi's wasn't nearly as high at 1.49, but he did let up a career high 39.7% hard contact rate (!!), so it's safe to expect a couple of bombs in this one despite the chilly temperatures in Boston.
I tip the scales in favor of the Red Sox a bit when it comes to bullpen comparison, mostly due to Adam Ottavino and Matt Barnes at the back end, but there are still plenty of question marks in both 'pens, especially if the starters can't get through six innings. Throw in the fact that some silly errors are more likely in this series in the cold weather than they are in about two weeks, and I project a high scoring affair here. Also interesting to note that 7 of the 13 games yesterday resulted in at least nine runs scored. Let's root for another high total opener in New England on Friday!
Miami Marlins (Even) vs Tamp Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox (Even) at Los Angeles Angels
San Francisco Giants (+110) at Seattle Mariners
Risking 0.5 unit on each of the three (welp, see below for an added 0.5 unit)
Well I couldn't seem to come up with a firm stance to take on any of these three games ahead of the other two (so I thought...), so we're scaling it back and throwing half a unit on each underdog with some parlay fun to follow below (it is Friday after all!!). So here's a quick paragraph on each play:
Pablo Lopez is a very good pitcher, and while Ryan Yarbrough isn't bad in his own right, I give the pitching edge to the Marlins, who's 'pen looked good yesterday too outside of a solo shot to Austin Meadows. The top of the Marlins order was ROUGH on Thursday, but there's plenty of promise there, and I think they'll come around nicely on Friday to put up 4-5 runs. I'm not intimidated by the Rays bats compared to some other deadly lineups in the league, and I think Lopez can keep them to two runs through six innings, so we need the bullpen to limit them to one run in the final three frames for a win.
I'm back on the White Sox after a disappointing end to last night's game from an offensive and bullpen standpoint. There are plenty of dangerous right-handed bats in this lineup (including the uber-impressive Luis Robert) that can take advantage of Andrew Heaney, who doesn't scare me in the slightest. Dallas Keuchel had a rough spring stretch, but he seems to do that every year. Coming off a fantastic 2020, I don't see why the White Sox aren't more like -125 in this spot. Again, the name of the game is to avoid damage from the 2-4 spots of this Angels lineup.
The Giants have a significantly more dangerous and balanced lineup compared to the Mariners, especially without Kyle Lewis playing. A brutal eighth inning for their bullpen led to a Mariners comeback win on Thursday, but for the other eight innings San Fran looked fantastic. I also give the edge to Johnny Cueto over lefty Yusei Kikuchi, so if there was any of these three games that I'd be comfortable laying the full unit, it'd be this one. In fact, you know what, I just talked myself into it! Lay another 0.5 unit on the Giants +110 here. Le'ts put it on the board!!
Fun Friday Parlay:
Dodgers ML, Padres ML, Marlins +1.5, White Sox +1.5, and Giants +1.5
Risking 0.25 unit to win 1.62 units
Shout-out to Matt Perrault of the Daily Juice Podcast because I don't want to be accused of plagiarizing his idea! I tune into the Daily Juice once in a while, and he always throws out a "Don't Bet Parlays Parlay" or something to that effect on Fridays. I do agree for the most part with his premise that parlays are a quick way to lose money. But if you risk small amounts, have reasoning behind the play, and go into it totally expecting that one of your games loses by a point (or a run), then it's more of a fun gamble that just may pay off nicely!
So I took the two games I feel most confident about today with the Dodgers over the Rockies (Trevor Bauer on the mound) and the Padres over the Diamondbacks (Blake Snell on mound), and then tossed in my three underdogs that I like on the run line, which means if they lose by a single run, the bet still hits. It's worth noting that all three of these underdogs lost by exactly one run yesterday. I don't think that has any significance leading into today, but this strategy can work well if a game is tight in the later innings. Sure, a home run with men on base can ruin things in a hurry, but when teams start manufacturing runs late, especially in extra innings with a man on second base to start, a one-run loss is pretty common.
Again, by no means am I saying this is a lock-and-load play. Clearly my two favorite plays on the board today are Boston/Baltimore over 9 runs and San Fran +110, but I do have pretty good feels for the other games mentioned here, and we're using 0.5 and 0.25 unit plays to have some fun on a Friday considering it's day two of a long MLB season. If you want to solely follow the afternoon total play and the Giants, I can't blame you one bit.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto and turn your alerts on so that you get any updated plays or adds right away! We have one more day of free premium plays tomorrow (Saturday) before we lock things up for RotoBaller Betting Premium subscribers come Sunday morning. I hope to have you all along for the ride (see "Reminders" below to sign up). It's sure to be a fun one, and I'm trusting that the profits will start to come as the weather warms and these solid predictions turn into rewarding results. My articles won't always be this long and wordy, but clearly my excitement of watching baseball again is spilling over into the early stages of this series.
Have an awesome Friday!
Reminders:
- Link to Premium Sports Betting Tools is here
- Promo Code at checkout is BELL for 10% off
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