Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 16 Outlooks for Jared Goff, James Conner, Davante Adams, and More

December 17, 2024

Kyle's fantasy football sleepers for Week 16 of 2024 based on backfield touches, target shares, and more. Who are the key fantasy football risers and fallers?

Jared Goff Continues His Impressive 2024 Season

Sometimes a little change of scenery can do us all some good, right? It's hard to imagine a time when Jared Goff wasn't a Detroit Lion and it's hard to imagine a time where he wasn't considered a franchise quarterback in the NFL. Still, there was a time when that was the case when Goff was traded from the Rams to the Lions along with two future first-round picks for Matthew Stafford.

Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are the only QBs with 60 passing TDs over the last two regular seasons 🎯 https://t.co/075TKiINCm pic.twitter.com/wuu7v50oH3

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 16, 2024

It's a rare situation where both teams would still do the same trade again years later considering what each side got in return. The Rams got a Super Bowl, and the Lions got the younger quarterback of the two while using the extra draft picks to lay the foundation for a franchise resurgence, and that's been no more evident than this season where Goff is completely balling out with a loaded cast around him.

Goff was 38 of 59 passing for 494 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions on Sunday, and the Lions still lost because of the quarterback on the other side, Josh Allen, and the fact that the Lions' defense has been completely decimated with injuries in recent weeks.

The Lions won a game where Goff threw 5 INT

The Lions lost a game where Goff threw 5 TD

— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) December 16, 2024

Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had 14 receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown on Sunday and the Lions offense was humming. Goff belongs in the MVP conversation this season, but he finished with 41.1 fantasy points in Week 15 with his stellar play. With the injuries to the defense, it's created the perfect storm for fantasy as it relates to the Lions' offense the rest of the way.

Important Wide Receiver Metrics Heading into Week 16

These are the pass catchers with the highest target shares from Week 15. Because of longer load times and frame rates on mobile phones, all the important data points you need are below via my RotoBaller partner, Scott Rinear.

Week 15 Leaderboards: Top 40 WR (PPR)

Some huge WR games that likely won some weeks for people.

Chart includes:

Fantasy Points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap Share
Routes
Route%
Targets
Tgts per Route Run (TPRR)
Target Share

Snaps/routes data courtesy of @PFF_NateJahnke pic.twitter.com/fuAp9hfqlK

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) December 17, 2024

Why is it that the players who do the least during the regular season always seem to do the most in the fantasy playoffs? Because, of course, that's why!

After being a relatively unsatisfactory pick in fantasy leagues everywhere in 2024, New York Jets wide receiver Davante Adams went off in the second half of the team's victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Adams had a total of nine receptions to finish with 198 yards receiving and two touchdowns, good for 38.3 fantasy points. Sheesh.

All in the second half. Unreal day for Davante Adams. pic.twitter.com/dF4J1QmHEI

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Mike Evans of the Bucs was also a pesky veteran who had a monster performance in Week 15. Evans finished with nine receptions for 159 yards and one touchdown. He now needs just 83 yards receiving in each of the Bucs' last three games to go over 1,000 receiving yards in his eleventh straight NFL season. It's even more impressive once you realize that Evans has already missed three games with a hamstring injury.

Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jaguars had himself another solid game on Sunday even with quarterback Trevor Lawrence sidelined for the rest of the season. With Mac Jones under center, Thomas saw 14 total targets to finish with 10 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns, good for 27.5 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. Nice.

What RBs Were Bell-Cows in Week 15?

Here are the backs who played at least 60 percent of their team's offensive snaps in Week 15.

A few notes to consider regarding the running backs heading into Week 16.

Lions running back David Montgomery is feared to have torn his MCL in the team's loss to the Bills on Sunday. This is a big blow to their offense, especially in short-yardage situations, but it likely turns fellow teammate Jahmyr Gibbs into even more of a league-winner over the next two weeks. You were already playing Gibbs anyway, but he's undoubtedly going to see even more touches after this.

It's a brutal blow to the Lions down the stretch as the team's injuries have continued to mount. While they still own the NFC's best record at 12-2, the Eagles are hot on their heels at 12-2 as well. I'd like to think that just about all of America outside of the East Coast and Kansas City are rooting for a Bills - Lions Super Bowl and a rematch of Week 15, but the Lions' defense can only take so much.

After recently getting a contract extension, Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner continues to shine. Conner put up 28.3 fantasy points in Week 15 after they handily beat the New England Patriots 30-17 to get back into the thick of the NFC West divisional race and playoff hunt.

Conner is a hard guy to bet against for fantasy despite his age and injury history. No matter the odds, he just keeps on trucking. His recent extension also generates some doubt for teammate Trey Benson and his fantasy value for 2025 and beyond.

James Conner in the win:

— 16 Carries
— 5 Receptions
— 138 Total Yards
— 2 Touchdowns

BEAST. pic.twitter.com/f1ZUVZcmdD

— Cardinals Muse (@CardsMuse) December 16, 2024

Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals has continued to produce for fantasy in a big way. After seeing over 90 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 15, Brown had another big performance, rushing 25 times for 97 yards and one touchdown while also catching three passes for 16 yards and finding the endzone a second time.

The Bengals offense, led by quarterback Joe Burrow has been incredible this season, but with the defense being as bad as it's been, Cincinnati is still on the outside looking in with a 6-8 record. Nonetheless, their defensive woes as far as fantasy is concerned have created a perfect storm of sorts for all of their offensive skill players, and Brown has been a large beneficiary with fellow back mate Zack Moss sidelined for the year.

The Latest Injury Updates for Week 16

It's important to stay up to date on all of the latest injury news and timelines heading into this week's slate of games. Here are all the latest updates related to injuries by way of Deepak Chona. His analysis is some of the best and he can help give you a realistic expectation for your players heading into Week 16 based on their injuries.

#Saints Alvin Kamara - Groin. Severity TBD. Avg = 2 wks. Limited info, but data so far favors missing Wk 16

#Dolphins Jaylen Waddle - Video suggests MCL sprain. ACL/meniscus also at risk. Avg MCL = 2-3 wks. MRI Mon. Lean towards missing Wk 16

2/5

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) December 16, 2024

Conclusion

As we near the end of the 2024 fantasy season, I'd like to thank you for tuning in and reading this column each week. It's been an awesome ride, and let's not forget what makes fantasy so great at its core: finding a reason to stay in touch with good friends and family members all year no matter what season of life you're in or where you're living.

The fantasy playoffs bring an important shot of adrenaline! There's nothing like sitting through your playoff matchup on Monday Night Football with one of your players going in the game and only a few points separate you from your opponent. My advice is to stick with what got you here and to make those all-important lineup decisions with increased confidence.

Best of luck in this week's matchups and I hope that you will be here again next week as we go for those fantasy championships!

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