Who's #1? Early Look at Picking First Overall

With the off-season fully underway and early drafts already taking place, it’s time to start looking at those players being selected first in drafts. This year offers a very different set of players than we’ve seen in recent memory. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuna Jr. have all fallen out of contention for first... Read More

Why You Need to be More Aggressive with Prospects This Year

The 2020 season brought two major changes for baseball's minor leagues: the cancellation of the MiLB season and MLB’s decision to cut 40 teams from its MiLB affiliates. That combination has reduced the player pool, increased the MiLB talent levels, and left us with a vacuum of information about prospect development. That last item means that... Read More

Which Batters Are Being Overlooked in 2021?

Pre-season analysis has achieved peak velocity, and at this point, we've started to hear certain names mentioned again and again: Jarred Kelenic, Andrew Vaughn, Randy Arozarena. Those three examples follow the expected pattern: young, exciting players whose potential outstrips the established knowledge. Put more simply, there are interesting things to say about Kelenic, Vaughn, and Arozarena. But... Read More

Kings of Candy: Sweet-Spot% Risers

While the 2020 season may not have given us much of a sample to evaluate outcomes (home runs, doubles, flyouts, etc.), the core events of exit velocity and launch angle stabilize more quickly and can be stickier than combination statistics like ISO or BB%. Two of our FSWA Writer-of-the-Year Finalists, Eric Samulski and Nicklaus Gaut,... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 9)

Last week I wrote that the schedule had begun to have an outsized impact on value. At this point, it's not impacting projected value even more than recent performance. There are exceptions to that, but that's the overarching rule this week. Paul Goldschmidt's value has been buoyed by this aspect for much of the season.... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 8)

Welcome to the homestretch. The past week seems to have reversed some of the trends and shifts that we were seeing earlier in the season. Edwin Encarnacion appears resurgent. Brandon Lowe looks like he is scuffling. And Tommy Pham might be coming back. The first two are more complex than they seem, but if Pham... Read More

Willy Adames (SS, TB) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 8

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 32% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Before being called up in 2018, Willy Adames was regarded as a high-floor, five-tool prospect who profiled as a perennial All-Star. Despite hitting 20 HR last year, Adames came into this season well outside the top-15 fantasy shortstops. Recently, however, he’s been making a... Read More

Ryan Mountcastle (1B/OF, BAL) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 8

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 30% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Mountcastle is one of the more recent prospects to be called up and he’s already smacked three homers in his first 13 games. What’s more, he has stacked up five multi-hit games during that time. Mountcastle’s .244 ISO is higher than his... Read More

Alec Bohm (3B, PHI) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 8

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 20% of Leagues ANALYSIS: The Phillies organization and fantasy managers have to be ecstatic about Bohm’s work so far this season. He’s flashed his above-average power and hit tool throughout his 19-game stint thus far. While the small-sample numbers aren’t overwhelming, Bohm has been viable as an everyday... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 7)

The past week brought us one of the coolest trade deadlines in recent memory. It's always a good time when the GM of an MLB franchise starts making trades like a fantasy manager. The changes for Austin Nola, Mitch Moreland, Jonathan Villar, Starling Marte, and Jon Berti are meaningful, but not with clear fantasy implications.... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 6)

The Baller Ranks have a new player at number two, and his name is not Tatis, Yellich, or Acuna. While all three of those players have their claims to the second spot, the change is primarily based on volume. With that hint, can you guess which superstar has more remaining games than any other player... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 5)

When I started writing up the column for this week, it was going to focus on the esteemed gentlemen of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bo Bichette as well as the broader shortstop landscape. Then I started looking at first base and DH and got fixated on what was happening with Cody Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani,... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 4)

Last week's full launch of The Baller Ranks was one of the most gratifying things I've done with fantasy baseball, and I want to thank everyone who reached out with support, suggestions, and questions. To that end, I got some questions about why guys moved or didn't. Early in the season, projection systems struggle to... Read More

The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 3)

Welcome to fantasy baseball if MLB's season were more like the XFL. Between injuries, illness, and inexplicable flukes, this season has already shown the potentially disastrous consequences of an otherwise quiet road-trip to Atlanta. This weeks' news about the Miami-Philadelphia and St. Louis-Milwaukee situations has provided new variables, and managers are scrambling to keep up... Read More

Using the Baller Ranks and Meta Report

The Baller Ranks depict player value and active developments throughout the season. For most leagues, there are somewhere between 250 and 400 fantasy-relevant players. Most weeks feature more than 80 games, a myriad of roster moves, and enough information that many fantasy managers can miss critical changes. In the best sense, the Baller Ranks offer updated... Read More

Red Alert: Luis Robert's 115.8 MPH Smash Means Something

In the hullabaloo of MLB’s opening weekend, you may not have noticed that Luis Robert of the Chicago White Sox — he of the .337 ISO at Triple-A Charlotte — announced his presence with authority on Friday night. In the second inning of his MLB debut, Robert strode to the plate, stood 60 feet and six inches... Read More

Introducing the MLB Baller Ranks

It’s my extraordinary pleasure to introduce The Baller Ranks, an up-to-date rankings sheet for player values. We wanted to roll this out back in March, but 2020 has had other ideas... Ideally, The Baller Ranks are not a set of pre-season rankings or draft recommendations. They are designed to be an in-season set of data-based... Read More

A Crash Course for MLB's Sprint Season

In true 2020-style, baseball is about to get funky. Maybe you’re excited about the idea of getting some strange baseball, or maybe the word “fluid” reminds you of the morning after your last visit to Taco Bell. Either way, it’s time to start sorting the chalupas from the chimichangas. Let’s acknowledge that we’re venturing into... Read More

2019 Breakout Starters Who’ll Continue to Improve

Breakout starters are one of the great joys of fantasy baseball. There are few things more satisfying than adding or drafting a player who emerges as one of the season’s best values. Starting pitchers are particularly prone to come out of nowhere and propel a team to a championship. However, that volatility makes it difficult... Read More

Eliminating Park Factors: Which Hitters Will Benefit Most

As Major League Baseball seeks a way to open the season in early July, one proposal has teams starting or playing the entire season in warm-weather locations (Arizona and Florida) or hub cities. That leaves fantasy managers to re-evaluate hitters whose parks impact their performance and value. For hitters, it’s primarily a matter of considering... Read More

FOMO and the Hype Machine

We’ve officially entered one of my favorite parts of the fantasy baseball season, the cavalcade of articles on sleepers, upcoming prospects, and breakout players. It’s a time of fresh starts, opportunity, and hope, but I’ve also come to wonder if it isn’t potentially distortive and misleading. Case in point: When Luis Robert signed a long-term contract... Read More

Elite Starters and Pitching Trends Revisited

Last year I wrote a series [Part 1, Part 2, Part 3] on whether we were properly valuing elite starting pitchers. The basic premise was that we were likely to see fantasy-relevant starters (not openers) throw fewer innings again in 2019. I hypothesized that if there were fewer and fewer starting pitchers providing 200 innings... Read More

Talking Projections and Data-Based Drafting with Ariel Cohen

The fantasy baseball industry is driven by data and many analysts go so far as to develop their own systems for projecting value. Recently, ATC has become more popular as a baseline for those who are seeking a way to rank players for the upcoming season. I recently had a conversation with the man behind... Read More

Will the Real Shohei Ohtani Please Stand Up?

When he arrived in 2018, Shohei Ohtani was regarded as one of the most dynamic and difficult-to-value players in the league. After two excellent, but injury-marred seasons, that much hasn’t changed. We have a clearer sense of Ohtani’s talent, but drafting him is still a unique challenge. In fact, the fantasy owners I've talked to... Read More

SP Strikeout Risers: 2019 Season Review

For the last four seasons, MLB has seen an increase in strikeout rate (K%). Since 2015, K% has increased from 20.4% to 23.0%. We’ve also seen an increase in walk rates and a poorer league-wide ERA. Those trends can make it difficult to assess whether a pitcher is actually better at inducing swings and misses.... Read More

Second-Half Surgers - Hitters to Buy Now

With all the recent emphasis on the MLB draft, striking on prospect call-ups, and finding early-season breakouts, it’s easy to get lured into complacency during the dog days of summer. The All-Star break marks a clean checkpoint and gives us the opportunity to take stock of underperformers or players poised to outperform their current market... Read More

Welcome (Back) to the Show, Willie Calhoun

Despite being 5’8”, Willie Calhoun is widely regarded as one of the best pure hitters in baseball. However, Calhoun’s size and limited defensive abilities have prevented him from earning elite-prospect status and getting the same hype as similarly-talented batters. Despite his limitations and that perception, the reality is that Calhoun profiles as a potential .290... Read More

Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 10

Week 10 provides a number of young arms and a few pitchers whose limitations make them easy to overlook. I’m particularly excited about the Indians’ calling up Zach Plesac. I’m not sure what happens when Mike Clevinger gets back, but Plesac looks like a legitimate SP2 talent. A reminder before we begin: This column focuses... Read More

Griffin Canning (SP, LAA) - Waiver Wire Pickups Week 9

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 33% of Leagues ANALYSIS: You need a top-tier starter who can provide strikeouts, limit baserunners, win games, and provide a strong ERA? If so, why haven’t you added Griffin Canning, who owns a 3.42 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 28.3 K%? Canning’s numbers in the PCL were... Read More

Alex Verdugo (SP, LAD) - Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 32% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Only 23 years old, Verdugo owns a 60-grade hit tool and a strong plate approach. In the minors, he was a consistent .300 hitter with pop, but he’s struggled to find playing time in the majors. The concern about Verdugo coming into the... Read More