X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 22

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

It's almost time for September call ups, which means it's the perfect time to analyze a pair of highly touted pitching prospects. This week we're breaking down recent outings from Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller and Texas's Kolby Allard. Both have had some hype around them over the last two years, with Keller being considered by some as a the best pitching prospect in baseball. Each are certainly worth a look as we head towards the final month.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 08/26/2019. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers widely available that could be useful in fantasy, whether they have been recently added by a ton of teams or are still sitting on waivers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

10% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 21.1 IP, 8.86 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 13.3% K-BB%

08/23 vs. CIN: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Keller has been one of the hottest pitching prospects in baseball for the last few seasons, but he got absolutely hammered during his first taste of the big leagues. Giving up six runs in each of his first two starts. Keller was so bad he couldn’t even last on the Pirates’ roster. But, with nothing left to lose, Pittsburgh gave him another opportunity to show what he’s got. Keller was so-so in his first two starts, but he dominated the Reds last Friday for a career-high nine strikeouts along with a whopping 19 swinging strikes. Between Keller’s prospect pedigree and outstanding performance, he’s one of the most intriguing pitchers out there in most leagues.

As a prospect, Keller was known for his mid-nineties fastball and plus curveball. Those two pitches made many scouts believe Keller was capable of producing the desirable combination of a high strikeout rate and high groundball rate. Keller was able to maintain a groundball rate around 45% and a strikeout rate around 25% through most levels of the minors, so the analysis of scouts held true until Keller reached the majors. Keller’s fastball hasn’t had as much sink as advertised, and he has just a 35% groundball rate in 27.1 innings. Obviously, that sample size is far too small to make definitive judgements, but batters have been able to square up Keller’s fastball rather well this season. With a 50% line drive rate and 21-degree average launch angle against, it’s no surprise that Keller’s fastball has a .559 BABIP against. Someone may look at Keller’s .438 BABIP against and call him unlucky, and it’s true that BABIP can be an indicator of good or bad luck for a pitcher, but the leaguewide BABIP on line drives is .680. Keller’s been more fortunate on his line drives than most, but he’s giving up 4% more line drives than the average major league pitcher, so his “good luck” evens out since line drives are by far the most likely batted ball to go for a hit. Keller did get an extra quarter-inch of sink on his fastball in this most recent start, and also located it much better. Here’s a comparison of his fastball heatmaps from this start (top) to his other starts (bottom).

He reduced his mid-zone and low-and-away locations, which are where most of the line drives come from. Again, we’re digging deep on a small sample size, but this analysis should make you think twice before seeing his .438 BABIP and sounding the bad luck alarm. This also helps give context for his horrid early-season performances, as Keller was throwing a fastball that was hard and straight and easy to hit. It’s hard to say whether this start will be the turning point in terms of his fastball performance and results, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Keller’s fastball performance was encouraging, but his fastball was a mere side dish compared to his slider in this start. Keller used his fastball 30.8% of the time, and notched 10 of his 19 swinging strikes with the pitch. Keller also added an inch of drop on his slider in this start, improving on his already above-average slider movement. Here’s a look at a few of his sliders from this start.

 

Animated GIF

Animated GIF

It’s hard to tell whether Keller was just on with the slider in this start, or if his gains with the pitch are sustainable. One thing is for sure, I want to be on board this hype train, whether it falls off a bridge or chugs full speed towards Titletown (which is, and always will be, Green Bay, WI).  Keller could easily revert back into a dumpster fire on the mound, but I’m eager to take a shot on an elite prospect who’s finally flashed some of his enormous upside. At just 10% ownership, most others don’t feel the same way. Maybe Keller won’t pop, but this is a low-risk, high-reward player to add heading into the final month. Drop these over-owned veterans like J.A. Happ and Rick Porcello and take a shot with Keller.

Verdict:

A top pitching prospect throws a gem and barely anyone notices. Guess that’s baseball in Pittsburgh these days. Keller’s worth a speculative add in most formats.

 

Kolby Allard, Texas Rangers

4% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 15 IP, 6.60 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%

08/24 @ CWS: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Allard was flipped to Texas for reliever Chris Martin in an under-the-radar deadline deal, and while moving to Globe Life Park is obviously tough for Allard, he has a much easier path to a rotation spot with the Rangers as well. Allard took a beating in his only home start, allowing seven runs (six earned) against the Angels on August 19. Outside of that game, Allard has shown some encouraging signs, and his most recent start in Chicago has been the best thus far. Allard gets it done primarily with his fastball-cutter combo, while using his changeup on occasion and his curveball even less than his change.

Allard’s fastball sits at an unimpressive 92.5-93 MPH, and is below average in both movement and spin. There is one saving grace Allard has had with his heater, and that’s his infield flyball rate. Allard is inducing infield flyballs 30% of the time, which have helped him maintain a stellar 4.8% HR/FB ratio. Obviously, that rate would be unsustainable over a long period of time, but Allard has always excelled and limiting the long ball as a prospect. His ability to keep the ball in the yard should help make up for his other fastball deficiencies, and limit the impact of Globe Life Park. While it’s been a small sample size for Allard this season, his minor league track record suggests this home run suppression is a repeatable skill and something that he can be relied on to deliver, as much as a 22-year-old rookie can be relied on for anything.

The cutter is Allard’s best secondary pitch, as he’s notched a 13.8% swinging strike rate with the pitch, along with six of his nine swinging strikes in this start against Chicago. Not only is the cutter Allard’s best strikeout pitch, but it’s also his best groundball pitch. Batters have a 55.6% groundball rate against the pitch, which has led to a .207 BA and .188 xBA against with this pitch. Allard has just slightly above average movement with his cutter, but it’s still his best pitch and a plus breaking ball capable of producing solid results.

Unlike with Mitch Keller, there isn’t quite enough here to make me want to hop on the Kolby Allard hype train. He’s certainly useful in the right situation, such as a road start against the White Sox, who have a 25% K rate against lefties this season, but it would be tough to trust Allard in tough matchups. Use him as a streamer or a deep league speculative add, but don’t go all-in on Allard.

Verdict:

A top pitching prospect throws a gem and barely anyone notices. Guess that’s baseball in Texas these days. Unlike with Mitch Keller, there is less upside with Allard and therefore less reason to add him. He’s usable as a streamer or deep league pickup, but he’s not as exciting as a breakout candidate.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF