X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 13

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

This week we are looking at two right-handers in the eastern time zone. Joe Musgrove got off to a great start, then imploded, and now put up a dominant start against the Padres last week. The unheralded Austin Voth got some attention with a solid start against the hot-hitting Atlanta Braves on Sunday.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 06/24/2019. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers widely available that could be useful in fantasy, whether they have been recently added by a ton of teams or are still sitting on waivers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Austin Voth, Washington Nationals

0% Owned

2019 Stats (Triple-A): 61.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 19.8% K-BB%

06/23 vs. ATL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Voth was making a spot start for Washington, but with this performance he’s earned himself at least one more turn in the rotation for the Nationals. They demoted the underperforming Erick Fedde in favor of Voth, and Voth gave them good reason to with this outing. He was throwing fire in this game, averaging 94 MPH and touching 96 with his four-seam fastball. He mixed in a curveball as his primary breaking ball in this outing, with the occasional cutter and changeup.

Voth only threw 12 major league innings last season, but he only averaged 91.4 MPH with the pitch. That means his 94 MPH fastball was a huge jump, and Voth got the results to go along with his velocity boost. Voth racked up 12 swinging strikes with the pitch, which gives him a 18.3% SwStr rate, far above the league average on fastballs. He not only got a good amount of strikeouts, but when hitters did make contact they did it straight up. Batters had a 32-degree average launch angle against this pitch, and a 75% flyball rate. While increased flyballs get us all hot and bothered about hitters, a flyball pitcher will generally allow fewer hits than a groundball pitcher. Flyballs will always have a lower BABIP than groundballs by nature, because a flyball than doesn’t go over the fence or find a gap is usually caught. We don’t necessarily need to fear a flyball-heavy pitcher like Voth, because it could lead to fewer hits and baserunners.

The flyballs did hurt him in this start, as Voth gave up two home runs and a double. These extra-base hits were all by elite hitters, but Voth will be facing elite hitters with regularity while pitching in the NL East. Nationals Park is also an above average hitter’s park for home runs, with a 1.2 HR factor (per ESPN park factors). These factors should make owners hesitant to use him at home, in hitter-friendly ballparks, or against high-powered offenses. Luckily, Voth has mostly shown good control in the minors and shouldn’t allow too many hits, keeping the damage low on his home runs. A pitcher can get away with a high home run rate if he limits baserunners, which Voth should have the ability to do based on the profile. It’s a scary proposition for a pitcher with a bad or absent track record like Voth, and given that this was only one start, Voth is only a recommended add in deeper leagues. In standard mixed leagues he’s a pitcher to watch, but not a must-add and certainly not worth blowing any reasonable amount of FAAB on Voth.

Verdict:

Voth upped his fastball velocity significantly compared to last season, and it should correlate to increased strikeouts and fewer baserunners allowed. Beware of home runs and extra-base hits, as Voth was giving up a lot of flyballs in this start. Ultimately, one start is too small of a sample size to make definitive judgements. He is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues, and he’s a pitcher to keep an eye on in standard leagues.

 

Joe Musgrove, Pittsburgh Pirates

38% owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 4.87 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 11.8% K-BB%

06/21 vs. SD: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Musgrove was looking like a big-time breakout during the first month of the season, posting a 1.54 ERA with a 4.43 K/BB ratio in 35 innings. His breakout quickly turned into a breakdown, as Musgrove got hammered in May for an 8.10 ERA and was dropped in mass by fantasy owners. Even with the pitiful results, there is a lot to like about Musgrove’s profile. The 26-year-old righty has one of the deepest arsenals in the game. He boasts two fastballs, a four-seamer and a two-seamer, he has three breaking balls, and has a changeup he uses frequently. Does this make Musgrove a jack of all trades and master of none? Not exactly, as there is plenty of value in each of these pitches.

Let’s start with Musgrove’s stable of breaking balls. The slider is his most used breaker at 23.1%, and there’s good reason for that. Musgrove has a 19.8% SwStr rate with his slider, and batters chase the pitch 41.7% of the time. Even when hitters make contact they struggle, as batters are hitting just .169 with a .174 xBA and .221 xwOBA. He ramped up his slider usage big time in this start at 37%, which is a great sign for Musgrove’s success. He was using the pitch over 30% of the time during his hot April, but lowered his usage in May and June, which saw him struggle. It would be an oversimplification to say that Musgrove will find success if he increases his slider usage, but it would be a step in the right direction. The slider is his best pitch, and Musgrove needs to incorporate it heavily into his pitch mix.

Along with the slider, Musgrove has gotten pretty good results with both his curveball and changeup. His changeup has an 18.8% SwStr against and a 49.4% chase rate, and his 16.7% SwStr and 41.1% chase rate. Batters have struggled against both pitches, with a BA and xBA below .250 and an xwOBA below .270. This gives him three good breaking balls, which is two more than pitcher needs to be successful in the majors. So, what’s the problem then? Why did Musgrove go through such a rough patch through May and into June? The answer seems to lie in increase cutter and sinker usage.

In May Musgrove began using his cutter and sinker more often, which looks to have been a bad move. His sinker has been destroyed by opponents for a .313 AVG and .396 SLG against, and the expected stats are even worse. Sure, the pitch has a 66% groundball rate, but Musgrove has been drowning in baserunners since so many of these groundballs were sneaking through. The Pirates infield defense has been below average thus far, with a negative DRS at every position besides second base. With few exceptions, the sinker is a dying pitch, and Musgrove isn’t good enough or in a position to be an exception. His cutter, on the other hand, just doesn’t stack up compared his other secondary pitch. It has a meager 6.2% SwStr rate and a 93.8% zone contact rate. This pitch is simply outclassed by his slider, changeup, and curveball, and there is no reason to use it other than as a show-me pitch.

With a restricted pitch mix Musgrove should be able to find a workable middle ground between his unsustainable 1.54 ERA April, and his catastrophic 8.10 ERA May. His biggest flaw outside of pitch mix is his weak four-seam fastball. Clocking in at a league average 92 MPH, batters have punished his four-seamer for a .293 AVG and .576 SLG. He also has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate with the pitch, which is especially disturbing for a supposed control artist like Musgrove. His poor fastball will limit his upside, but there is still a lot to like about Musgrove’s profile. The full breakout isn’t here yet, but he’s moving back towards usable territory. Owners should be hesitant to use him in tough matchups due to the blowup potential, but he’s worth watching and adding in deeper leagues.

 Verdict:

The key to success for Musgrove will be utilizing his deep arsenal of breaking balls, and limiting fastball exposure when possible. Pitchers like this can be quite volatile, but can also pay off pretty well when things go right. Musgrove doesn’t deserve our unconditional trust by any means, but he definitely has an interesting profile with lots of upside. Use in softer matchups until he can string together a few good starts in a row to rebuild trust.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF