Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Griffin Canning and Kenta Maeda

June 28, 2023

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 14, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got two AL right-handers to break down this week. First, we'll take a look at Griffin Canning's dominant performance in a very lopsided game. Then, we'll dive Kenta Maeda's first start in two months as he shut down Detroit in his return from the injured list.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 06/26/2023.

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Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels – 29% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 59.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 15.3% K-BB%

06/24 @ COL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

There was plenty of attention on the Angels last Saturday as the Halos put up a franchise-record 25 runs in a 25-1 drubbing of the Colorado Rockies. Lost in the barrage of offense was this gem from Griffin Canning, who put up six scoreless innings in Coors Field, earning his sixth victory in the process. This was one of Canning’s better performances of the year, with the right-hander lowering his season-long ERA to 3.99 following this start. Was this the beginning of something special for Canning, or were the baseball Gods simply on the Angels’ side both in the box and on the mound Saturday?

Originally a second-round pick out of UCLA, Canning was seen as a reliable college arm with a future as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Reliability has been elusive for Canning since debuting back in 2019; he’s never pitched more than 90.1 innings in a season, and he’s never posted an ERA lower than his current 3.99. His development was derailed when he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back in 2021, an injury that would cost him all of 2022.

On the mound, Canning fits the middle-of-the-rotation profile well. He uses a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, incorporating each pitch more than 10% of the time. Canning has never had remarkable velocity, but he has added a little extra this season, averaging a career-high 94.7 MPH with his fastball, nearly a full MPH higher than his career average. Additionally, none of his secondary pitches stand out as a big strikeout weapon, though Canning has gotten strong results from his slider and changeup at times. In short, Canning’s stuff is, err, less than transcendent.

Canning’s slider was a crucial part of his success in this start, as he earned eight of his 18 whiffs with the pitch. Canning’s slider is his best strikeout pitch, with opponents having a 16% swinging strike rate and 34.1% chase rate on the year. That might be Canning’s best strikeout pitch, but that swinging strike rate and chase rate are not impressive in comparison to the sliders of other successful MLB starters. Furthermore, opponents have had no issue hitting the pitch, with batters putting up a .262 AVG and .333 SLG against the pitch this season. These numbers could drop as Canning has a .216 xBA and .312 xSLG with the pitch, but batters also have a 90.5 MPH average exit velocity off his slider, the highest mark of Canning’s career.

Altogether, Canning’s slider appears to be a solid yet unremarkable breaking ball, capable of delivering results when the rest of his game is in check, but incapable of rescuing him when his control or other pitches are off. Canning’s changeup is a much more interesting offering, particularly because of how the pitch has developed over the years.

The velocity boost has affected more than the fastball for Canning, who is throwing his changeup a career-high 90.3 MPH, also a full mile-per-hour harder than his career average. He’s also throwing the pitch more often, with a  career-high 22.3% usage rate. The pitch has also gained two inches of drop this season and has a monster 41.6% chase rate. Here’s an example of the pitch.

As if things could get any worse for Tim Anderson. I know that wasn’t from this start, but that pitch was too wacky not to share. While that was a treat for us to watch, it might bring on PTSD for opposing hitters, who have managed a meager .189 AVG against Canning’s changeup this season, along with a .324 SLG and .265 wOBA. In addition to the strikeout prowess, Canning’s changeup has been stellar at inducing groundballs. Canning has a 61.7% groundball rate and a 0-degree average launch angle against his changeup on the year. While the .244 xBA and .303 xwOBA suggest regression is coming, Canning has still made strides with this pitch, a sign of development that’s great to see from him following his back injury.

Any increase in groundball rate is a good thing for Canning, who has struggled with the long ball throughout his career. He has a career 1.54 HR/9 and has allowed 1.52 HR/9 this season. Batters hit Canning hard, with opponents putting up a 36.7% hard-hit rate and 91.6 MPH average exit velocity against Canning this year. Allowing hard contact isn’t a fatal flaw, and many pitchers such as Framber Valdez and Spencer Strider have thrived in spite of their hard contact rates, but Canning doesn’t possess elite skills in other areas like the example pitchers to overcome this. Canning will never have Spencer Strider’s stuff and he’ll have Framber Valdez’s proclivity for groundballs, so he must reduce his hard contact and focus on groundballs and strikeouts to take the next step.

Verdict:

While Canning still has a lot of areas to improve, there is more good than bad in this profile. He’s increased his velocity, his changeup looks better than pre-injury, and his 6.3% BB rate is by far a career-best. He lacks a dominant strikeout pitch, and his tendency to allow hard contact will get him into trouble. His 45.7% groundball rate this season is a good start, but he’ll need to focus on keeping the ball down if he wants to cut back on home runs, as he’s already surrendered 11 dingers in 12 starts.

Canning is on the right track, but there is still plenty of development to be done before Canning is a reliable plug-and-play fantasy option, a development that is unlikely to occur mid-season. For now, Canning is a matchups-based option in the league’s only six-man rotation, which limits his value to one-off streaming in most mixed leagues.

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins – 28% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 16 IP, 9.00 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 15.1% K-BB%

06/23 @ DET: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Friday was Maeda’s first start back from the injured list, and he sure made it count. Maeda mowed down the Tigers for eight strikeouts in five innings of one-run ball, picking up his first MLB win since August 14, 2021, in the process. The last time we saw Maeda he’d served up 10 earned runs in just three innings against the Yankees on April 26 before leaving with a strained triceps. While just one game, that start serves as a microcosm of Maeda’s last three MLB seasons, which have been marred by poor performance and injury. There was a time, not too long ago when Maeda was viewed as a top-20 fantasy starter. Was Friday the beginning of his comeback, or just a veteran beating up a soft opponent?

During the beginning of his career, Maeda would’ve never found himself a subject of a column like this. A good start was hardly surprising for the right-hander, who had a 3.75 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 19.9% K-BB% between 2016-2020, a stretch that culminated in a runner-up finish for the 2020 Cy Young Award. Things went downhill quickly for Maeda following that season. Since 2020 Maeda has managed a 5.02 ERA in just 127.1 innings, thanks in large part to him missing all of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery.

On the mound, Maeda works with a five-pitch repertoire, though he relies primarily on three pitches; his four-seamer, his slider, and his splitter. He does throw a sinker (8.1%) and a curveball (4.9%) occasionally, but they aren’t as big a part of his game. Maeda’s most used pitch — both in this start and on the season — is his slider, an 81 MPH offering that he uses 33.3% of the time. While the slider has worked wonders for Maeda in the past, the measurables on the pitch have been in decline over the past few years.

Since his apex in 2020, Maeda’s slider has lost two inches of break and four inches of drop, along with 1.5 MPH of velocity. Batters have sure noticed a difference, as opponents are hitting .324 with a .676 SLG and .426 wOBA off Maeda’s slider this season. Furthermore, Maeda’s 15.8% swinging strike rate and 37.3% chase rate are both several points below his career averages. It could be that his injuries are affecting his slider’s effectiveness, but he showed no signs of righting the ship in this outing. Maeda had no discernible change in slider movement this start, and he notched just two of his 11 whiffs with the slider despite using it 40% of the time. As it stands, this slider is a below-average pitch and a far cry from past form for Maeda.

What about the splitter? Sure, Maeda’s slider may not be the same, but the splitter is what made him famous in the first place. Batters are having a tougher time with this pitch; opponents are hitting .240 with a .280 SLG and .245 wOBA against Maeda’s splitter this season. Maeda hasn’t lost nearly as much movement or velocity with his splitter when compared to his slider or even his fastball. Maeda’s splitter is the only pitch that he’s still throwing in line with his career velocity marks.

These are encouraging signs, but there is one area of concern in the underlying numbers for Maeda’s splitter that cannot be overlooked. He has a pitifully low 9.5% swinging strike rate and a 28.1% chase rate with the pitch thus far, which is a tremendous downturn compared to past seasons. Maeda has an incredible 20.2% swinging strike rate and 45% chase rate with his splitter all time, and his current numbers aren’t even in the same universe. Could his command be off? Let’s compare his 2023 splitter heatmap (top) to his splitter heatmap prior to 2023 (bottom).

It seems like Maeda is living more in the zone this season, something backed up in the numbers as his 39% zone rate with his splitter is 10% higher than his career average. Perhaps Maeda is missing his spots, perhaps the decline of his other pitches is forcing him into the zone, or perhaps the increased zone rate is a sign of the splitter’s demise itself. Whatever the reason, this zone-heavy, low-strikeout version of his splitter is much less intoxicating than the previous iteration. Unlike with his slider, there is hope for a turnaround with this splitter, but we need to see more consistent results.

One thing to bear in mind is that Maeda has made just five starts this season, which is why I’ve refrained from diving into some of the bad luck he’s suffered. With a .371 BABIP and 56% strand rate, Maeda’s been woefully unfortunate in his limited action this season, and his current 3.74 FIP is right around his career average. While looking at these numbers, it might be tempting to frame Maeda as a victim of bad luck and injury. While those have certainly been challenges for him, sharp fantasy owners should hesitate before assigning all the blame to outside factors. Maeda appears to have suffered a legitimate decline in his stuff, and one good start against Detroit isn’t enough for us to ignore those issues.

Verdict:

With a heavy diet of sliders and splitters, this start was vintage Kenta Maeda, and a step in the right direction for his long-term recovery. Unfortunately, Maeda has seen a significant decline in his velocity and breaking ball movement compared to his peak, and the underlying numbers suggest that his days of dominance are behind him.

Perhaps Maeda isn’t fully healthy yet — this was his first start back from the IL after all — but let’s not forget that he’s 35 years old with extensive innings on his arm between MLB and Japan. I’d monitor his velocity and pitch movement on a start-by-start basis, and if he shows signs of improvement it could be time to pounce. Otherwise, he’s a risky, streamable veteran arm at this time.

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