🖥 CYBER WEEK - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE CYBER
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Alex Wood - Fantasy Ace or Extraordinary April?

A long time ago (2014), in a galaxy far far away (Atlanta), then 23-year-old Alex Wood demonstrated ace upside by striking out tons of hitters, and generating ground balls at an above-average pace while being bounced back-and-forth from the rotation to the bullpen. His stats that year in his starts only (156.1 Innings): 2.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 39 Walks, 151 Strikeouts.

2015, however, was a far different story. Alex Wood struggled to strike out batters at a clip anywhere near 2014, posting a 6.6 K/9 compared to 8.91 K/9 the year before; he was traded to the Dodgers and it seemed as if Alex Wood went from no-name prospect to budding ace all the way to one-hit-wonder all in the course of a year and a half.

Just when all seemed lost, 2016 rolls around, and things seem to look a little different. All of a sudden, the strikeouts were back. Wood was a changed man, and he accredited his regained success to a seemingly minor mechanical change, citing his stride had been a little exaggerated and that once he was able to correct it, he could get his timing and consistency back. It has been suggested that Wood was over-correcting for a bone-bruise he suffered on the last game he pitched as a Brave, and this threw off his consistency ever more. Consistency plays an important role in any pitcher's career, and this minor change seemed to help Alex Wood drastically in his return as a strikeout pitcher. His stats in 2016 (60.1 IP): 3.73 ERA (3.18 FIP), 1.26 WHIP, 20 BBs, 66 Ks. Alex Wood only pitched 60.1 innings last year because he hurt his elbow, and underwent an arthroscopic debridement of his pitching elbow, ending his season and plummeting any sort of hope of a revival.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Alex Wood: Has he finally emerged as an ace in Los Angeles

So here we are. It is mid-May 2017, and 26-year-old Alex Wood is all of a sudden one of the best pitchers on the planet. In his six starts, Alex Wood has a 27.0 K-BB%, which puts him at second in all of baseball, only behind Chris Sale. His 2.67 ERA in starts is backed up by a 1.53 FIP and a 1.98 xFIP. He's struck out a whopping 13.1 batters per nine innings, and his 62.8% GB% puts him third in all of baseball, alongside Kyle Freeland and Dallas Keuchel.

In fact, his ground balls have increased steadily every year since he bottomed out in 2015, particularly with his knuckle-curveball. In 2015, Alex Wood produced ground balls on 54.7% of balls in play with his curve. Last year he increased that rate to 58.3%, and in 2017, Alex has skyrocketed his ground ball rate on curves to a ridiculous 75%.

His changeup, however, might be the real story of Alex Wood's newfound success. He has ramped up the usage of his changeup, from 16.7% in 2015 up to 27.2% this year. This pitch has seen nearly a three mph velocity spike in 2017, along with his sinker, and it appears that the added velocity has done Alex Wood wonders. He has induced whiffs at 16.1% of his changeups, compared to 11.6% in 2015, and has induced grounders on 63.3% of BIPs on his change, compared to 52.3% in 2015. Furthermore, ISO against his changeup has gone from around .110 in 2015 down to around .040 this year.

With three legitimate pitches: Sinker, Knuckle-Curve, and Changeup, Alex Wood seems to have elevated his game in two of the most important dimensions for a pitcher: strikeouts and weak contact. Alex Wood's 22.1% Hard-hit% is the second lowest in the MLB, behind only Dallas Keuchel, and his 33.1% K% sits at second in baseball behind only Chris Sale. It seems that in a year plagued by injury to front-line starting pitchers, Alex Wood has evolved into some sort of mutant-hybrid with the strikeout abilities of Chris Sale and the ground-ball and weak-contact abilities of Dallas Keuchel.

So what is he doing differently?  As mentioned earlier, Alex Wood has seen nearly a three mph spike in velocity across the board since 2015. Likely a leading factor in his newfound velocity bump is his release point. Alex Wood has an incredibly funky delivery, and as a result, his release point has gone through changes year-to-year. If anyone hasn't seem him pitch, here is an example of his wacky and deceptive delivery.

There is quite obviously a lot going on in his delivery, and therefore one shouldn't be surprised to hear how much Alex Wood has tinkered with his release point. Much akin to James Paxton last year, Alex Wood has found a more natural arm slot, in this case by increasing his vertical release point substantially, resulting in a noticeable spike in velocity and effectiveness.

Not everything looks perfect for Wood, unfortunately. The Dodgers have about nine usable starting pitchers, and although they're doing a decent job of coincidentally having one of them get "injured" when he is struggling or another shows signs of health, Alex Wood's spot in the rotation is not guaranteed. At barely over 5 IP per start, Wood needs to do a better job of finishing hitters early in the count, though the Dodgers have admittedly been lifting him from games before he breaks even 90 pitches. The good news is, if Wood continues to pitch the way he has to date, the Dodgers would be stupid to take him out of the rotation, and as the season goes on, Wood will likely be handled with less care, in terms of a limited pitch count. Conclusively, Alex Wood has been one of the best starting pitchers on the planet thus far in 2017.

He's somehow still not universally owned, and if you are in one of the leagues that still has him on the waiver wire, please do not hesitate to pick him up. In a year of such horrendous pitching, a guy like Wood could be an absolute game-changer.

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Khris Middleton

Will Not Play Tuesday
Kyshawn George

Is Questionable Against the 76ers
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Trey Murphy III

Will Return Tuesday Night
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
Yves Missi

Uncertain to Play Tuesday Against the Timberwolves
Zion Williamson

Questionable Against Minnesota
Neemias Queta

Set to Return on Tuesday
Derrick White

Will Play Tuesday Against New York
Quentin Grimes

Downgraded to Questionable on Tuesday
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Jake Walman

Still Out Tuesday
Mason Appleton

Misses Tuesday's Contest
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Good to Go Tuesday
Conor Garland

Out on Tuesday
Petr Mrazek

Considered Day-to-Day
Tyson Foerster

Hurt in Monday's Loss
Trey Murphy III

May Skip Another Game Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Back in Pelicans Lineup Tuesday
Draymond Green

Probable for Tuesday Night
Jimmy Butler III

Questionable to Play Tuesday
Derrick White

Likely Available Tuesday
Paul George

Listed as Questionable for Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Won't Play Against Wizards
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Brandon Miller

Unavailable on Monday
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Duncan Robinson

Absent Against Atlanta
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Jalen Duren

Back in the Lineup on Monday Evening
Noah Clowney

Cleared to Play Versus Charlotte
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Active On Monday
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Back in Action on Monday
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact, Decision on Week 14 Status Delayed
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
Sauce Gardner

Officially Week-to-Week with Strained Calf
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
VEG

Carter Hart Expected to Make Golden Knights Debut Tuesday
Pyotr Kochetkov

Remains Without Timeline For Return
Boone Jenner

Close to Returning
Lian Bichsel

Exits With Injury Sunday
Petr Mrazek

Injured in Sunday's Loss
Adam Fox

Placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP