X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Sophomore Slump - Breakout Rookies Who Will Underperform in Year Two

2018 was an exceptionally strong year for rookies, especially at the running back position, where players like Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette put up strong numbers. There's been some talk in the fantasy football Twittersphere that some of those players could decline in their second years, and I get that. Kamara and Hunt have to contend with Mark Ingram (minus the four games that Ingram will miss due to suspension) and Spencer Ware taking away snaps, while Fournette has injury concerns.

Again, I get those concerns, but there's also a lot to like about those guys and they still have fairly high ceilings. Instead, I want to focus on three wide receivers who aren't in great situations and don't have those same high ceilings, guys who are probably going to go off the board a lot earlier than they should.

Let's look at why Juju Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, and Keelan Cole are maybe not the right guys for you to draft at their current ADP.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Second-Year Players Due to Slump

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)

I KNOW. I feel bad suggesting that Smith-Schuster might have a disappointing 2018 season, but I have reasons. RotoBaller's Addison Hayes published this piece on why dynasty owners should sell high on JuJu which covers a lot of the reasons I had for not betting on Smith-Schuster in 2018. Here's a quick summary of the points Hayes made that I agree with:

  • Inflated numbers due to an increase in playing time with Antonio Brown out.
  • Historical trends of other rookies who had Smith-Schuster's level of production, including Eddie Royal and Dwayne Bowe.
  • The history of Ben Roethlisberger not being able to sustain two quality fantasy wide receivers in one season.

Those are good reasons! Here's another: After moving on from Martavis Bryant, the Smith-Schuster era as the clear number two receiver in Pittsburgh lasted a very short amount of time as the team selected James Washington at the end of the second round.

There's also the idea of regression. PlayerProfiler has Smith-Schuster with the highest production premium in the league last year. Football Outsiders has him sixth in DYAR and first in DVOA. He had the most yards per target in 2017 and ranked third in contested catch rate. Are these numbers sustainable for a player who won't be his team's top target? He's a good, young receiver, but the addition of Washington, whose college career suggests that he can be a top receiving option at the next level, muddies things up. Notably, we get the issue of who will play where. Will Smith-Schuster, who was useful in the slot last season, stay there? Will the Steelers opt to get the rookie involved and let Smith-Schuster fight on the outside? We'll see, but those concerns make me wary of taking Smith-Schuster.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Kupp is a safe pick in 2018, but I'm not sure that his ultimate ceiling is much higher than his rookie year performance, when he finished as the WR25 in PPR. His 2017 production is almost an illusion in a sense: Robert Woods missed three games during the 2017 season. Both of Kupp's 100 yard games came during that three game stretch. The other game--a 68 yard game against the Cardinals--was his fourth-highest yardage total of the season. It's difficult to rely on Kupp as a fantasy option if his best games rely on a teammate to be injured. It's also difficult when you factor in the addition of Brandin Cooks. I was all in on Kupp after Sammy Watkins left for Kansas City, but Cooks will see a ton of targets in this offense. Todd Gurley will see a lot of usage as well, and in the Seattle game and the Tennessee game, when Gurley made his case for the fantasy MVP and Woods was back, Kupp had nine total targets. His usage went down as the Rams available weapons increased.

There's also the question of what we do with Jared Goff, who looked very bad as a rookie and very good in his second season? If we project him to either maintain his current level of play or continue to improve, great! But what if Goff regresses in his third year back closer to what he did as a rookie? His numbers rose so dramatically across the board that it's impossible to know for sure how sustainable they are

Now, there are reasons to trust Kupp. This decade, six rookie wide receivers have a catch percentage of at least 65 and at least 90 targets. They are: Kupp, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Matthews, and Michael Thomas. That's a good group (minus Matthews), but Allen, Beckham, and Thomas all had over 1000 yards and significantly more targets. Matthews is, sadly, the best comparison on that list for Kupp's rookie season.

Keelan Cole (WR, JAX)

While the previous two players still have some good upside going into next season, I hate the position that Keelan Cole is in for the Jaguars. Cole was a great story last year, an undrafted free agent who made the Jaguars roster and ended up finishing as the second best fantasy numbers of any Jaguars wide receiver. Cole was targeted 83 times and turned those targets into 42 catch, 748 yards, and three touchdown campaign. Cole did this despite having just 47 yards on six receptions in Jacksonville's first six games. His campaign was buoyed by two strong games near the end of the year: seven catches for 186 and a score against Houston and six catches for 108 against the 49ers, but his disappearance in the playoffs, when he was targeted just six times in three games. Jacksonville made the bet that that version of Cole was more likely to show up in 2018 than the version that existed at the end of the regular season, and the team went out and signed Donte Moncrief and drafted D.J. Chark. The Moncrief addition wasn't a killer since the team let Allen Hurns go, but with Chark in the fold things get murkier. Cole could end up spending all his time in the slot and producing solid numbers, but the Jaguars wide receiver is one that I'm steering very far away from in most formats.

Also, look, I own Blake Bortles in some leagues, but I'm not sure he can sustain multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers. I know he did it in 2015 with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but that was also a team that played from behind a lot and didn't have a great running game. With one of the league's top defenses, Blake Bortles doesn't get the advantage of garbage time to pad his fantasy stats and, by extension, his receiver's fantasy stats.

 

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF