RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Fortinet. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! After a couple of weeks away from HFTC, it is great to be back with you guys for the Fortinet Championship, the opening event of the PGA Tour's Swing Season.
With the 2020-21 season now in the books we head to beautiful Napa Valley for the Fortinet. This event goes through sponsors like Kardashians through husbands, but the former Safeway and Frys.com event will once again kick off fall golf and be held at the Silverado Resort & Spa.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2021 Fortinet Championship
It wasn't much of a "fall break", as Patrick Cantlay captured the FedEx Cup title just over a week ago, but the PGA Tour has to keep that sponsorship money rolling in, so here we are kicking off the 2021-22 season in Napa Valley with the newly-named Fortinet Championship. Don't let the name change throw you off, this tournament has been held at the Silverado Resort & Spa since 2015 and golfers will once again tee it up on the Johnny Miller-owned property this year.
Although the FedEx Cup Playoffs are now nearly another year away, players have the opportunity to start banking valuable points this week. The Swing Season also offers fans our first glimpse at the new crop of talent that's graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour. In addition to the new blood, we often see a familiar group of PGA Tour veterans grinding away in these fall events.
While fall golf often produces much weaker fields than we see in the heart of the schedule, the Fortinet has managed to draw a couple of headliners this week, with three of the four current major champion title holders slated to tee it up in Napa Valley. Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, and Phil Mickelson will all be in attendance. They'll be joined by last season's rookie sensation Will Zalatoris, who is finally an official PGA Tour member, and some KFT graduates like Greyson Sigg, Brandon Wu, and Nick Hardy that will look to emulate Willie Z's success and make a splash in the Swing Season. All in all, an interesting field that could be called stronger-than-usual.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Silverado Resort & Spa North
Par 72 - 7,166 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Architect: Robert Trent Jones Jr. with Johnny Miller redesign in 2011
This course is somewhat tough to peg, as it is very short for a Par 72 at just over 7,100 yards, but isn't really a true "birdiefest", as Stewart Cink's 21-under-par winning score last season was the first time a champion at Silverado crossed the 20-under-par threshold. While recent champions - as well as players that have found success in this event - are a fairly diverse and eclectic bunch, there is a pretty common thread of "long-off-the-tee-with-good-ballstriking" types finding success here. Big surprise, right? Of course, successful players will also need to have a great putting week on these sloped Silverado greens.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Fortinet Winners
- Stewart Cink (-21)
- Cameron Champ (-17)
- Kevin Tway (-14)
- Brendan Steele (-15)
- Brendan Steele (-18)
The Horse
Jon Rahm
Notable Course History: T15 (2017)
DraftKings Price: $12,100 FanDuel Price: $
Yes, this is a course history article and yes, Rahm's T15 in his lone Fortinet start doesn't really qualify him for "Horse" status. However, I'm also a realist, and the Spaniard stands head and shoulders above this field in almost every way. Rahm notched an amazing 15 top-10s in just 22 starts last season and, despite the fact that he came up short to Patrick Cantlay in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, it is tough to make the argument that the ASU alum isn't the best player in the world at the moment.
From a course fit standpoint, Rahm's game translates to every layout, but Silverado should be an especially-nice fit, as many former winners of this event have been long off the tee. Rahm grades out 10th in this Fortinet field in Driving Distance over the last 50 rounds. He's not only long with the driver, but also effective, as he also stands sixth in the field in Good Drives Gained over the same timeframe.
Big Jon ranks first in this field in SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, & OTT, as well as DK Points scored over the last 50 rounds. Simply put, he's a prohibitive favorite in this event in his current form.
The Ponies
Harold Varner III
Notable Course History: T29 ('20), T17 ('19), T14 ('18), T15 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $9,100 FanDuel Price: $
Welcome to the Swing Season, the time of year when Harold Varner III is priced at $9.1k. Yes, the pricing is gross, but it's simply a fact of life for fall events and something we must adjust to. Obviously this is more than we're usually paying for Varner, though if we ignore the price tag he's a tremendous play on merit. The East Carolina alum has been tremendous in this event over the last five years, making the cut in all five Fortinet starts, with three top-20 results. He grades out fourth in this week's field in SG: Total for this event. In addition to the elite course history, Varner comes into town off closing the regular season out in hot fashion. HV3 has posted top-15 results in three of his last four starts with two of those coming against elite competition in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The price tag is scary, but this is a really nice combination of course history and recent form.
Maverick McNealy
Notable Course History: MC ('20), T52 ('19), T63 ('18), T52 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $8,600 FanDuel Price: $
The course history doesn't blow us away here, but I like the fact that Mav McNealy is at least very familiar with this Silverado layout. He's made the Fortinet cut in three of his four career appearances, never cracking the top-50. However, it's fair to consider McNealy a different player now than he was in the past, as the Stanford alum had a truly breakout season. He closed out the Tour season with eight consecutive made cuts, with five top-25s among those. Over the last 24 rounds McNealy grades out seventh in this field in SG: OTT and fourth in Bogeys Avoided. A former collegiate star that's finally found his footing at the professional level, I fully expect him to blow his previous Fortinet results out of the water this week.
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Chez Reavie
Notable Course History: T3 ('20), T33 ('19), T33 ('18), T13 ('17), T22 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $8,500 FanDuel Price: $
Chez Reavie certainly doesn't fit our "long off the tee" narrative. However, despite the lack of length, he his very good off the tee. Reavie ranks first in the field in Good Drives Gained over the last 24 rounds, while also grading out second in Fairways Gained. That accuracy has helped him to find loads of success at Silverado. He's never missed a cut in five career starts with a pair of top-25s in addition to a T3 in last year's edition. The short knocker's game doesn't translate to every layout on the modern PGA Tour and he suffered through a slump in the early portion of the summer. Reavie did battle back to play better golf over the latter half of the season and has gained strokes T2G, OTT, and Approach on average over his last five tournaments.
Brendan Steele
Notable Course History: T29 ('20), T60 ('19), T53 ('18), Win ('17 &'16)
DraftKings Price: $7,400 FanDuel Price: $
Unlike the other players in this week's write-up, Brendan Steele doesn't bring trending form to the Fortinet. He struggled mightily down the season's stretch run, making just one cut over his last four starts. Steele last teed it up in mid-August at the Northern Trust, so let's hope that he's had time to figure some things out and get back on track. His track record at Silverado indicates this is a good spot, as the Californian won this event back-to-back in 2016-17. When things are clicking the streaky Steele is one of the best ball strikers on the Tour. This amounts to a pure course history play and bet that he'll find a level of comfort in the friendly confines of Napa Valley.
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