Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Something or Nothing?

September 14, 2021

Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Baker Mayfield, Eli Mitchell, Justin Jefferson, and more.

Week 1 of the NFL season is now in the books and while we saw many familiar names register top-fantasy performances there were a few surprises. The quarterback position was fairly predictable for the most part with Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Dak Prescott all registering top-five performances. Jameis Winston surprised us all throwing for five touchdowns with a depleted receiving corps and perhaps the biggest surprise of them all was Aaron Rodgers's putrid showing, throwing for just 133 yards and two interceptions. Rob Gronkowski headlined the tight end position in Week 1, reeling in two touchdowns against Dallas. T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, and Dallas Goedert performed well as expected, while Robert Tonyan may have been the biggest disappointment, catching just two passes for eight scoreless yards.

At wide receiver, the main surprises were the disappointing performances by Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Justin Jefferson. Corey Davis played well as the No. 1 receiver for the Jets and Sterling Shepard surprisingly finished as WR8 after being heavily targeted in a game the Giants trailed for most of the way. Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin shined for the Buccaneers leaving Mike Evans as the odd man out, while both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb received heavy volume in the Cowboys' passing game.

The Detroit Lions had two running backs finish inside the top-five of fantasy scoring in Week 1 with both Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift receiving at least 17 touches. The Lions' offense will go through the running game in 2021 and until further notice, it looks like both Williams and Swift will be viable starters at the position. As expected Christian McCaffrey finished as the No. 1 running back on the week but there were a few surprises inside the top-25 at the position. Those surprises include Eli Mitchell who was forced into action for the 49ers because of injury and Mark Ingram with his 26 carries and a touchdown as the Texans dismantled the Jaguars in shocking fashion.

Daniel Jones, N.Y. Giants

Week 1 Stats: 22-of-37 passing, 267 yards, 1 TD, 6 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD

The Giants' offense was absolutely horrid in Week 1 and struggled to move the ball for much of the day. Daniel Jones, however, was able to cash in on some garbage-time production to finish as QB15 on the week. Jones scored a rushing touchdown on the Giants' final play from scrimmage and absent that, he would have finished as QB24.

Bottom Line: Jones and the Giants face the stingy Washington defense on Thursday night in Week 2 and you should avoid playing him at all costs. If Jones is still on your waiver wire, you should leave him there unless you're desperate or in a very deep league.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Week 1 Stats: 21-of-28 passing, 321 yards, 0 TD, 1 carry, 7 yards

Baker Mayfield was extremely accurate with the football on Sunday and exhibited great command of the Browns' offense. The Browns jumped out to an early lead on the Chiefs which allowed their offense to run the ball with Mayfield acting as the point guard, distributing the ball to the open receivers with ease. The Browns want to run the ball first and foremost but Mayfield demonstrated he can put up efficient passing stats even with a near 50-50 split between called run and pass plays.

Bottom Line: Mayfield failed to throw for a touchdown, resulting in him finishing as QB27. Even without Odell Beckham Jr. the Browns were able to scheme throws for Mayfield to have success and he won't go scoreless every week. If somebody grows impatient and cuts him in your league, he's worth a roster spot as a decent backup QB.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 Stats: 12 targets, 9 catches, 189 yards, 1 TD

Deebo Samuel is a perfect fit for the 49ers' offense and he demonstrated why on Sunday, taking a 79-yard pass to the house for a score. While Samuel is a legitimate WR2 on a weekly basis, he put up these numbers in Week 1 largely because Brandon Aiyuk was seemingly in the doghouse and only played 47% of the 49ers' offensive snaps.

Bottom Line: Continue to roll Deebo Samuel out there in your lineups each week, but if you don't have him on your roster, don't get too crazy offering the world for him in trades, because he will come back down to earth a little after Aiyuk starts to earn more playing time.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 Stats: 5 targets, 5 catches, 70 yards, 2 TD

Here we go, Christian Kirk had yet another explosive game for the Cardinals. Now, what do we do? Kirk played 57% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps which was third-most on the team in Week 1 behind DeAndre Hopkins (88%) and A.J. Green (80%) but ahead of Rondale Moore (29%). Kirk had five targets, compared to eight for DeAndre Hopkins, six for A.J. Green, and five for Rondale Moore.

Bottom Line: There is one wide receiver in Arizona that will see a heavy target-share on a consistent basis and that's DeAndre Hopkins. The other receivers, including Christian Kirk, will likely get targeted based on their individual matchup any given week. Simply put, Kirk is an explosive wide receiver, but his production will be week-to-week. He's rostered in just 14% of Yahoo leagues and he's worth a roster spot in deeper formats given the up-tempo style of play in Arizona.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Week 1 Stats: 9 targets, 5 catches, 71 yards

Justin Jefferson nearly scored in Week 1 on a play that was reviewed for a very long time, eventually giving way to Dalvin Cook who punched the ball in from one yard out. If Jefferson was credited with the score, he would have finished with 18.1 points in a PPR, which would have been good for WR23 instead of WR46. Adam Thielen scored twice and really came through, especially running after the catch. While Thielen will continue to get it done all year, Jefferson is clearly the No. 1 receiving option in the Vikings offense.

Bottom Line: If anybody in your league is panicking about Jefferson's underwhelming performance in Week 1, try to trade for him. Jefferson looked great this week but he had a pass swatted away by Chidobe Awuzie, he had one bad drop, and he should have scored, all of which contributed to his underwhelming stat-line.

Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 43 yards, 2 TD

Zach Pascal is rostered in just 1% of Yahoo leagues, yet he played on 91% of the Colts' offensive snaps which is more than the 61% that Parris Campbell played. Pascal also led all Colts wide receivers with five targets, but he didn't lead the team in that category as Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor were each targeted more than him. In 2020, Pascal had five catches for 79 yards and two scores against Houston in Week 15 and a 64-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Steelers the following week. Pascal never had more than five catches in any game last year and never eclipsed the 80-yard mark.

Bottom Line: As discussed above, Zach Pascal will do this from time to time, he will come out of nowhere and have a decent game leaving everybody scratching their heads. Do yourself a favor and let somebody else grab Pascal off the waiver wire unless you're extremely desperate for a wide receiver or playing in a very deep league.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Week 1 Stats: 11 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 3 catches, 17 yards

Melvin Gordon busted a long run for a 70-yard touchdown. Absent that big run, Gordon would have registered just 7.8 fantasy points in a PPR. Gordon touched the ball a total of 14 times compared to 15 touches for Javonte Williams. Williams and Gordon also split snaps evenly, each logging 33 offensive plays. While Gordon and Williams split playing time and the workload completely down the middle in Week 1, both backs were bottled up for the most part by the Giants stingy defense aside from Gordon's long run.

Bottom Line:  The bottom line is this, Gordon has a limited shelf life in Denver while Williams is the future. This will be Williams' job sooner rather than later. If you have Gordon on your team, you should look to trade him now while his value is hot. Given the shared workload, there will be a small window to trade for Williams and that window is open at the moment, but it won't be open for long.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Week 1 Stats: 19 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD

Trey Sermon was a surprise scratch in Week 1 which left Eli Mitchell as the No. 2 running back behind Raheem Mostert. Mostert went down with a knee injury early in the game, giving way to Mitchell carrying the load for the remainder of the day. Mitchell played 35 snaps in Week 1 compared to just 16 snaps for JaMycal Hasty. Mitchell did look good out there on Sunday, especially on his 38-yard touchdown run.

Bottom Line: Before you run out and spend 80% of your free agent budget on Eli Mitchell, let's wait to see if Sermon will be elevated to the active roster for Week 2. This situation seems a little sticky because we just don't know how the coaching staff feels about Sermon, who they just used a second-round pick on in the 2021 draft. If we don't hear any news on Sermon before waiver claims are due, Mitchell is the guy to go after aggressively on the waiver wire this week if you're desperate for a running back. Trey Sermon wasn't declared inactive until 11:30 am on Sunday which gave fantasy managers very little time to pick up Mitchell as Mostert's handcuff, so he's still available in 91% of Yahoo leagues.

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Week 1 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 21 yards, 2 TD

Juwan Johnson came up huge in the Saints Week 1 victory over the Packers, snagging two touchdowns. Johnson is very athletic for a tight end and looked great while running routes, but it's hard to get over the fact that he only played on 19% of the Saints' offensive snaps. Adam Trautman was the clear No. 1 tight end for the Saints on Sunday, playing 82% of the offensive snaps.

Bottom Line: Johnson is a gifted athlete but it's clear the Saints only want him on the field in clear passing situations. Johnson is rostered in just 10% of Yahoo leagues and you should only pursue him on waivers if you're desperate for a tight end.

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