RADIO
Miami Dolphins D/ST is a potential 2021 fantasy football target and ADP draft value. Target the unit as an undervalued D/ST in fantasy football drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~185 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~204
Even though getting 10+ points per game from your defense is beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a D/ST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my D/ST's on teams with strong defensive talent as well as their early-season schedules.
I've created a D/ST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play.
ANALYSIS:
The Dolphins finished as the fourth-ranked defense last year by FantasyPros rankings and eighth-ranked by my formula, but I don't see them in the top-10 anywhere. I know that some people view their performance as flukey because they were so turnover-dependent, but I don't think that's fair to Brian Flores and company. Flores was a great defensive coordinator who has clearly brought a turnover-happy scheme to Miami. Considering the talent he still has on that side of the ball, why should we assume they won't be similarly effective in inducing turnovers? They might not finish first overall in drives ending in a turnover as they did in 2020, but they don't need to in order to be an impactful defense.
I am expecting bigger jumps from young, talented players like Christian Watkins and Raekwon Davis, which will help a talented secondary led by Xavien Howard, Eric Rowe, and Byron Jones. The Dolphins also signed Jason McCourty to start and guide first-round draft pick Jevon Holland, which should round out a ball-hawking group that can earn you fantasy points in a hurry. The true test for the Dolphins will be a weak linebacking corps, but I trust this coaching staff and think they have this team moving clearly in the right direction, which is scary to me as a Bills fan.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Patriots, vs. Bills, @Raiders, vs. Colts
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