NFL Preseason and Training Camp Risers

August 31, 2021

Casey Kamholz reviews the biggest risers throughout the 2021 NFL preseason and training camp period for fantasy football purposes.

Training camp presents fantasy football drafters with an overwhelming amount of praise at times. By now you've likely heard that everyone is in the best shape of their life, every single rookie is expected to play a big role, and everyone is shaping up to be a steal in drafts.

Sifting through all of the information and analyzing the validity behind training camp risers can give you a big edge on draft day.

In this article, we'll dive into why several players are on the rise at each position as we approach Week 1 while exploring the merit behind their upward trajectory.

Quarterbacks

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

Because he fits the mold of a true 'Konami Code' (dual-threat) fantasy QB, Lance started to get hyped up around the industry from the moment the 49ers traded up to draft him third overall in this year's NFL draft. That hype has only intensified as we draw closer to Week 1, and Lance is now being drafted as the QB12 overall in most high-stakes leagues thanks to his dual-threat upside. Save for Lamar Jackson, Lance is as legitimate a rushing threat as you'll find at the QB position — he rushed for a whopping 1100 yards and 14 TDs in his last full collegiate season.

If you're questioning Lance's true value amidst all of the hype, consider that, among relevant 2020 QB's, Cam Newton finished as the QB15 overall in PPG (17.4) despite only throwing for 2657 yards with an 8:10 TD to INT ratio. Cam was objectively awful as a passer in 2020, and yet he was only 0.5 PPG away from being a QB1. Lance is not only much more explosive on the ground than Newton is at this stage in his career, but he's also playing in a Kyle Shanahan system that features pace and elite weapons that will help elevate him in the passing game, whereas Cam Newton played in a slow-paced system with absolutely zero impact weapons in 2020.

The Cam Newton comparison is here to show just how far rushing equity can bring quarterbacks even when they are atrocious in the passing game, and Lance has a lot more potential than Newton ever did in 2020 due to an elite supporting cast. Lance will put up big numbers on the ground, which is more valuable than anything else at the QB position in fantasy football, but it's his potential to produce solid passing numbers in addition to the rushing that gives him a massive ceiling. A 2019 Lamar Jacksonesque season isn't entirely out of the question here, but Lance just needs to finish as a top 10 QB to make drafters happy at his current ADP. Lance could be the ultimate cheat code, and he deserves all of the hype.

Trey Lance rushing is going to be fun 🍿 pic.twitter.com/g46t34BL3m

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 29, 2021

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Justin Fields' rise is reminiscent of Trey Lance's given that both are rising for the same reason — they're both athletic dual-threat quarterbacks who project to start early on in 2021. Fields went from being a very late-round flier to now being drafted as the QB15 overall in high stakes formats. The price is still fairly reasonable, but is Fields really a better pick than Matt Ryan right now? It's complicated.

Fields is a very intriguing prospect, but he never rushed for more than 484 yards in any college season, so we're not talking about an elite rushing floor here by any means. Additionally, Fields' supporting cast and coaching staff are far from ideal. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney can help Fields thrive, but there aren't any other real difference-makers around him, and the offensive line could be downright terrible. It's also worth noting that Matt Nagy hasn't had much success as a play-caller since he took over as the Bears head coach, though he hasn't had a quarterback as talented as Fields during his tenure.

Fields was a legitimately dynamic passer at Ohio State, however, so he could hit the ground running in that area right away, even if it is a lot to ask for from a rookie quarterback. The market isn't betting on Fields outscoring Matt Ryan with his arm though, it's the rushing production that will determine whether or not the Fields hype was warranted when we look back on this season. At this stage, the extent of Fields' rushing equity is hard to project and his supporting cast is suspect, but it's also understandable that drafters want to target his very real upside over pocket statue quarterbacks in drafts.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

For whatever reason, it took two superb preseason performances for the fantasy community to start buzzing about Wilson's potential in his rookie season. Perhaps part of the reason is that reports out of training camp were decidedly negative prior to the preseason, but the game tape is what counts the most, and the market is catching on. Wilson is a very mobile quarterback, but he's never produced big rushing numbers. Instead, Wilson's upside comes from his willingness to extend plays and take shots down the field, and those skills are the reason why the Jets selected him second overall in the draft. Wilson's stock has been on the rise since he impressed in preseason action, but he's still not being drafted in many non-Superflex leagues.

Plenty of people are still down on the Jets as a landing spot for the young quarterback, but there are some definite positives that Wilson has going for him in his rookie year. First, the Jets are going to be a bad team, which means that Wilson will have plenty of opportunities to air the ball out. Second, the Jets invested heavily in upgrading their offensive line over the offseason, setting Wilson up for success in clean pockets. And, lastly, Wilson has solid pass catchers to target in Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, and maybe even Denzel Mims and Tyler Kroft, the latter of whom Wilson has shown an affinity for targeting in preseason action.

Wilson is going to make mistakes, the Jets offense won't score a ton of points, and there isn't huge rushing upside, but that doesn't mean that Wilson won't outperform his QB24 ADP. After the fantasy community collectively wrote him off early in camp, Wilson has earned the recent rise with his impressive play in the preseason, and he might just be one of the most undervalued fantasy quarterbacks available in 2021, especially in Superflex formats.

Running Backs

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson's stock was fairly flat all offseason long before Travis Etienne Jr. went down with a foot injury that is expected to sideline him for the entire 2021 season. Now, the fantasy industry is scrambling to move Robinson ever higher up in the rankings. The justification for the hype here is simple — Robinson finished as the RB7 in 2020 as the unquestioned lead back, and he projects to have a fairly similar role in 2021. The second-year UDFA success story is now being drafted in the third round in some high-stakes formats, and it's fair to wonder if that's an overreaction.

It's easy to make the simple argument I mentioned above about Robinson being locked into a featured back role that he dominated in last year, but it's never that simple. Volume, play-calling, and utilization can change rapidly when a new coaching regime takes over as the Urban Meyer-led contingent has in Jacksonville. Meyer somewhat inexplicably brought in his old friend from Ohio State, Carlos Hyde, to compete for backfield touches in 2021, and if the preseason is any indication... Hyde will be very involved. A lot of things had to go right for Robinson to rack up 289 touches last season, and one of those was the fact that there was no competent rusher behind him. Carlos Hyde may not be particularly talented at this stage of his career, but he's an established NFL running back.

Despite the presence of Hyde and the new coaching staff, Robinson's rise post-Travis Etienne injury is warranted. Robinson isn't being drafted like he's going to replicate the RB7 finish from 2020, instead, he's being drafted in the RB16-20 range. That price in drafts means that Robinson is likely being drafted close to his floor with some upside to boot. If Robinson ends up seeing around 250 touches (a likely scenario if he stays healthy) he should be a solid value in drafts, but there's also a small chance that he nears 300 touches as he did in 2020, which could make him a league winner for a second straight season. Robinson will be involved in all facets of the offense and he's the unquestioned lead back — you can't ask for much more than from a fantasy running back in today's game.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams was in the conversation for best running back available in the 2021 NFL draft after he shredded opposing defenses at the University of North Carolina. The Broncos ended up trading up to make him the draft's third RB taken at 35th overall, which was a sign that they coveted him all along. Williams has been steadily rising after a strong camp and preseason that has seen him take most of the first-team reps with Melvin Gordon injured, and it's easy to understand why.

Williams fits the bill as a very talented dual-threat RB in a perceived committee with a less explosive veteran. We've seen backs with similar profiles such as Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Miles Sanders provide value relative to their ADPs in the last couple of years. The common theme with these types of backs is that they often gain steam with each passing week, which is ideal in leagues that feature traditional playoff scheduling. The Broncos feature a solid offensive line and they project to run the ball plenty in 2021, so even if Williams does share an annoyingly large amount of the work with Melvin Gordon early on, he has a path to production.

Despite the fact that Williams has been a steady riser, the hype around him hasn't resulted in a ludicrously high ADP, as he's currently being drafted in the fifth round as the RB22 in high-stakes leagues. Ironically, among RBs who played in 10 or more games in 2020, Melvin Gordon finished as exactly the RB22 in PPG (13.2). Williams has plenty of avenues to smashing that number, and, considering his draft capital, the floor is high enough that you're not taking on a ton of risk — Williams is one of the biggest running back risers for a reason, and he fits into anchor RB and zero RB roster builds like a glove.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris' rise started early in training camp, but it was more of a slow burn than a meteoric rise. That's changed recently, however, as drafters are realizing that the Steelers plan to utilize Najee Harris a la Le'Veon Bell in a true bell-cow role after he dominated preseason touches. Harris was drafted to be the bell cow when the Steelers used premium draft capital at No. 25 overall to select him. Couple that with Mike Tomlin's rhetoric and history of leaning on one guy and you could have the recipe for 300 touches.

Harris' dominance at Alabama (1891 total yards and 30 TDs in 2020) was no accident — he can do it all at 6-foot-1 232 pounds. Harris is surprisingly fast and agile for his size and he has great hands, so he can dominate up the gut and in space. The potential for 300 touches is alluring, but there are two legitimate questions around Harris, whose ADP has risen from the late second round to the early second round in recent weeks. The two knocks on Harris are that he's an unproven rookie, and he'll be running behind an offensive line that projects to be poor on paper.

The knocks on Harris are legitimate, but he's rising for a reason. Harris looks like a potentially elite talent with 300+ touch upside, and poor offensive lines haven't stopped bell-cow backs from dominating fantasy leagues in the past. Some are now drafting Harris ahead of Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley however, and I can't get on board with that even if I do buy that Harris is a worthy riser. The bottom line is that Harris has earned the right to be in the conversation early in the second round of drafts, and his rise is backed up by talent and volume-based upside in 2021.

PIT starters have played 51 snaps so far this preseason.

Total RB snaps:
Najee Harris 45
Anthony McFarland 6
Everyone else 0

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 23, 2021

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb may very well be 2021's biggest fantasy football riser. Lamb has been talked about as a no-brainer breakout receiver since the onset of training camp, and the talk is only intensifying as we draw closer to Week 1. Training camp highlights and coach speak have been part of CeeDee's rise, but there's also the Cowboys' fast-paced, gunslinging offense, and the second-year wide receiver breakout narrative propping him up.

Unfortunately, Lamb only played in five games with Dak Prescott last season prior to the star QB's injury, but in those games, Lamb averaged 17.1 PPR PPG, which would've tied him with Justin Jefferson for the WR9 mark in 2020. When you consider what we saw last year, it makes sense that Lamb is being drafted as the WR10-12 in high-stakes leagues. There could be more in store for Lamb in 2021 however, as he was used almost exclusively in the slot in 2020. Most reports coming out of camp say that the Cowboys are treating Lamb like the WR1 and moving him around the formation, which would be a big plus. If Lamb can improve on a 9.1-yard aDOT and rack up more catches on deep routes we could see a massive ceiling.

Lamb's monstrous rise is founded in logic, even if the hype is seemingly getting out of control. Lamb excelled in year one, gets his star QB back in year two, is playing in perhaps the most fantasy-friendly offense in the NFL, and his ADP is actually discounted on a PPG basis relative to last season. Lamb's rise into the late second/early third-round range is just the market being efficient, and there's no doubt that he's a worthwhile target in that range.

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints

Callaway's rise has been steady, as the young wideout has been dominant in training camp and in the preseason, but the hype shifted into another gear after Callaway dominated the Jaguars for five catches, 104 yards, and two scores in Week 2 of the preseason while working as Jameis Winston's No. 1 target. Callaway has been going in the late 9th round in high-stakes formats since that performance, and he's now being drafted in the same range as names like Curtis Samuel and Marvin Jones Jr. — is the market overreacting?

Callaway has shown flashes of real talent and he has little target competition until Michael Thomas returns, so with Jameis Winston under center, his upside justifies the 9th/10th round selection. If he continues to perform, Callaway should still be a major factor even after the Thomas return due to the lack of other established receivers on the Saints roster. While Winston appears to have won the race against Taysom Hill, the Saints could choose to rotate the two QB's often. If Winston isn't under center 80-90 percent of the time Callaway would be hard-pressed to provide value now that his ADP has risen into the single-digit rounds.

Every draft pick is a gamble, but Callaway is especially risky considering the context around him. With that being said, his upside is tremendous with Winston taking the reigns. There is a world where performances like the one Callaway had against the Jaguars in the preseason become commonplace in 2021. There is also a world where Callaway proves to be only a mediocre talent when he's facing off with No. 1 corners come Week 1. Callaway has performed all offseason long, so his rise is understandable, there's just plenty of risk involved that only intensifies as he flies up draft boards.

Through the first 2 preseason games, @CallawayMarquez:

8 recs for 165 yds (20.6 avg.) and 2 TDs 🙌

A look at all of his catches 👀

🔄: @NFL | More on https://t.co/KlYFEtTVGFpic.twitter.com/rzcQxVP0V8

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) August 25, 2021

Corey Davis, New York Jets

The hype around Corey Davis was nonexistent prior to the Jets second preseason game, but Davis has been flying up draft boards ever since. The market collectively underestimated both Zach Wilson's ability and Davis' role within the offense, but nobody has underestimated Davis' potential since he torched Green Bay for four catches and 71 yards in just the first quarter of action. Davis is now being drafted in the eighth round in high-stakes formats ahead of receivers like Jarvis Landry and Darnell Mooney, so the question becomes — has he risen too far up boards to provide value?

Davis certainly has the potential to crush his WR41 ADP, but a lot depends on external factors. For Davis to be a value at his new ADP Zach Wilson will have to be at least competent in year one, and he's shown positive signs in the preseason. If Wilson struggles, the Jets could be an extremely low-scoring team, which would cap Davis' TD upside. Additionally, Davis will have to clear at least 100 targets to pay off, if not 110, and a lot of that depends on Elijah Moore. If you can recall, Moore was the one rising up boards all offseason long until he suffered a quad injury that knocked him out of all preseason action. If Moore comes back 100 percent, there's a decent chance that he out-targets Davis in 2021, but Davis has the leg up right now due to his veteran status and preseason performance.

Corey Davis' only impact season happened in 2020, he's struggled with injuries, and he's playing in a questionable offense with a rookie quarterback under center, but he can still be a worthy pick because he's talented and he has a great chance to dominate targets. In 2020 the vast majority of wide receivers who cleared the 110 target mark finished as at least WR3's, and many of them who cleared 120 targets finished as WR1's/WR2's. As long as Davis stays healthy, he's likely worth drafting as the WR41 even after his rise because of the sheer target upside, and if the Jets offense is more efficient and productive than anticipated Davis could be one of the premier values in drafts this season.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

The tight end position desperately needs more quality fantasy producers, and as a result, a few tight ends are overdrafted every year after they rise up boards as the offseason progresses. T.J. Hockenson is arguably the biggest riser at the tight end position this year, and he's now being drafted in the late fifth round or early sixth round in high-stakes formats due to positive camp reports and a lack of target competition. The appeal is obvious, but recent history tells us that Hockenson could be the next overdrafted tight end.

What do Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram have in common? All of those tight ends flew up boards leading up to the crux of draft season in recent years, and they all failed to deliver value. While recent history says that Hockenson is likely being overdrafted, we can't blindly dismiss Hockenson as overvalued just because the majority of rising middle-round tight ends have busted recently. It's important to note that Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller all struggled to deliver plus fantasy value before making "the leap."

Outside of positional trends, Hockenson is clearly very talented, he has the draft pedigree (No. 8 overall pick in 2019), and he has very little wide receiver competition for targets. The biggest negative Hockenson has going for him is that he's playing in what will likely be a very poor Lions offense with a below-average quarterback in Jared Goff. The poor offense caps Hockenson's TD upside, but we've seen tight ends with extremely high targets shares thrive without massive touchdown totals in the past, so Hockenson can still pay off without a big TD total. Jared Goff isn't a great quarterback by any means, but he did feed Tyler Higbee nonstop at times when the pair played together on the Rams, so he could lock onto Hockenson at times in 2021.

If you're paying the current price for Hockenson and drafting him as this year's TE5, you're doing it because he's talented and because he could command a massive target share. Hockenson has a clear path to joining the elusive top-tier of fantasy tight ends, but there's no denying that the odds are stacked against him. If Hockenson stays healthy and commands 130 targets he will win fantasy leagues for those who take the gamble, but if he doesn't, those who drafted him will endure the same fate as others in past years who passed on backs with upside or established receivers in favor of trendy tight ends. There's no denying that the odds are against him, but the case for Hockenson making the leap is solid, the hype is sensible, and he could be a true league-winner despite his ever-rising ADP.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Thomas was arguably the biggest (pleasant) surprise at tight end in 2020, as the converted quarterback finished as the TE3 overall in PPR formats in his first season with Washington. Thomas racked up 110 targets last season, but drafters initially scoffed at his chances of repeating the success in 2021. Thomas was being drafted as the TE9/10 in most leagues prior to training camp, but he's enjoyed a steady rise up the board since and he's now being drafted as the TE7 in the eighth round in most formats.

When considering whether or not Thomas is worthy of his current ADP there are a couple of key factors to weigh against one another. One factor that plays into Thomas' favor is that he will be catching patches from Ryan Fitzpatrick this season after enduring brutal QB play and subsequent inefficiency last year. Fitzpatrick isn't an elite quarterback, but he takes chances and he's shown the ability to support high-end skill position player fantasy production. On the other hand, after lacking any competent receivers behind Terry McLaurin in 2020, Washington added Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries this offseason, both of whom could make targets harder to come by for Thomas.

Thomas likely won't see 110 targets again, so it's good that his rise has only brought him up to the TE7. Thomas should experience positive efficiency regression and score more touchdowns in 2021 with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, which would offset some of the likely target regression. The bottom line is that Thomas will still be a huge part of the Washington offense, and his ADP jump to TE7 reflects that. Thomas is a very safe selection at a position where safety is hard to come by.

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