The Bigger Picture - Glittery Prospects Aren't Always Fantasy Gold

June 4, 2021

Pierre Camus examines the trend of overspending FAB for unproven prospects for the 2021 MLB season and the fantasy baseball impact.

Jarred Kelenic, welcome to The Show. The next über-prospect that had fantasy managers chomping at the bit for a call-up got his first taste of the majors at age 21. It was fantastic... for about two days. Now, he is on the bench and/or chopping block in redraft leagues while many GMs wish they would have sold high two weeks ago when the hype was at its apex.

Each year, rookies move up and down the system to contribute for portions of the long season. Their introductions to the big league are ballyhooed events yet more often than not the results are underwhelming. You would think experienced fantasy managers would know better but some lessons are harder to learn. As I'll explain below, this doesn't exclude the analyst community either.

This article is dedicated to anyone who has ever bid hundreds of FAB (free-agent budget) on a prospect like Kelenic only to wish you had those imaginary dollar bills back to wipe your tears after they make your team demonstrably worse before being sent back down to the minors.

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Novelty Bias

Also known as Shiny New Toy Syndrome, dynasty baseball managers are especially prone to prioritizing youth and potential over realistic outcomes. Everybody wants to grab the next Juan Soto before he blows up but the inconvenient truth is there are very few gems like him and far more Donavan Tate and Mark Appel types.

The top prospect in the Mariners' system and No. 4 overall on MLB's Top 100, Kelenic's call-up will go down as the most hyped rookie debut of 2021 unless the Rays decide to bring up Wander Franco in the second half.

As mentioned above, it looks like he was going to live up to his billing as one of the top hitting prospects in the game. An 0-for-4 debut gave way to a three-hit outing in his second Major League game that included a home run and two doubles. Understandably, we were all stoked.

First career hit
First career home run
First career highlight

Cheers to many more for #Mariners Jarred Kelenic

Exit Velo: 109.3MPH
403 FT pic.twitter.com/a1RasHgyTg

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 15, 2021

On a personal note: I'm in a dynasty league with fellow RotoBaller @amoralpanic where I have once again run into an unfortunate turn of events and I find myself in need of a momentum boost (my team sucks). My "best" player was Christian Yelich, who I recently rage-traded, but I had an ace in the hole. You guessed it, Jarred Kelenic was sitting in my NA spot after I stashed him late last year as a $1 keeper. I didn't expect him to single-handedly drag my team out of the gutter but at least I had a ray of hope, a glimmer of sunshine in an otherwise dreary 2021 season. Then Kelenic smacked a homer for his first MLB hit and a new savior was born!

That's where the good news ends. Although he did go deep a week later followed by a two-hit game, either the rookie wall hit at warp speed, pitchers are finding his weaknesses, or he's pressing too hard at the plate. I'm opting for the last of those, as he is pulling the ball nearly half the time and getting under it 36.5% when he makes contact. His pop-up rate (11.5%) matches his line drive rate. No bueno.

As of this writing, Kelenic has gone hitless in his past 35 plate appearances. Out of 19 games played, there are only five in which he has collected a base hit. It may sound like I'm going out of my way to pick on him but he's simply the latest and most notable example of highly-touted prospects failing to make an immediate splash.

Flashy Flops

There are plenty of rookies who were drafted or snagged off waivers early in the season that have now become untouchable.

As far as hitters, notable flops include Cristian Pache, Ha-Seong Kim, Ryan Jeffers, Kyle Isbel, Taylor Trammell, Khalil Lee, Mickey Moniak.

Dylan Carlson and Andrew Vaughn were two of the top rookies heading into the season but so far their efforts have been modest and unimpactful.

Looking back at the 2021 Top 100 Prospects list from Fangraphs put together by Eric Longenhagen, here's how the hitters within the top 75 who have cracked the majors this year have fared:

Four of those 15 batters have an average over .250 and realistically only three of those players (Arozarena, Carlson, Chisholm) have been startable in fantasy leagues this season. You could point to Madrigal's average but he is a liability in terms of power and he doesn't steal bases so you simply get an adequate run total based on his PA. That's not starting material in most competitive 12-team leagues.

The ironic part is that the best rookie hitter is the one that was drafted absolutely nowhere - Jazz Chisholm Jr. The anti-Marlins bias is real.

Randy Arozarena is doing his thing but let's reflect back on his ADP as a top-50 pick in many leagues. Is he living up to that and providing sufficient ROI?

The Twins do seem capable of bringing along young hitters with Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach looking good early, so maybe there's hope for more breakouts. In all, putting these big-name prospects in your lineup at any point likely did more harm than good and burned up a roster spot along with some of your budget or waiver priority.

It's also worth noting that less-heralded prospects populate the rookie leaderboard, including late-age breakouts Adolis Garcia and Yermin Mercedes along with guys like Pavin Smith, Kyle Garlick, and red-hot Patrick Wisdom.

Now the pitchers:

Ouch.

Only Mize and Crochet have an ERA south of 4.00 and only Mize has more than a pair of wins. The funny/sad part is that he was dropped nearly everywhere by the end of April when his ERA sat at 5.06 with a 1.39 WHIP. He seems to prefer the month of May much better, as he hasn't allowed more than two ER in any of his last five starts.

Crochet is real-life good but not fantasy good since he isn't getting saves or wins and gets minimal usage. Unless you're in a holds league, he isn't worth rostering.

Some other high-end prospects just outside the top 100 have been successful like Michael Kopech and Shane McClanahan, But Kopech is on the IL and McClanahan just saw his ERA jump to 4.11 after lasting 3 1/3 innings against the Yanks, giving up four runs.

I'm not saying don't ever add rookie pitchers but... try not to.

FABing Crazy

So what do we do with a guy like Alek Manoah when he comes along?

After his impressive debut in which he fired six scoreless innings and struck out seven, I threw out a $90 bid in my TGFBI league, knowing it was a longshot. I didn't want to bet the farm on a young pitcher after one good start, especially coming against the punchless Yankees lineup (still sounds weird to say that unironically). He went for $277.

For those unfamiliar, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational is an industry league that brings together only fantasy analysts in 15-team NFBC contests. The best of the best. I was able to win my league last year and finish 12th overall out of about 350 participants. I'm aiming for a repeat, but that means I'm not blowing my FAB on Johnny Come Lately no matter what his FV says. It's not a dynasty league, after all.

So I didn't land Manoah and wasn't too disappointed. Turns out his second MLB start wasn't too stellar, as he allowed four ER in 3 1/3 innings to the Marlins. That's right, those disrespected fish got to the latest golden child for three long balls, including one by soon-to-be NL Rookie of the Year, Jazz Chisholm.

FUTURE HALL OF FAMER JAZZ CHISHOLM pic.twitter.com/SHJtPO6Flb

— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) June 3, 2021

Then Yimi Garcia blew the save and they lost the game. But I digress.

Looking back at previous bids on prospects, Deivi Garcia went for a more reasonable $59, which is about 6% of the annual FAB budget. He made a underwhelming start, got sent down, was recalled a month later for an even worse outing, then sent down again. It's not like wasting 6% kills your options for the rest of the season but all it accomplished was hurting your ratios for a spell.

That same week, Ryan Weathers saw a winning bid of $73, narrowly edging out the runner-up at $71. Two weeks later, he was dropped. Three weeks after that, he was reacquired by a different manager for $23. So far so good but I'm half-expecting a disastrous start any day.

Of course, we all remember Akil Baddoo. He drew a $115 bid in Week 2. Since then, he's batting .222 with three HR, 13 RBI in 35 games.

Today's Moral

If there is one kernel of wisdom I wish to constantly impart on fantasy managers, it's to always stay realistic and check your expectations. Projection systems aren't perfect and will not catch massive outliers. The computers didn't know that Luke Voit was going to lead the majors in home runs last year or that Trevor Bauer would be better than Jacob deGrom. What they do is come up with the most reasonable set of statistical outcomes for a player based on past performance and future value.

ATC has Jarred Kelenic pegged to hit .251 with 17 HR, 14 SB, 57 R, and 54 RBI. That seems reasonable. He won't go hitless much longer, nor will he lead the league in batting. If you plunked down half your budget to acquire him, it may seem like a waste but it won't be unless the team chooses to keep him down in the minors for a long spell.

As far as rookie pitchers, you should know better. Sell on Manoah if you have him and ignore the rest other than Mize.

We often let our enthusiasm for prospects get the best of us but it's usually better to put the mouse down and let someone else make that waiver claim.

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