Take Advantage of Preseason Panic! FFPC Best-Ball Value Picks

May 29, 2021

Pierre Camus discusses ADP fallers in best ball drafts based on off-field issues and media headlines, explaining why they could be great value picks for fantasy football in 2021.

With several weeks to go before NFL training camps are underway, all we have is speculation as to how things will shake out in the 2021 season. That said, we have plenty of drama because of a couple of high-profile players making headlines off the field. Then there are the smaller stories that also impact the way best-ball drafts are playing out early in the preseason.

Several players who would normally be ranked higher have seen their ADP in FFPC leagues fall due to media headlines. Sometimes the concerns might be based on legitimate reasons but the overreaction in some fantasy drafts can get out of hand.

In this mental exercise, I'll play Devil's Advocate (not the Al Pacino version) to the most commonly expressed concerns about each player by providing a witty, informative retort. To be clear, I'm not saying to draft all these players every chance you get. I am saying don't not draft them at all, capiche?

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers?

Rodgers' ADP free-fall began before the NFL Draft, coincidentally around the same time it was reported that he wanted out of Green Bay. Then the team went defense-heavy early in the draft and only took Amari Rodgers in the third round while adding no receivers through free agency.

He's now going behind Jalen Hurts as the QB9 in FFPC leagues. That's not outrageously low but for someone who just threw for 4,300 yards and a league-leading 48 touchdowns, it seems a tad low. Let's hear what Panicked Pat has to say.

He didn't show up to OTAs, which means he doesn't want to play for the Packers anymore!

Good! A trade would simply boost his value because it would make for a better team context.

Rodgers anywhere else but Green Bay wouldn't be the same.

Absolutely correct - it would be better. He would have a better collection of targets in Denver with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler. That's two first-rounders and two second-rounders. In Green Bay he had Davante Adams and... a bunch of guys who were either undrafted or late-rounders, none of whom have made a mark in the league despite having one of the best QBs in the league.

He might retire to host Jeopardy.

So why didn't he do that already? Seriously, what is he waiting for if that was his plan all along?

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

He's being used as a receiver in rookie mini-camp! That means James Robinson is still the starting RB.

Stop it. Since when do we care about what drills are done in rookie mini-camp? When there's nothing else football-related to talk about, that's when. Joe Mixon was also running routes as a receiver in mini-camp. Does that mean we're elevating Samaje Perine to starting status in Cincy? If anything, Etienne's increased versatility catching passes in that offense makes him more valuable. The team did not spend a first-round pick on a player to have him sit behind last year's undrafted free agent. This is a new regime, remember, and Urban Meyer identified his guy that he wants in the backfield. This is likely a 70-30 split in terms of touches, which makes Etienne an obvious fantasy RB2 with Robinson a bench player.

Urban Meyer called him a "third-down back" and he sees Robinson and Hyde as the "one-two punch."

First of all, coach speak - don't buy it. Second, we already knew Robinson would still get touches so this isn't a shock. Taken literally, his quote has been interpreted by some as an early RB depth chart that reads: 1. Robinson 2. Hyde 3. Etienne. Instead, it should be interpreted as Robinson will play on early downs with Hyde occasionally getting in on some series. Etienne will be getting most if not all of the pass-catching work in addition to running the ball.

Meyer also explained, "He's the Percy (Harvin) — we're hoping... Offensive coordinators love those kind of guys who can do multiple things." Back in 2009, Harvin finished as the fantasy WR20 in his rookie campaign followed by another WR20 season and then WR7 in 2011 when he totaled 1,312 total yards and eight touchdowns. Etienne will still be a running back first but the potential boost in his receiving numbers should be viewed as a positive.

For what it's worth, Etienne isn't bothered by it. "I feel like it's going to help me maximize my opportunity, maximize my skill set, so I feel like Coach knows what he's doing," he said. Maybe we shouldn't worry too much either. First-round draft capital + offensive-minded coach is usually a recipe for success.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets

A later-round pick, Crowder wouldn't seem to have far to fall but he has now gotten to the point where he's not even being drafted in many leagues with an ADP of 227 and a low of 272. Rumors swirl that he could be released after the selection of Elijah Moore, presumably to man the slot. Is that necessarily a bad thing?

He's going to be released after the selection of Elijah Moore, presumably to man the slot.

Good observation. Crowder's $10 million salary is a lot for a rebuilding team that has three younger, better receivers. It would cost the team a $1 million dead cap hit which isn't terrible. What would become of him if the Jets were to release him?

Logically, he'd be signed by another team in need of a slot target. Everyone wants to link the Titans to Julio Jones in trade talks but the far more logical solution is that they scoop up Crowder on the cheap. He then becomes the WR2 in Tennessee and possibly more productive that he's been in years.

Crowder has never gone for 1,000 yards or double-digit touchdowns. You can do better.

Of course you can do better, but after pick 200? At that point, you're looking at receivers like Tre'Quan Smith, Sterling Shepard, and Christian Kirk. Do any of those strike you as a 1,000-yard receiver?

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans??

Some people don't want to touch this issue with a 10-foot pole but I'll bite. This is in no way an endorsement or indictment of the man, simply an evaluation of his draft value in best-ball leagues.

He may not even play football this season!

Keeping it strictly football-related, I'll just say that I would be amazed if Watson didn't get on the field in 2021. Recent reports indicate that a settlement may already be in the works but Watson has refused because he wants the facts out there to clear his name. Either way, nothing I've read on this situation gives me the feeling Watson will be declared guilty or suspended as of now.

Even if the civil suit is settled or thrown out, the NFL might suspend him.

Really? Since when does the league give harsher penalties than the legal system? Antonio Brown recently settled a sexual assault case that didn't result in suspension. His eight-game suspension in 2020 was due to a no-contest plea to burglary and battery charges. There is definitely a chance Watson is suspended but it's not a sure thing. In best-ball, even half a season of Watson is worth a draft pick.

He doesn't want to play in Houston so he may sit out.

The first thing that scouts and fans alike have pointed to as Watson's main asset isn't arm strength, elusiveness, or accuracy - it's his leadership and competitive nature. This isn't a player who will just sit out. The Texans, who've already got a major black eye in the public based on the decision to keep Bill O'Brien on too long, stay tied to Jack Easterby for inexplicable reasons, trade away DeAndre Hopkins, and alienate Deshaun Watson, won't simply hold onto him all year. He'll play or be traded.

Even if he plays for Houston, they're going to be terrible!

Of course they are, but since when has that hurt Watson's fantasy production? They went 4-12 last year and he led the league with 4,823 yards! If anything, a terrible defense and unreliable running game just mean more passing attempts. They still have Brandin Cooks and a few young receivers to work with like Nico Collins. Volume is king in fantasy and he'll have plenty of it if he does ever play for Houston again.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Here's an interesting one. Nothing drastic has happened with Carr's situation or team context that would cause him to drop but nonetheless, he is steadily falling. Carr is being drafted outside the top-25 at QBs in non-Superflex leagues, after the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Darnold. Carr has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in three straight seasons, finished with a solid 27-9 TD-INT rate last year, and is a near-lock to play a full season after starting 110 out of a possible 112 games since entering the league in 2014. Let's hear what Mr. Panic (that's right, his full name is Pat Panic) has to say.

Carr doesn't have a high ceiling and won't help you win a league.

Fair enough, he is certainly not going to be a league-winner. But as an iron man with a high floor, he could be the ideal QB2 that affords you the chance to ignore a third player at the position and load up on more RB or WR. He finished with a respectable 8.6% win rate in 2020, good for QB15. He shouldn't be your starter but given the fact you can select him around pick 154, you should target him as a backup.

The Raiders didn't improve their offense at all in the offseason, especially their O-line. Alex Leatherwood at 17 overall?

Can't argue with that one. Not sure what they were thinking with that reach in the first round but the same could be said for Henry Ruggs III last year. The WR corps didn't get better but it also didn't get worse. Nelson Agholor for John Brown is essentially a wash. The offensive line lost some pieces but they were among the lowest-ranked units last season, so change can't possibly make them worse. In all, it's about the same talent level so he should perform about the same.

Carr won't be a starter because Aaron Rodgers is going to Vegas baby!

This is a good place to end today's Q&A session. Thanks for your attention and good luck in 2021.

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