The Cut List: Week 5 - Time to Let Go?

April 25, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 5 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers should consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer peek. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, worth monitoring for replacing and someone on the hot seat but worth holding on to... for now.

Last week, The Cut List received a huge number of questions on the Reddit thread about potential drop candidates. So this week, the 'Under Consideration' section will be looking at some of the popular names included on Reddit by the readers. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop but hopefully will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two in the middle of the season is easily hidden across a whole season. But when it's to start the year or when looking at just a week of stats, a 1-for-15 slump is much more noticeable. We'll be putting an emphasis on players' roles as well as their stats in our decision-making process too. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing

Zach Davies - SP, Chicago Cubs - 34% rostered

Davies was under consideration last weekend and despite lowering his ERA to 8.80 after his last start, he's still being downgraded to droppable. His last start against the Mets saw him last just four innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits and two walks. Davies only recorded two strikeouts and his season strikeout rate (K%) of 12.8% is low even for him. He does have an inflated BABIP (.345) but as a 'contact pitcher,' his BABIP will be higher than most anyway. What's most concerning are his 6.86 xERA, 6.01 xFIP and 6.15 SIERA. There's currently nothing in Davies' numbers to warrant rostering him in fantasy nor does he offer anything a solid middle reliever or setup man can't give you.

Verdict - Droppable in all leagues of 14-teams and under. Only worth rostering in NL-only or very deep leagues but even then, you're benching him for the foreseeable future.

Clint Frazier - OF, New York Yankees - 34% rostered

Another one downgraded from 'under consideration,' Frazier has done nothing this week to warrant staying on fantasy rosters. His slash line now sits at .156/.283/.200 and he's losing playing time to Brett Gardner. The Yankees offense looks like it's finally waking up from an early-season slumber. All except for Frazier that is. He's still homerless, although he did drive in his first run of the season on Wednesday. He will improve and his walk rate (BB%) of 15.1% is encouraging but he's looking a little lost at the plate and likely needs a mechanical adjustment to get him hitting consistently at a high level.

Verdict - Droppable in all leagues of 12-teams and under. In deeper leagues, he can be held on to and benched but there's likely someone available on waivers who can help you more.

Joc Pederson - OF, Chicago Cubs - 26% rostered

Like Frazier, Pederson (wrist) has a miserable slash line (.137/.262/.235) and while the BB% (11.5%) helps, he's having a negative impact on your fantasy rosters. He's actually contributed in the counting stats columns with five runs, four RBI and a homer. But he's got a .077 batting average against left-hand pitching this year and given his career number is .187, you can't believe he'll suddenly be able to hit lefties. A wrist injury has seen the outfielder be placed on the injured list and even if he returns after the minimum ten days, he's unlikely to return any value on his return.

Verdict - Droppable in all leagues.

Hold For Now

Corey Kluber - SP, New York Yankees - 71% rostered

Kluber's last start against the Braves was his longest of the year, yet he still failed to complete the fifth inning, ending with a line of 4.2 innings, two earned runs, two hits, 4 walks and two strikeouts. We alluded to his career-long April struggles in last week's Cut List and it continues to be a problem, especially Kluber's lack of control (15.1% BB%). His next start is scheduled to be against the Orioles and April struggles aside, anything other than having his best start of the season and lowering his ERA from its current mark of 5.40 will leave Kluber very much on the bubble of being dropped.

Amir Garrett - RP, Cincinnati Reds - 57% rostered

Garrett isn't the only reliever in the Reds bullpen struggling after a horrendous series against the Diamondbacks in which the bullpen had a collective 13.50 ERA in 13.1 IP. Garrett bore the brunt of things in that series, giving up four earned runs in one inning over two outings. Five of the batters he faced got on base (three walks and two hits) and he only struck out one. Following that series, Reds manager David Bell said he still has confidence in Garrett, but fantasy managers likely don't. He did pitch a clean inning against the Cardinals on Friday, but will need to string a few more similar outings to remain on fantasy rosters.

Dallas Keuchel - SP, Chicago White Sox - 69% rostered

Keuchel was listed here last week and his last outing didn't instill much confidence in him moving forward, but it did reward fantasy managers with a win for anyone starting him. He pitched the minimum five innings to get it and gave up two earned runs on six hits but it was still his best outing of the season. For the first time this year, Keuchel didn't walk anybody and given his paltry strikeout numbers (12.3% K%), that will be crucial for him moving forward. If he continues to show improvement in his start against the Rangers on Saturday night, he could find himself removed from dropping consideration.

Update: Keuchel had his best start of the season against Texas, throwing six shutout innings, allowing seven hits, no walks, along with two strikeouts. He was in line for the win, but Liam Hendriks blew the save. Back-to-back outings with no walks is very encouraging and if the White Sox offense can get going, Keuchel should be back to being a great ratios helper while picking up regular wins.

On the Hot Seat

Victor Robles - OF, Washington Nationals - 63% rostered

Robles continued to divide the fantasy community this offseason and has continued to struggle at the plate. Through 17 games, he has a .193/.333/.231 slash line and is yet to hit a homer, although he does have one stolen base. Robles does have an impressive 12.7% BB% and his 23.8% K% is in line with his career mark. But when he does make contact, it's weak contact as shown by ranking in the sixth percentile for hard-hit rate and 13th percentile for barrel rate and exit velocity. Robles believers will continue to believe, but at this point, it's looking more like blind hope rather than confidence he can become a fantasy star.

Under Consideration - The Reddit Requests

As promised, here are ten of the most asked about players from last week's Reddit thread as to whether they're droppable.

Cavan Biggio - 2B/3B/OF,  Toronto Blue Jays - 91% rostered

Biggio has a paltry .135 batting average with two homers and zero steals. In 62 plate appearances, he's struck out twenty times and yet found himself promoted to leadoff hitter this week. He entered this weekend on an 0-for-13 skid and other than his 12.9% BB%, there's little to get excited about. That being said, he's still a 20/20 threat and across the 175 MLB games he's now played, he has 26 homers and 20 steals with a .232/.359/.419 line. He's more valuable in OBP leagues, but still has enough value and upside to not be dropped in fantasy leagues.

Ian Happ - 2B/3B/OF,  Chicago Cubs - 66% rostered

The Cubs offense sprung into life on Friday, scoring 15 runs against the Brewers. Unfortunately, Happ was on the bench for that outburst, but he returned to the leadoff spot on Saturday. Entering Saturday's game, Happ had a .155/.319/.207 line and in what seems to be a common theme about outfielders in this article, he has a good BB% (17.8%) but has been a batting average liability. Happ does actually have some solid underlying numbers and his expected average (xBA .223) and expected slugging (xSLG .417) does offer hope he will start to warm up soon. Happ should still be rostered in the majority of leagues.

Aaron Hicks - OF, New York Yankees - 29% rostered

Hicks' splits against LHP and RHP are eye-opening with a .100 AVG against RHP and .300 AVG against LHP. It might beg the question of why he switch hits, but we're not here to answer that*. Hicks is getting back to what made him such a solid hitter and while he's only gone 2-for-10 this week, he's walked four times and one of those two hits was a homer. The Yankees offense appears to be turning the corner good and Hicks is showing signs for fantasy managers to be optimistic. In shallow leagues (10-teams) there are still likely better options due to his low batting average, but in deeper leagues or those counting OBP, Hicks should still be rostered.

*Hicks answered that by homering off Shane Bieber as a leftie about five seconds before I completed this article.

Tommy Pham - OF, San Diego Padres - 76% rostered

What do we have here? Ah yes, another outfielder who has a disappointing batting average (.159) but a very good BB% (14.3%). Although Pham predominantly hits sixth or seventh in the Padres lineup, the Padres have a stacked offense and Pham has still managed to score four runs, drive in five runs and steal two bases. Pham is still hitting the ball hard and concerns about his sight should be allayed especially given his BB% and K% (19.5%). Pham looks most likely of all outfielders we've covered to break out of his slump very soon and should still be rostered in all fantasy leagues.

Keston Hiura - 1B/2B, Milwaukee Brewers - 83% rostered

Preseason concerns about Hiura's strikeout troubles are materializing, as he currently has a 34.4% K% which makes last year's 34.6% K% look more like the norm than an outlier. Those struggles have led to a .111 batting average with one homer and one steal, offering no value to fantasy managers. While some will maintain the belief Hiura can still turn things around given he is only 24 years old, it's hard to see any positives with his performances. And little reason to believe they'll improve. I'd be comfortable dropping Hiura in all re-draft leagues and in dynasty leagues, I'd look to trade him away while he still offers some hope of improvement to potential takers.

Yoan Moncada - 3B, Chicago White Sox - 94% rostered

Moncada is a prime example of why you shouldn't panic about struggling stars at the start of the year. Last Sunday, when I was getting asked whether Moncada should be dropped, he was hitting .180 with one homer, six runs and six RBI. Fast forward to this Saturday and he's hitting .234 with two homers, eight runs and 11 RBI. Ok, he's yet to steal a base and hasn't recorded a stolen base in his last 81 MLB games. But he's still going to be one of the top third basemen in fantasy at season's end. Do not drop him!

Michael Conforto - OF, New York Mets - 91% rostered

Ready for it........ Conforto is an outfielder who has a disappointing batting average (.208) but a good BB% (10.3%). The concern surrounding Conforto is the amount of weak contact he's producing as he currently ranks in the first percentile for hard-hit rate and has just one barrel. As I'm typing this, he's hit his first homer of the year with his three other extra-base hits all being doubles. Since 2018, Conforto has ranked in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit metrics but has still produced plenty of fantasy value. So fantasy managers shouldn't be too worried and his first homer could spark Conforto's bat into life. He should be held on to in all leagues.

Jeff McNeil - 2B/3B/OF,  New York Mets - 86% rostered

McNeil is justifiably regarded as a batting average only guy in fantasy, but tallies plenty of counting stats and can chip in with some homers. The problem for fantasy managers rostering McNeil is not only is he struggling at the plate (.174/.269/.283), but he's also not hitting at the top of the order. Those counting stats fantasy managers were counting on have now been seriously reduced. Even if McNeil gets back to hitting .300, the fact he started the season hitting seventh in the lineup suggests he'll need others to struggle or get hurt to force his way up the batting order. His positional versatility does provide value, especially in deeper leagues. But in 12-team leagues or smaller, he's droppable.

Max Kepler - OF, Minnesota Twins - 66% rostered

Max Kepler in 2021 is basically doing what Max Kepler always does. Except he's traded power for speed (three steals and zero homers), which given the dearth of stolen bases in fantasy, isn't a bad thing. He's hitting .234 which is almost his career mark (.237) and has eight RBI and five runs in 14 games. He was placed on the COVID reserve list on Tuesday so all being well, should return to action in the coming week. Given his season-high stolen base total is six, it's hard to tell if his current proficiency will stick. He ranks in the 71st percentile or better in hard-hit metrics so expect him to get his first homer of the season soon after he returns and if the steals maintain, Kepler could end up being a huge draft day bargain.

Marcell Ozuna - OF, Atlanta Braves - 98% rostered

Ozuna appeared to be finding form during last weekend's series with the Cubs. In three games, Ozuna went 6-for-12 with three walks and three strikeouts. He also scored three runs and drove in four. Since then, he's gone 0-for-9 (with three walks) and hasn't hit a home run since April 13, which remains his only homer on the season. Ozuna likely benefitted from predominantly being a DH last year (hitting 18 homers in 60 games with a .338 batting average) but he had success as a hitter prior to 2020 while playing the outfield. His track record is more than enough for fantasy managers to remain calm on Ozuna and there's nothing alarming in his underlying number that suggests you should drop or trade him away.

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