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Mike Schwarzenbach evaluates three starting pitchers who surged late in 2020 and could be fantasy baseball sleepers and breakouts in 2021 drafts.
Do you remember the 21st night of September? I certainly don't. Amid a global pandemic, figuring out the kid's remote school schedule, and fantasy football, the whole month is a little hazy, much to the chagrin of Earth Wind and Fire.
Lucky for us, every bit of data that happened on a baseball field is tracked and we can take a look back at pitchers that surged towards the end of last season who may be overlooked in fantasy.
Let's break down three starting pitchers going after pick 200 who quietly had a strong finish and could carry that momentum into 2021.
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John Means, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 215
Means is the poster-boy for finishing last season strong. The ace of the Orioles had a disastrous start to the season. He lost his father to cancer in July and missed his first start due to arm soreness. His performance reflected something was off. After allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings on September 2, Means' ERA sat at a disturbing 8.10 with terrible peripheral stats.
After that start, Means had a tough-love conversation with manager Brandon Hyde about getting back to basics, according to the Baltimore Sun, and apparently, something clicked. Means returned to what made him an All-Star in 2019 and dominated in his last four starts. Check it out.
| John Means Last Four Starts | |||||
| Opponent | IP | ER | H | BB | K |
| @NYM | 6.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| @NYY | 6.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| vs. TB | 5.2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 (!) |
| @TOR (Buffalo) | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 (!) |
Add it all up and that's 23 2/3 innings at a 1.52 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and a 30:3 strikeout to walk ratio. Means generated swinging-strikes at a 15.7 percent rate and generated an impressive 51.9 percent ground-ball rate.
The key for Means is his fastball which he threw over 50 percent of the time and sits at a toasty 94 MPH. He commands the pitch to all zones and seldom issues free passes (95th percentile walk-rate last year). The heater generated a minuscule .155 batting average against and had a pristine .129 xBA last year. With three secondary offerings that generate at least a 20 percent whiff rate, Means is ready to replicate his September success over a full season.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 250
Singer is a pitcher who should be getting more hype based on how he finished last season. The former first-round pick went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA, .114 batting average against, and had 25 strikeouts in 24 innings across his last four starts. Those numbers would look even better without a short start vs St. Louis.
| Brady Singer Last Four Starts | |||||
| Opponent | IP | ER | H | BB | K |
| @CLE | 8.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| @DET | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| vs STL | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| vs DET | 7.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
Singer took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of that start at Cleveland, by the way. This is a high-end pitching prospect that scratched the surface of his potential last September. Now with a "full" season under his belt Singer appears ready to ascend to the top of the Kansas City rotation and reward fantasy managers that use a late-round pick on the 24-year-old.
Singer's calling card is an elite sinker that helped him finish fourth in the Majors with a 51.9 percent ground ball rate last year. His sinker posted a run value that ranked tied for 13th among 164 players that threw sinkers last year, according to BaseballSavant. He pairs it with a quality slider that generated a 32.8 percent whiff rate. If he could get his changeup to the level of his other two offerings then look out, Singer has ace-upside. Even without a third pitch, however, Singer is a bargain at his current ADP.
He won't post elite strikeout totals, but Singer reminds me of a young Kyle Hendricks who has been a top-100 pick in fantasy for quite some time. Singer has high start-to-start upside and is available at the very end of most standard-size drafts.
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 253
No player did a 180 for me this offseason quite like Gonsolin. As of January 31, Gonsolin had an ADP of 200 overall and was firmly on my "Do Not Draft" list.
Then things changed, notably, Trevor Bauer signed a record deal in LA that put Gonsolin's rotation spot in question and torpedoed his ADP to its current slot outside the top-250. While the Bauer signing lowered Gonsolin's odds of being in the Opening Day rotation, it doesn't change that much for how he will be deployed this season. The Dodgers were always going to rotate through starters; it's what you do when you have a pitching arsenal this deep. Coming off a 60-game season and World Series run, there are workload concerns for every Dodger pitcher, except maybe Bauer.
A pitcher with Gonsolin's ability will find a way to get on the mound, this is where his Statcast metrics ranked among all qualified pitchers last season:
That, to me looks like a definitively above-average pitcher who would probably be a top-five starter for any other team. His surge in September last season (five games, four starts) offered a glimpse into Gonsolin's upside.
The right-hander posted a 3.41 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a 29:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 29 innings. He was a bit unlucky, as well, as his 2.29 FIP estimated his ERA should've been about a run lower. His September dominance even included a two-run, 10 strikeout performance in the most daunting pitching environment in baseball, Coors Field.
It may not be right out of the gate, but Gonsolin will make an impact for the Dodgers this season. You'll want him on your fantasy team when he does get his turn.
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