Later-Round Category Targets - Stolen Bases

Jon Anderson identifies hitters to target in 2021 fantasy baseball drafts to help with the stolen base category in roto leagues.

The stolen base is like no other category in the rotisserie game. It is correlated to no other category that is used in fantasy and is influenced by "specialists" (meaning players who only contribute in one category) way more than any other as well.

Steal attempts have also been trending downward in recent MLB history, making it harder to find players who can help in this category. Looking towards 2021, nothing seems ready to change. In fact, it may get even bleaker.

Once you're done here, you can also read other articles in this series for my breakdowns of other later-round category targets.

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Where Have the Steals Gone?

Here's what the trend looks like:

SBA% is a measure of how often players try to steal second base after reaching first base. The formula is ((SB+CS) / (1B+BB).) 

The range of steals is also much, much wider than the range of any other category. The league leader may reach 60 bases, while there will be dozens of qualified hitters with zero steals.

These two facts lead to steals being extremely concentrated amongst a small group of players. Here's the distribution of steals totals from 2019:

You can see that a handful of players went over 30, while most of the league came in under five. In 2019, there were 2,275 stolen bases. The top ten base stealers stole 345 (15% of the total), the top 20 stole 572 (25%).

The most gloomy news of all is that a lot of the top stolen base names were overall not helpful in the fantasy world. Mallex Smith led the league with 46 steals but hit .227 with six homers, 70 runs, and 37 RBI. If you had him in your lineup every day, he would have crushed you three of the five standard categories while being below average in runs. That throws into question whether the elite steals total was even worth the roster spot. Much of the same can be said with other top-10 names like Adalberto Mondesi, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Dyson, and Victor Robles.

Checking the Steamer projections and filtering out anybody with an ADP above 300, we find that the top five projected base stealers (Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Trevor Story) have an 11% share on the total projected steals. If we look at the top ten names (adding in Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield, Jose Ramirez, Starling Marte, and Luis Robert), the percentage moves up to 19%.

You also notice that those are some big-time names, with only Merrifield and Marte having ADPs above 30.

The top 20 hitters off the board project to have a 25% share on the total steals you'll get from the top 300 ADP (pitchers are being included in these ADP numbers by the way).

I could go on and on but I think the point is clear. It's very hard to find steals without paying a premium price.

Stolen Base Threats

The purpose of this post is to give you value targets to help you in steals. And I will do that soon, I promise. But the most important point here is that there really aren't many. With every other category, there are names that you can pull the trigger on late in the draft that will give you a big boost in one category without murdering your team in other places. That's not the case here.

If you find yourself in the fifth round with no projected steals, you are probably sunk. It is so important to fill this need right away. But if you fail, here are some names that may possibly help.

Dylan Moore (2B/OF, SEA)

With an ADP of 110, this guy still isn't free, but he still profiles as one of the most valuable names in the game this year in steals. Steamer has him down for 22 steals. For his career, he has 23 steals in 151 games, so that projection is right in line with his career pace. What separates him from a lot of the other names we will talk about here is the fact that he might not hurt you in other categories. Last year (in just 38 games), he hit eight homers (a 34 homers pace over a full season) with a .255 batting average and a .358 on-base percentage. His maximum exit velocity at 109 shows that he does have some bat speed there, and his strong .416 expected wOBA on contact is also a positive. The negatives are the high strikeout rate (31% career) and the less than stellar Mariners lineup he is apart of (although he will likely hit in the top three in the order so that helps his PA count substantially).

Two weeks ago, Moore had an ADP of 140 - so as more and more drafts come in we are seeing that a lot of managers are placing the proper premium on steals. Moore could absolutely find himself in the top 100 picks when it comes time for your league's draft, which would make him a pretty risky pick given how little we've seen from him. But again, it may be a risk you have to take if you've neglected the steals category to that point - Moore is truly the last man standing that can steal 30 bases and has solidified playing time and the opportunity to help in other categories.

Jonathan Villar (SS/OF, NYM)

The Mets were not the ideal landing spot for Villar, as he does not have a spot in the starting lineup there. The fact that he can play all over the diamond helps and should earn him a few starts a week, but not playing every day is a killer in a lot of fantasy leagues. If you play in a daily changes league where you can start him when he starts and sit him when he doesn't, then he is worth a roster spot, but otherwise, you are probably better off exploring for steals elsewhere. The good news is that this signing should keep Villar's ADP low (currently 143). If he would fall outside of the top 150, I think he's a really valuable fantasy player in leagues with deep rosters and daily changes.

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

Concerningly, Robles attempted just five steals in 52 games last year after stealing 28 bags in 2019. Anything less than a 25-steal season would make Robles worthless in 2021 unless he majorly improves elsewhere. His career .250/.320/.407 triple-slash line with a 25% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate doesn't inspire much confidence that he can do that. It's still important to note that the guy is only 23 years old and was previously a highly-touted prospect, so a bust-out season is still within the range of outcomes, but right now you're spending a near top-150 pick (ADP of 154 right now) on a guy that could very well be bad to horrible in every category.

Myles Straw (SS/OF, HOU)

The George Springer departure gives Straw a boost in projected plate appearances, but he is by no means locked in to play every day. When he is playing, he will be running. He stole six bases last year without even reaching 90 plate appearances, and he stole 70 (!) bases in 2018 between AA and AAA. There is enough contact ability to make him a solid batting average candidate as well, and there could be a lot of runs coming if he finds himself at the top of the order for the Astros. That is not the most likely situation, of course, and lots of things will have to break Straw's way for him to be a useful fantasy player in 2021, but that propensity for steals makes him someone to keep in mind.

Nick Madrigal (2B, CHW)

Alert, alert! A two-category player has appeared! Madrigal also appeared in our batting average targets post. That makes him pretty interesting with an ADP near 200. In 2019, Madrigal stole 35 bases between three minor league levels while hitting .311. In his first 29 Major League games, however, he attempted just three steals. The White Sox had him hitting ninth last year, and that is unlikely to change with their stacked lineup all returning in 2021. Combine those two concerns with the fact that he will almost surely hit fewer than 10 home runs (he has 12 career homers in 1,722 plate appearances) and you are in pretty risky territory. If you can get him near the 20th round of your draft, that takes away a good amount of the risk, but any more helium to that draft cost may take him out of smart consideration.

Leody Taveras (OF, TEX)

The 21-year-old stole eight bases in 33 games with the Rangers last year, often hitting leadoff. He hurt fantasy teams in batting average (.227) and on-base percentage (.308) while only contributing a little bit in power (four homers), but his 10.4% walk rate would make him a confident steals target if he indeed is leading off for the Rangers this year. With the trade sending Elvis Andrus away for Khris Davis, the Rangers do have an opening in the top third of that lineup and Roster Resource currently does project Taveras to be the guy. If he comes out of the gate in Spring Training leading off, he is one of the more interesting steals names that often falls out of the top 200 picks (ADP 199 right now).

SBA% Leaders

The most important thing to projecting steals is projecting plate appearances. We can't do that very accurately right now since Spring Training has not begun. Once we start seeing some lineups roll across the screen we will have a better idea, and we can come back and revisit this. For now, we can just give you a list of the guys that have run the most often over the last two seasons. Store these names away and if you see any of them popping up near the top of the lineup in Spring Training, move them upwards on your draft board.

Try to set your team up so it doesn't need to rely on one of these names for steals. Prioritize high steals totals early in the draft so then you can focus on more profitable bets in the later rounds.

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