Deeper Draft Sleepers - First Base

March 19, 2021

Deep 1B draft sleepers for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. Mike Schwarzenbach identifies undervalued first basemen worth targeting at current ADP.

Don't look now, but baseball season is on the horizon. Actually, go ahead and look as it is beautiful to see the calendar shrink as each day brings us closer to the crack of the bat and, hopefully, the roar of the crowd as America (and Toronto!) creeps back towards normalcy.

It's never a bad idea to look at some sleepers for the upcoming season and the four below are going outside the top-350 in Average Draft Position (ADP). These guys have no business being drafted in your 10-team league with standard rosters. However, in leagues that draft over 300 players, they offer a ton of value.

Hitting on some late picks is key to success in deeper formats so let's dig into some names to target in leagues deeper than 12-teams or in those that utilize a Corner Infield roster slot. All ADP data is based on NCF ADP through 1/26/21.

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Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

ADP 381, 1B38

Belt is someone I have a hard time calling a "deep sleeper" as I'd rather call him "A really good hitter fantasy baseballers aren't interested in for some reason." Sure, it's easy to dismiss the shortened 2020 season, after all, how much data do we really have to justify Belt's .309/.425/.591 slash line? Are 113 batted balls enough to back up this elite batted-ball data?

Statistically speaking, it'd be nice to have more data to prove changes Belt made to his swing caused his sudden offensive outburst. However, if we look back multiple years Belt's production isn't totally out of the blue. His career barrel rate (10.7%), sweet spot percentage (41.8%), xwOBA (.351), and walk rate (13.8%) are all well above average since MLB started tracking batted ball data in 2015. He made changes to his swing last season to square the ball up better which resulted in more line drives and a 1.015 OPS, second to only Freddie Freeman among 1B eligible players.

I don't like to use the F-word in articles, but Belt's ADP is flabbergasting.

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

ADP 401, 1B40

Ever have a job where there's no time for training so they just let you learn on the fly? That was Evan White last season starting 54 of 60 games for the Mariners. The 24-year-old was in over his head, batting just .176 while being one of only two qualified hitters to post a strikeout rate over 40 percent.

So what about his ugly stat line suggests he'll be better in 2021? The answer, as always, is sample size. White struggled at the MLB level last season, but he only played four career games above Double-A prior to 2020. The reality is, White needed some time at Triple-A, but, thanks to a global pandemic, Seattle's only options were to keep him at their alternate site or let White take his lumps versus Big League pitching.

Now that said lumps hath been taken, White is ready to contribute and should vastly outperform his ADP. His strikeout issues are concerning, but it was just 202 PA against better pitching than he'd ever seen. In over 1,000 minor-league PA, White sported a much more manageable 20.3 percent K-rate with a strong 9.2 walk-rate to match. I'm inclined to believe White will perform closer to his minor league track record.

If White can cut his strikeouts even a little bit he should be solid as the everyday 1B in Seattle. He makes great contact when he hits the ball (52.1% hard-hit rate) and has above-average speed for his position. His strong defense will have him starting every day making him a great target in the 340-350 range of ADP.

Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins

ADP 405, 1B41

Cooper is a classic late-bloomer playing for a non-marquee team, i.e. fans at large don't know who he is but fantasy managers should be taking notes. Cooper is entering his age-30 season with just 168 MLB games played, but he's shown dramatic improvement since locking down an everyday role in Miami. His barrel rate, launch angle, hard-hit rate, and strikeout-rate have all improved three-straight seasons as Cooper worked his way from the fringes of the Majors to starting for a playoff team.

My favorite aspect of Cooper's game is his opposite-field power. Unlike a lot of power-hitting 1B, Cooper hits the ball to all fields with authority. It's not a ton of batted-ball data, but check out his spray chart from last season. (Note the extra-base hits to right and center field.)

Cooper will isn't assured everyday at-bats as he and Jesus Aguilar will battle for playing time at first base. However, Cooper can also play right field and this deep into the draft, it's better to bet on talent. Cooper has it and Miami will find a way to get his bat in the lineup.

Jake Lamb, Free Agent

ADP 677, 1B59

You were promised a deep sleepers article and dammit if we're not gonna dive into the 600 range of ADP. The former All-Star third baseman isn't someone you need to draft outside of, say, a 20-plus team fantasy league or a best-ball draft, but keep an eye on Lamb in spring training when he signs with a team. Unlike the names above, Lamb's fantasy appeal is pure speculation at this point.

He batted an abysmal .116 last season before getting cut by the Diamondbacks. His 2018-2019 seasons were marred by injuries, limiting him to just 136 games across two seasons where he hit .208 with almost twice as many strikeouts (120) as walks (58). It seemed we'd seen the last of Lamb in fantasy, but he was signed by the A's in September and was a key contributor down the stretch helping Oakland reach the postseason. It may have been just 49 PA, but Lamb slashed .267/.327/.556 with Oakland.

Baseball is a funny game; if Lamb is fully-healthy and has his confidence back he could stick on a team and contribute. Lamb is still just 30 years old and we've seen his upside blasting 59 home runs in the 2016-17 seasons when he was a top-12 third baseman in fantasy. There are worse names to take a flyer on this late in the game.

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