Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - Sony Open

Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! 2021 started with a bang last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Harris English, one of 2020's most consistent players, defeated young Joaquin Niemann in a sudden-death playoff at Kapalua.

We stay in Hawaii this week for one of the PGA Tour's longest-tenured events, the Sony Open at Waialae. This event is always fun and the short-by-modern-standards layout brings every type of golfer in the field into play. This course fact was touched on by former PGA Tour caddie Jason Gandy in a special episode of my fantasy golf podcast, The Turn, an interview which I hope you guys will check out!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

Sony Open Overview

Last week's limited field, no-cut format at Sentry TOC eased us into the 2021 season, but we get a "real" golf tournament this week with a full field of golfers and a 36-hole cut at the Sony Open.

The Sony Open is one of the PGA Tour's long-standing tournaments and is a mainstay on the January schedule. Due to the established nature of the event and its traditional placement the week after the Tournament of Champions - not to mention being held in paradise-like Hawaii - we normally see a fairly-strong field turn up.

While we do have some studs like Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama teeing it up - as well as Cameron Smith coming back to defend his Sony title - this week's field is perhaps most notable for who isn't in it, as Justin Thomas is a former winner of this event and has played in the Sony every year since 2015, but won't be teeing it up at Waialae Country Club this year. Remember, this article is sort of a "first look" at the week and highlights players with strong course history on this layout, so make sure to check out all of the other articles available at RotoBaller throughout the week (and the year) for our staff's favorite overall DFS plays!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Waialae Country Club

Par 70 - 7,044 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Seth Raynor

We get another beautiful Hawaiian golf course this week in Waialae Country Club, the long-time host of the Sony Open. It would be easy to lump this course in a similar bucket as last week's Kapalua layout, but that would be a huge mistake, as the courses are rather different. Waialae's fairways routinely rank as some of the toughest to hit on the PGA Tour (while Kapalua's fairways are hard to miss!), but missing these fairways isn't super penalizing, as player's will still find their ball in short grass more often than not.  For an extensive, in-depth look at Kapalua, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown, an article by Josh Bennett that uses Google Earth images to dissect every hole of this week's layout.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11) *Playoff
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17) *Playoff
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
• 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20) *Playoff

Notes From Last Year's Sony Open

• Windy and wet conditions made scoring much tougher last year, with Cam Smith's winning score of 11-under par being significantly off the normal Sony pace.
• The infamous grandstands on the 18th hole once again served as a "backstop" for players, as many in the field simply aimed for the stands in order to receive a free drop. No word yet on if the grandstands will be in place this year.
• This tournament took FOREVER to complete, with the wet conditions forcing the last few groups to seemingly play in slow motion down the stretch. Playing in the second-to-last group, Ryan Palmer launched one OB on the 72nd hole, but did not hit a provisional. By the time the search was ended and Palmer hit a penalty shot, poor Brendan Steele - who headed to the 72nd hole clinging to a one-shot lead - had been waiting for a ridiculous amount of time. Steele then hit a horrible shot and eventually made par, while Cameron Smith made birdie to tie and send things to a playoff.
• The Sony went to a playoff for the third time in the last five years, with Cameron Smith defeating Brendan Steele for the win.

The Horse

Webb Simpson

DraftKings: $11,100
FanDuel: $12,000

Notable Course History: 3rd (2020), T4 ('18), T13 ('17), Win ('17)

I was looking back at last year's Sony HFTC and, lo and behold, I had written Webb Simpson up as the Horse. While I try to keep things fresh for you guys, Simpson knocked out a third-place finish for us last year, so I'm rolling with the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" mindset here.

While there are certainly some strong players in this week's Sony field, Webb undoubtedly sticks out, not just for his pristine track record in this event, but also for his overall consistency of the last few years. He heads to Waialae off a T17 at last week's Sentry ToC, and has now posted two wins and seven top-10s over his last 20 PGA Tour starts, with just three finishes outside of the top-25 during that time period.

The light-hitting veteran profiles as a much better fit on this week's 7,044-yard layout than the nearly 7,600-yard Kapalua behemoth that he faced last week. His ability to find both fairways (second in the Sony field in Good Drives Gained over long-term measurements) and greens (14th in Greens In Regulation) will serve him well on this golf course. That fit has led him to gain 32.16 Strokes Total in this event since 2016 - the second-highest mark in the field.

The Ponies

Sungjae Im

DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $11,200

Notable Course History: T21 ('20), T16 ('19)

Sungjae’s course history at Waialae isn’t extensive, but it’s been solid enough over his two career Sony starts to include him in this week’s HFTC, as he sticks out as one of the top DFS options on the slate. Im suffered through a post-restart funk last year, but a runner-up performance at the Masters, coupled with a T5 last week at the Sentry ToC, indicate that he’s emerging from the doldrums that plagued him down the stretch last year.

The Korean led last week’s Sentry in SG: T2G, gaining a MASSIVE 9.5 strokes at Kapalua. Im was also impressive on Approach ( +5.1 strokes), but was held back by a balky putter that placed him 35th in the 42-man field in SG: Putting.

Bermuda greens like he’ll face this week at Waialae are historically Sungjae’s best putting surface, so there’s a strong chance that we see some improvement with the putter this week. If that’s the case, Im’s strong form T2G should put him squarely in contention at the Sony.

Ryan Palmer

DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $10,500

Notable Course History: T4 ('20), T58 ('18), MC ('17), T13 ('16), Win ('10)

Ryan Palmer’s history in the Sony Open is an interesting microcosm of his career as a whole...it’s been very up and down. In 14 career starts at Waialae, Palmer has accumulated a 68.98 scoring average, recording a victory in 2010, a top-10 in 2014, and a top-five outing last year. However, the Texan has also missed four Sony cuts in his career, which illustrates his overall lack of consistency. 

Palmer is undoubtedly a streaky player that’s tough to depend on, but it seems as though we’re catching him in good form this week. He’s coming in off an impressive fourth-place outing at last week’s Sentry ToC, a tournament where he gained just over six strokes on Approach and ranked fifth in SG: T2G for the tournament. The vet also closed out 2020 with a top-five at the ZOZO Championship, so while there’s some inherent volatility that comes with rostering him, his game appears to be in a good place at the moment. 

It will be interesting to see where Palmer's ownership shakes out on DK this week, where he's priced up to $9.2k for the Sony. He was $7k last week for the Sentry, and while this week's field is substantially weaker, it's most likely a sharp enough bump to scare some people away.

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Charles Howell III

DraftKings: $8,000
FanDuel: $9,700

Notable Course History: T12 ('20), T8 ('19), T32 ('18), T8 ('17), T13 ('16)

There are few certainties in life, but death, taxes, and Charles Howell III playing well to start the calendar year are some you can count on. CH3 has been a beast both in Hawaii and California throughout his lengthy career. He leads all players in this week’s field in Strokes Gained: Total (35.2) since 2016 and he’s amassed a 67.57 career scoring average in the Sony, the highest in the field among those with more than one career start. 

It’s tough to judge Howell with any recent statistical models, as he’s historically been a drastically different player in Hawaii/West Coast Swing events vs basically everywhere else. The 41-year-old has logged 96 top-10s over his impressive career, with an astounding 10 of those coming at the Sony Open! He closed out 2020 in middling form, but he’s the definition of a “Course Horse” in this spot.

Brian Harman

DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $9,600

Notable Course History: T32 ('20), MC ('19), T4 ('18), T20 ('17), T13 ('16)

The Sony fits the “hit it straight, hit lots of greens, and plod along” mold better than most courses we see on the modern PGA Tour schedule. This type of layout brings the entire field into play and bumps a player like Brian Harman into serious consideration. 

Harman isn’t a player that we can target on some of golf’s modern-day behemoth tracks, but his style still fits on a layout like Waialae. That’s reflected in his track record at the Sony, as he’s made the cut in eight of nine career starts on this golf course, with four top-20s spread over those appearances. 

In addition to the course history, the vet closed out 2020 in rock-solid form, gaining strokes on Approach in each of his last seven ‘20 starts, with just one missed cut against four top-25s since August.

Russell Knox

DraftKings: $7,400
FanDuel: $9,100

Notable Course History: T32 ('20), T43 ('19), T10 ('18), T11 ('17), MC ('16)

As we move down the salary scale we must be willing to embrace some volatility this week. Russell Knox is an intriguing option at $7.4k due to his combination of solid course history at Waialae and flashes of form during the swing season.

After missing the cut in his first three career starts at the Sony, Knox has settled in nicely at the Hawaiian layout, making the cut in five of his subsequent six starts and logging three finishes inside the top-13 since 2015. After a disastrous summer, we saw him rebound a bit during the Swing Season. Knox was erratic - missing three cuts in seven starts since September - but also demonstrated some upside by posting a top-10 at the Safeway and three additional top-25s to close out the year. He's definitely a "boom or bust" prospect, but the bottom of this week's salary scale is fairly spotty, so Knox profiles as a viable GPP option.

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