Overvalued RB Handcuffs Getting Too Expensive

Antonio Losada looks at NFL backfields and highlights the name of three popular handcuff RBs that are getting too expensive given their current ADPs and potential ROI.

Who doesn't love to draft a player late and see him blossom into a league winner? That can often be the case with running back handcuffs covering for starters that fall down to injury or enter the season holding out. Drafting a no. 2 running back late, or even getting him from waivers close to (or for) nothing can turn into a league-changing move.

I have already said it in the paragraph above: the key for those players to be truly valuable is getting them as late as possible, for the cheapest of payments. The problem? Sometimes fantasy GMs put so much into those handcuffs turning into league winners that their prices skyrocket and their values plummet given their all-or-nothing profiles.

With the season getting closer and the summer getting hotter it is time to hand some names out worth avoiding in your drafts at the prices they're currently going for. Let's get to it!

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J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Paying a second-round pick for a backup running back is no joke. The Ravens did not draft J.K. Dobbins to stick him at the end of the bench for long, that's for sure. But they didn't draft Dobbins to be their go-to rusher starting this season, either. While Dobbins is definitely one of the best running backs of the 2020 class, he will be slotted as the RB2 in Baltimore's depth chart behind Mark Ingram. In reality, though, the situation is even worse for the rookie as he'd need to deal with Lamar Jackson running with the football himself.

As we're talking about handcuffs here, we have to assume Ingram would somehow, for some reason, go down at some point during the season. If that actually happens, some carries will definitely free for Dobbins to take care of, but even with that Jackson projects (per PFF) to rush the ball 148 times in 2020. That volume of carries is on par with that of some RB1 players around the league... and we're assuming Ingram would be decisively out of the field.

The ceiling might be high as the Ravens offense is dynamic and offers some high upside, but the floor for Dobbins looks truly horrific and should scare you (reasonably) off drafting the newcomer. That doesn't seem to be the case these days with most fantasy GMs, though, as he's getting off the board as the RB30 (ADP 61), even though he's projected to finish the year with just 111.2 PPR points and a 135th overall rank.

More valuable RBs around Dobbin's ADP: Chris Carson (58.4), James Conner (55.6), D'Andre Swift (58.6), Devin Singletary (68.4).  

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

The ultimate handcuff, isn't he? Dalvin Cook is, as we last heard of him, holding out for the start of the year if Minnesota doesn't offer him a new deal. That's the last news to have come our way this summer about Cook and the Vikings backfield. Next in line to take his place, Alex Mattison. And it is not that Mattison is new around these places.

Last season we had a very similar situation between these two players, only the main reason that made Mattison a sought-after handcuff was Cook's shaky injury history. Then, injuries didn't come and Mattison was a meh handcuff if anything at all. He played 13 games, carried the ball exactly 100 times and reached 462 yards while scoring a touchdown. He also racked up 82 yards on 10 receptions. Not bad for his role, but bad indeed for someone getting off the 2019 draft boards with an ADP of 157.4 (he finished as the 224th-best player overall).

This year, Mattison is being drafted much earlier with an ADP of 120.7 (virtual 10th round) as the RB37 off the board (basically an RB3 in your lineup). PFF has Mattison projected to 96.3 PPR points in the season, and while that mark should go up with Cook out it is very hard to see the running back missing the whole season. The best-case scenario for Mattison is an Ekeler-like year in which Cook is absent three, four, or five games at most. Even with that, he will be ultra-relegated in short time so it makes no sense spending a very high pick on the sophomore.

More valuable RBs around Mattison's ADP: Tarik Cohen (125.2), James White (117.3), Sony Michel (115.4), Kerryon Johnson (119.4)

Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

I am assuming rookie Clyde Edwards-Elaire will be the Chiefs starting running back in 2020, as that is what fantasy GMs are making of him this summer. Edwards-Elaire's ADP of 25.2 is way more expensive than that of Williams (110.2), and they're currently the RB14 and RB31 off the board. Handcuffing Williams to CEE means that the rookie could struggle during the first few weeks, leaving the backfield's door open for Williams to take on RB1 duties.

Even with that, I find it hard to believe in Williams as a booming option to draft with a top-10 round pick (let alone CEE inside the first two rounds...). Last season, a Chiefs player finished as a top-24 performer in a given week 16 times over the year, and only in five weeks two of them did it in the same game. Damien Williams (once) was the only running back of the team to achieve the feat, in Week 17. Up to six players finished as top-24 performers at some point.

What I mean is that while Kansas City has an offense that can destroy anyone and make any and every play part of it a 30+ PPR scorer any week, it seems like those performances come on a very random pattern not worth pursuing on purpose. Although Williams was the leader of the Chiefs backfield last season, every week it was one of him, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson, or LeSean McCoy getting away with the highest fantasy points tally without much consistency. Even if CEE misses time, or is deemed the RB2 behind Williams, chances are both of them rack up points at least at the same pace. Williams might not be the worst late-round flier, but he's definitely not a handcuff expected to become a cowbell no matter what happens in Kansas City.

More valuable RBs around Williams' ADP: Jordan Howard (117.2), Sony Michel (115.4), James White (117.3)

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