KBO Betting Picks (7/2/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

July 1, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 7/2/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.

We were a Kia walk-off grand slam away from a sweep. The Tigers won the game but our runline suffered because of it. However, NC took care of business early, while KT exploded for 11 runs giving us a winning day. It was one of the more exciting days of the KBO recently.

• Wednesday, July 1: 2-1
• 2020 KBO Season: 69-40-1 (62.7%)

I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.

Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Thursday, July 2nd starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.

Doosan Bears (-127) at Kiwoom Heroes

O/U: 11.5

Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Jong-gi Park (1-1, 2.81 ERA)
Kiwoom: Young-gun Cho (1-1, 6.87 ERA)

Doosan made up for the two-spot they put up Tuesday by dropping 14 on Kiwoom Wednesday. Sure, 14 came in their first two trips to the plate, but that is the offense we've come to know (and target on the road). Four batters had at least two RBI and every slot in the starting lineup registered a hit. Somehow they continue to grow their average runs per game total on the road, now at 7.5 rpg. The Bears time up RHP at a .299 clip, mainly thanks to lefty hitters like Jose Fernandez, Jae-il Oh, Joo-hwan Choi, and Jae-hwan Kim.

Young-gun Cho has yet to finish four complete innings in any of his five starts and even when he's out there, he's not exactly producing. An 8/13 K/BB over 18.1 innings is awful and he's also given up four homers, including two against  Kia his last time out. If he qualified for pitching leaderboards, his 7.66 FIP would be the worst in the KBO, so the righty really has been that bad, but it's still such a small sample.

Doosan is a wagon on the road. Sure, they have their fall flat moments just like any other team, nor one should expect them to score 14 runs every day. However, a matchup against a struggling righty is prime real estate for a lineup of this caliber.

Pick: Doosan Team Total Over 5.5 (-127, Draftkings Sportbook)

KT Wiz at LG Twins (-174)

O/U: 9.5

Probable Pitchers
KT: Byeong-uk Jo (0-0, 3.55 ERA)
LG: Casey Kelly (3-3, 5.12 ERA)

KT is pretty good at putting up crooked numbers and Wednesday was no different, winning 11-5. They scored at least three runs in three separate innings and someone other than Mel Rojas Jr. did all the work! Rojas still collected three hits, but Baek-ho Kang drove in four while Jae-Gyun Hwang and Han-joon Yoo each drove in a pair. The Wiz hit RHP at a .277 clip so there's some room for improvement but they're still in the top half of the league.

The Wiz get Byeong-uk Jo on the bump and he'll make his second career start and fourth appearance of the season. The former policeman's only other start was against SK where he went 5.1 innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two strikeouts and walks apiece. He's thrown just 12.3 innings this season so it's hard to get a real gauge for him, but facing an experienced lineup like LG, he'll certainly get a test.

The LG Twins scored five runs Wednesday and that tied the most runs they've scored in any of their nine game prior. However, none of the production came from the heart of the order. Roberto Ramos and Hyun-soo Kim went hitless while the eight and nine-hole hitters drove in four runs themselves. This is a veteran lineup that is sure to break out of the slump they're in; just 2.9 rpg over their L10, including just two home runs. They hit righties to a .270 clip and bat .280 as the hosts; but it seems like missing Sung-kim Min and Yong-taik Park due to injury has taken a bigger toll than expected.

Casey Kelly has been quite a let down in 2020 after a stellar 2019 campaign. His ERA is almost three points higher and the next two home runs he allows with tie him with his total from all of last season. He's mightily struggled the first time through the lineup, allowing 18 of the 31 runs against him in the first three innings. Granted he's finished at least six innings seven of his nine starts, he clearly settles down. However, the American has given up a home run in five straight starts with four of them coming at home, so he'll need to emphasize keeping the ball in the yard against KT.

What we saw from KT on Wednesday was exactly what I expected. Sure, Kelly is a much better arm but his struggles early on in starts this season are documented. On the other side, this is the game that LG busts out of their slump and takes it to an inexperienced righty.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-120, Draftkings Sportsbook)

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