RADIO
Situation is key in fantasy. This is especially the case for rookies looking to make an instant splash in the NFL.
For many of us fantasy football competitors watching the 2020 NFL Draft, we were rooting for the rookie receivers to fall into situations where they can be properly utilized. In many ways, that happened. Most of the early wide receivers taken will have the opportunity to shine in 2020, but even a few players drafted later may also be able to carve out a substantial role in their respective offenses.
Here’s a look at rookie WRs who could actually have an impact in 2020, in order of projected fantasy production.
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1. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Many of you are saying, “The Cowboys have Gallup and Cooper, so where does Lamb get his?” Ceedee Lamb will come in and be immediately better than Michael Gallup, and I believe his usage will be that as a starter in year one. Ceedee Lamb was drafted into the best situation among the rookies at the position. I had Lamb as the top receiving prospect in college, and he’s coming into Dallas as likely the second-most talented receiver on the offense.
Lamb ran 40% of his routes from the slot at Oklahoma in 2019 and had 35 targets, 25 receptions, and seven touchdowns. He’s likely going to work out of the slot a majority of the time and stands a chance to work outside on two-receiver sets, assuming he can overtake Michael Gallup as the team’s number two receiver.
Lamb joins the most productive offense in the NFL with a young secondary, which means the Cowboys could be involved in a lot of high-scoring games. All the signs are there for a big rookie season.
2. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
With Stefon Diggs being traded to Buffalo, the Vikings were able to go younger at the position and reduce the drama at the position as well. Justin Jefferson was a huge weapon at LSU in 2019. His numbers were incredible, and his skill set should make him the second or third most NFL-ready receiver in this class.
Though the Vikings may be leaning slightly more on the run game in 2020, Jefferson should be able to secure the number two receiver role in the offense immediately. His volume should be pretty steady in 2020 as the Vikings will look to compete for the division title in 2020. Jefferson should be a tough matchup for number two corners in the NFL and has a chance to be extremely productive.
3. Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Reagor may have been the number two guy on this list, due to the offensive schemes of the Eagles and their passing rates. The only thing keeping him in the three spot is the concern surrounding his early role in the offense.
If DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, Reagor may be off to a very slow start in Philadelphia. The Eagles also favor two-tight end sets, which could limit Reagor’s snaps, as he would need to leapfrog either Jackson or Jeffrey to get in more snaps.
Reagor was my fourth favorite receiving prospect coming out of college. He ran 84% of his routes from the outside, 14% from the slot, and 2% out of the backfield (per Ben Fennell at NFL Network). The Eagles love to push tight ends out wide to cause matchup issues, leaving two receivers the opportunity to work close to the line. Reagor will likely be lined up all over the place and should eventually work his way up in snaps by the end of the season.
4. Denzel Mims, New York Jets
Denzel Mims is a bodied, athletic outside receiver. His big knock coming out of college has been his drops. I’ve seen a lot of film where he makes some incredible catches, demonstrating balance, body-control, field awareness, and incredible athleticism.
Mims is a tall, fast, weapon the Jets will surely be able use immediately. Last season, Robby Anderson had 52 receptions for 779 receiving yards and five touchdowns. With Anderson gone and the offensive line improved, I think it’s realistic to expect 100 targets for Mims this season with an expected finish around WR30 this season.
5. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
I love Higgins from a talent standpoint. He’s similar to Denzel Mims from a build perspective, but a little less explosive. In the right situation, I’d have Higgins near the top of this list, but the landing spot for Higgins isn’t ideal for a year one breakout. Part of this article is taking into consideration the health of the other receivers on each team, so it’s worth noting, if A.J. Green can’t stay healthy, the door would be open for Higgins to have a substantial impact.
Green is the undisputed one in this offense, while Tyler Boyd is the outright second guy in the passing game. Boyd works out of the slot, so there’s a chance Higgins could start immediately, assuming he can displace Auden Tate from the other starting role. The assumption with the Bengals is that they will construct an offense similar to what Joe Burrow ran at LSU.
At this point, it’s all we can hope for. Regardless, Higgins should get a decent amount of work in his first season when it’s all said and done. The perceived volume and assumption he will be a starter at some point in the season, should result in a late season push in a blossoming offense that will have fantasy owners scrambling for Higgins in re-draft leagues.
6. Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy is the most polished receiver in this class, to me. Unfortunately, he’s been drafted into a situation where the passing volume is low. Even though Jeudy should come in and be the immediate number two receiver, the high snap count won’t translate.
The team has a bona fide WR1 (Cortland Sutton), a young and talented tight end (Noah Fant), and a big free agent signing at running back (Melvin Gordon). Drew Lock only broke the 200-yard passing mark in one of his five games started in 2019. He averaged just 204 yards passing per game. Compare that to David Blough of the Lions, who also started five games and averaged 196 yards passing per game. Lock’s numbers, when projected out for an entire season are around 22 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and 3,300 yards.
Sure, you’re probably thinking, “He was a rookie and they didn’t want to put a lot on his plate.” That’s fair, but if you think the Broncos are planning on leaning more on Lock this season, just realize the team went 4-1 with Lock starting, and then consider why a coach would move off this formula. This is a run-first team and despite how Jeudy may be the most polished receiver in this class, the volume ceiling isn’t high.
7. Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
Ruggs is a burner, but as far as production is concerned, he was definitely not the top guy at Alabama. He profiles very similarly to Mecole Hardman coming out of college, which is why I was even more confused he went first among the receivers. His best seasons in college resulted in only 46 and 40 receptions, but expect the Raiders to try to get him the ball through screens, quick slants, and the occasional deep ball.
Despite the lack of overall college production, Ruggs was extremely dangerous with the ball in his hands. Ruggs may get a handful of deep balls this year, but it’s going to pay off for him. The volume is the big question here, as Bryan Edwards should also compete for a starting role as an outside receiver at some point.
The Raiders are still very run-focused and the presence of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow really take away from the ceiling of Ruggs in year one. The lack of camp time will hurt Ruggs as well, as he still lacks the overall polish at the position to be able to come in and make an immediate impact, but the speed is undeniable. His big play upside will serve well in best ball leagues and inflate his overall performance perception, but consistency may be hard to come by early on.
8. Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens
Duvernay makes this list based on a couple things. First, the Ravens had 19 touchdown receptions to receivers out of the slot in 2019. Now, I get the majority of those were to tight ends, but Willie Snead had five of them. Snead was also heavily involved in the playoff loss to the Titans. He was targeted eight times in that game and had six receptions for 56 yards. He also had a few key drops.
Duvernay is faster, reliable, and should come in and be able to make an immediate impact in this offense. I expect Duvernay to take over the primary slot receiver role, and his speed and dependability should make him a viable weapon in the offense.
The concern is volume, as the Ravens tend to keep a relatively low passing volume and favor the tight ends. He’s definitely a wildcard in 2020, but similarly to Ruggs, I expect he will have a handful of big plays and could carve out a decent role in the Ravens’ dynamic attack.
9. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk is the YAC king coming out of Arizona State. He’s widely considered one of the best prospects with the ball in his hands among all those in this class. Unfortunately, Aiyuk is limited in his route running ability and struggles against the press. The upside here is the 49ers' schemes. Aiyuk should get a decent dose of touches near the line of scrimmage, so his value should be leveled when you work his lack of intermediate route running into the projection.
Aiyuk will be somewhat of a specialty weapon in the offense and probably won’t be a high-volume guy, but he should provide a decent amount of big plays throughout the season in San Francisco.
10. K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos
I mentioned earlier the quarterback and philosophy in Denver makes Jerry Jeudy less appealing. The same goes for KJ Hamler. Hamler is an explosive speedster who should find success in the slot, but he’s probably going to be the fourth or fifth option in a run-focused offense in 2020.
He should be able to assume the slot role in Denver, but unless we see a change in schemes, Hamler’s volume doesn’t warrant much appeal in 2020.
11. Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
Edwards is a solid prospect out of South Carolina. He’s a big bodied receiver at 6’3 and 220 pounds with amazing hands. Unfortunately, he’s in a situation now where he’s going to be likely the fourth guy on the depth chart and will have to battle Henry Ruggs or Tyrell Williams on the outside for a starting job. He’s also stuck in a system with a quarterback who doesn’t push the ball down the field.
At this point, Edwards is a stash, but injuries in the depth chart and a change in philosophy would need to occur for him to have a substantial impact in 2020 and I just don’t see it happening.
12. Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Pittman is stuck behind T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Zach Pascal in the offense. He’s a solid prospect, but the landing spot has him buried in the depth chart.
I wouldn’t anticipate much from him in year one, and beyond that, the quarterback situation in Indianapolis leaves me uneasy about his future. It also doesn’t help the Colts went after another running back early in Jonathan Taylor, indicating they are committed to being a run-first team behind a solid offensive line.
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