LEC League of Legends DFS Picks for 3/28/20 - FanDuel, DraftKings Daily Fantasy

Dan Palyo's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LEC DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 3/28/20. He discusses the LEC LoL slates and his top targets.

Welcome to RotoBaller's coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Hopefully, you've been following our coverage of the LPL/LCK overnight slates on DraftKings. Today, I will be focusing on the five-game LEC slate that has contests available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Full disclosure here, I am a relative newcomer to Esports as far as being an analyst and I was not someone who was playing LoL contests on a daily basis before COVID-19 ravaged the world and closed the more traditional sports leagues for the foreseeable future. However, I have had a decent amount of success playing these contests and applying some simple strategy and DFS tactics that would apply in other sports (weighing Vegas odds, stacking teams, looking for leverage in GPPs). If you're new to Esports, then I highly suggest playing some smaller contests and dipping your toes in the pool so to speak before diving in the deep end of some of the larger tournaments that we are seeing both sites post.

The LEC is the European league and they play only single games (while LPL and LCK play best of three series). Today's matches are the final matches of regular-season games before playoffs begin. While we already know which six teams will make the playoffs, but there is still seeding that can change based on today's results.

Today we'll be bringing on our top League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for all the LEC slates on Saturday at 12:00 PM, March 28th, 2020. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LoL mentor and our RotoBaller lead Esports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!

League of Legends DFS Basics

I am stealing most of these tips from our lead analyst, Jason Malmanger. Since LEC contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.

1. Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. 
2. 2. Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
3. In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
4. Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring.  Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
5. Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID.  Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP.  Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.

Now onto the games!

12:00 PM: Rogue (-245) vs FCS

Rogue was a massive disappointment on Friday, losing to one of the worst teams in the league and now have to win and hope for both MAD and Misfits to both lose in order to force a playoff for the fourth seed. Their opponent is much more respectable today as they face a five-win FCS team and their odds reflect that tougher matchup. I have some interest in this game, but it's not my favorite to target by any means. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in combined kills per game, meaning we could get a less bloody game here than in other matchups. Once again, Rogue is cheap on FanDuel, and they are at least a better value on Draftkings than they were yesterday. 

ROGUE: Hans sama - ADC, Inspired - JNG, Larssen - MID

Meanwhile, FCS held their ground for most of their game against G2 on Friday and are one of the underdogs on this slate that I am interested in using. They two really solid players at MID and ADC in Abbedage and Innaxe. Both had solid fantasy outings even in a loss against G2, but their roster drops off pretty quickly after that.

FCS: Abbedage - MID, Innaxe - ADC

1:00 PM: SKG vs Excel (-275)

I hate just totally crossing a game off, but I really don't have much interest in this one. Neither of these teams has anything to play for, which honestly could be good for fantasy if they just go out and try to rack up kills. SKG pulled off a big upset on Friday against Rogue, but who knows if they can do it again, and Excel was just demoralized by Origen. This feels like it's more likely an uneventful meaningless game than anything, so I'll just fade it and make this a four-game slate. 

2:00 PM: MAD vs Origen (-225)

Now, here we have a game that really interests me. MAD lost to Fnatic on Friday and dropped to 10-7. They are now tied with Misfits for fourth place and would drop to fifth place with a loss and a Misfits win. They have another tough matchup today against a really good OG squad. OG is not flashy by any means and they often win in relatively boring fashion, however, we could see MAD push them enough here into more fights than they usually do. Origen needs a win to keep pace with Fnatic for the #2 seed and Fnatic has a much easier opponent.

MAD: Kaiser - SUP, Carzzy - ADC, Shadow - JNG, Humanoid - MID 

Once again, MAD is a great value stack on Draftkings when you look at how they were priced over there. Using them as a secondary stack will allow you to pay up for G2 or Fnatic. I don't know if they can pull off this upset, but they have as much upside as any underdog on this slate.

Origen: Upset - ADC, Xerxe - JNG, Nukeduck - MID, Destiny - SUP 

Upset and Destiny were an excellent two-man stack on Friday and they are my favorite OG duo again today. Destiny is too cheap on Draftkings where he's the fifth-most expensive SUP on the slate despite being the second-most-expensive on FanDuel. Xerxe is one of the better junglers on the slate, too. It's pretty easy to fit an OG stack in on FanDuel and Draftkings and I plan on having a lot of exposure.

3:00 PM: Fnatic (-1400) vs Vitality

Fnatic checks in as the biggest favorite on the slate and they make a fine target on both sites in all formats. They were excellent on Friday in their triumph over MAD and they have the easiest matchup on the slate against one-win Vitality here today. Like I mentioned earlier, they need to win in order to keep pace with Origen for the #2 seed, which would be theirs for the taking if they won and Origen lost to MAD.

Fnatic: Reckles - ADC, Bwipo - TOP, Nemesis - MID, Hylissang - SUP

Reckles is the most expensive player on the FanDuel slate, but for good reason, as he leads all ADCs in kills this season and trails only Caps in kill participation rate. Bwipo is my favorite TOP on the slate, while Nemesis and Hylissang make for solid third and fourth pieces of a FNC stack, too.

4:00 PM: G2 (-400) vs Misfits

Our final game here is between the top dogs G2 and the current fourth-seed (tied with MAD) Misfits. G2 has already locked up the #1 seed, so how they approach this game should be interesting. They could just goof off and end up losing to Misfits, or they could also decide to go for blood and have an all-out war with them. Misfits handed them one of their three losses this season back in February and so G2 may want to avenge that loss and send a message. This game means more to Misfits' seeding as they could hang onto the fourth seed if MAD loses to Origen, but their ultimate reward would just be another matchup with G2 in round one, ha!

G2: Caps - ADC, Mikyz - SUP, Jankos - JNG, Perkz - MID, Wunder -TOP

The entire lineup is fully in play here, and I think it would be prudent to stack up G2 in at least a couple of lineups if you are multi-entering. Yes, they are pricey, but they have the most upside of any LEC team on any slate.

Misfits: Bvoy - ADC, Dan Dan - TOP, Razork - JNG

If the Misfits are going to pull it out, it's likely on the back of big performances from Bvoy and Razork. Dan Dan had a five-kill and five-assist game in Misfits win over G2 the first time around and is one of the few top-laners I like on this slate other than Bwipo and Wunder.

Summary

1. Never fade G2 on any LEC slate, even if we think they have nothing to play for they could still break the slate.
2. Fnatic makes for great cash plays.
3. Origen is one of my favorite GPP teams to stack.

Check back throughout the weekend as we'll publish more Esports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.

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