Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 9 Analysis

November 7, 2019

Phil Clark looks back at Week 9 targets, snaps, receptions trends for fantasy football WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-lows or sell-highs.

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As the season unfolds, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which is designed to help you fulfill your championship aspirations.

This will be the ninth installment that examines game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

This week’s article will be functioning with nine weeks of data, which bolsters the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated. As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

Week 9 Target Leaders  

DeAndre Hopkins’ 92 targets exceed the total of all other wide receivers, while Julian Edelman has vaulted into second overall (90). No other receiver has attained 90+ targets, although five other players have collected 80+ - Michael Thomas (89), Cooper Kupp (87), Keenan Allen (84), Mike Evans (83), and Tyler Boyd (83). Julio Jones (74), Tyler Lockett (72), Chris Godwin (72), Allen Robinson (71), and D.J. Chark (70), complete the list of 12 receivers that have captured at least 70 targets through Week 9.

Lockett’s 72 targets have already surpassed his previous career-best which had been established in 2018 (70). That is just one of his numbers that will be examined further in the 5 Things I Noticed Section.

Edelman also leads all wide receivers with 49 targets over the past four weeks. He is followed by Hopkins (48), and Evans (45) as the only receivers who have collected 40+. Lockett (36), Golden Tate (36), Thomas (34), Marvin Jones (33), D.J. Chark (33), and Tyreek Hill (32) lead a group of 14 receivers that have attained 30+.

The 28 targets that Mike Evans has stockpiled during his last two matchups have raised his target-per-game average by exactly two yards (8.4/10.4). That is also the highest two-week total at his position. That was followed by Hopkins and Lockett (24), Landry (23), Edelman (22), Chark (21), D.J. Moore (19) and Mohamed Sanu (19).

Hopkins, Edelman, and Thomas have all registered 11+ targets in four consecutive contests, while Evans and Landry have received 10+ in two straight games. Thomas and Edelman have both collected 10+ targets in six different matchups, while Hopkins, Kupp, Allen, and Boyd have accomplished it five times.

Largest Weekly Changes 

Exactly 10 receivers were targeted at least 10 times in Week 9, while several of those players established or tied their career highs in the process. Lockett performed in 63 games from 2015 to 2018 yet never reached a double-digit target total. But he has now accomplished it three times this season, including the career-best 18 that he attained in Week 9.

That was the largest weekly total among all wide receivers, followed by Mike Evans (16), Mohamed Sanu (14), Jarvis Landry (13), Davante Adams (11), Julian Edelman (11), DeAndre Hopkins (11), and Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and D.J. Moore with 10.

Lockett’s 18 targets represented a substantial rise from his Week 8 total (+12), which resulted in the largest increase of the week. Sanu was second with a surge of +9, following his season-best total of 14. Marvin Jones’ weekly totals have fluctuated significantly during his last four matchups (5/13/5/10), which includes this week’s third-largest rise +5. A collection of seven receivers were next with increases of +4 - Jamison Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Zach Pascal.

Just one week after Christian Kirk eclipsed double-digits for the third time this season (11), Kirk received a season-low five targets in Week 9. That tied him with Keenan Allen for the largest decline of the week (-6), after Allen was limited to a season-low four targets. Allen's usage and production will be examined in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Curtis Samuel and Cole Beasley both experienced a drop of -5, while the weekly totals for Golden Tate and JuJu Smith-Schuster decreased by -4. Stefon Diggs, D.J. Chark, and Danny Amendola all registered declines of -3.

Sanu's 14 targets extended his season total to 61. If he were to continue at his current 6.8 per-game average, then the eight-year veteran would surpass his career-high of 96. However, he should encounter competition for targets from N'Keal Harry, who should become increasingly involved in the upcoming weeks.

Tyreek Hill has now accumulated 32 targets since his Week 6 return (10/5/9/8). His current 7.0 per-game average is nearly two targets fewer than the career-best 8.6 that he attained during 2018.

Week 9 Yards-Per-Target Leaders

Stefon Diggs leads all receivers in yards-per-target 13.4 followed by Kenny Stills 13.1. Amari Cooper is the only other receiver who is exceeded 12 (12.4), while Zach Pascal (11.9), Mecole Hardman (11.7), and Hardman's teammate Tyreek Hill 11.4 are all averaging 11+. Tyler Lockett (10.7) spearheads a group of 11 receivers that are averaging at least 10 yards per target -  Chris Godwin,  A.J. Brown, Tyrell Williams, Kenny Golladay, Keelan Cole, Courtland Sutton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mike Evans, John Brown, and Chris Conley.

Pascal's 11.9 average has been constructed with an average of  10.3  or more in four different contests. That includes the 12.7 yard-per-target average that he attained in Week 9. Lockett has averaged at least 12.8 yards-per-target in five different contests, which has propelled him to the overall 10.7 average.  Emmanuel Sanders registered a season-worst 5.0 yards-per-target average in Week 8. But in Week 9, Sanders’ averaged a season-best 12.4 per-target.

Kenny Golladay leads all receivers in average depth of target (aDOT) among players that have been targeted 40+ times (16.4). Curtis Samuel is second (15.5), followed by Chris Conley (15.3), Stefon Diggs (15.4), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15.1), (15), Tyrell Williams (15), Mike Williams (14.8), Robby Anderson (14.5), and DeVante Parker (14.3).

Week 9 Targeted Air Yards Leaders 

Kenny Golladay now leads all wide receivers in targeted air yards (17), followed by Darius Slayton (16.7), James Washington (16.6), Mike Evans (15.8), Tyreek Hill (15.8), Curtis Samuel (15.7), Chris Conley (15.4), Mike Williams (15.2), and Robby Anderson (15). Nine receivers are averaging a percentage of 14+ - Stefon Diggs (14.9), Tyrell Williams (14.9), Ted Ginn (14.7), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (14.7), DeVante Parker (14.6), Demarcus Robinson (14.5), John Brown (14.5), Brandin Cooks (14.4), Preston Williams (14.3), and D.K. Metcalf (14.2).

Evans leads the league in air yards (1,268), followed by Golladay (1,017), Keenan Allen (1,010), Samuel (944), DeAndre Hopkins (932), Julio Jones (927), D.J. Chark (912), Preston Williams (875), John Brown (846), Courtland Sutton (825), and Stefon Diggs (816) completing the top 10. Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, and Marvin Jones are among the 12 additional receivers that have accumulated 700+ through nine weeks.

% Share Of Team’s Air Yards Leaders

Courtland Sutton has emerged as the new leader in percentage share of the team’s air yards (44.1). This is not particularly surprising considering the dearth of competition for targets that now exists on the Broncos. Stefon Diggs is second (43.7), followed by Allen Robinson (41.4), Mike Evans (40.75), Terry McLaurin (40.2), Michael Thomas (40.1), Robby Anderson (39.75), John Brown (39.3), Curtis Samuel (38.43), D.J. Chark (37.11), DeAndre Hopkins (35.08), Keenan Allen (35.1), Julio Jones (34.81), Odell Beckham (34.0), and Preston Willians (33.07).

As Cincinnati returns to game action in Week 10, Tyler Boyd leads the Bengals in this category (29.7). He is followed closely by Auden Tate (25.4) while Alex Erickson is third (15.0). We still await the return of A. J. Green which would alter the composition of these percentages. Marquez Valdes-Scantling currently leads the Packers 25.4 while Davante Adams is second 20.5. But Adams will capture a higher percentage as the weeks progress.

Among Kansas City wide receivers, Demarcus Robinson’19.4 percentage is slightly beyond Tyreek Hill’s 18.5, and Sammy Watkins’ 17.8. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs at 23.8. Keenan Allen leads the Chargers with a 35.1% share, while Mike Williams is second (27.2). Their recent usage and production will be discussed further in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Week 9 Red Zone Target Leaders 

Julian Edelman leads all receivers with 18 red zone targets. This is the second consecutive week in which Edelman has paced his position, after collecting 12 during his last three matchups. Mike Evans is second overall (15), followed by Tyler Lockett (14), Michael Thomas (13), Arden Tate (13), D.K. Metcalf (12), and four receivers that have captured 11 red zone targets - Courtland Sutton, Kenny Golladay, Golladay‘s teammate Marvin Jones, and Sutton‘s former teammate Emmanuel Sanders.

Six other receivers have attained 10 red zone targets - Cooper Kupp, D.J. Chark, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Mike Williams, and Preston Williams - even though he has experienced the unfortunate knee injury. Chris Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins lead a group of four receivers that have been targeted nine times through Week 9.

Tyler Lockett led all receivers in red zone targets during Week 9 by capturing five during the Seahawks' matchup with Tampa Bay. Edelman and Jamison Crowder were both targeted four times during their contests, while Jarvis Landry, Preston Williams, and Golden Tate attained three. Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay led a collection of 12 receivers that were targeted twice.

Golladay has now led all receivers with nine targets inside the 10 for two consecutive weeks. Evans, Edelman, Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, Arden Tate, and Sanders have all collected seven targets, while Godwin, Marvin Jones, Terry McLaurin, and T.Y. Hilton have been targeted six times. 

Week 9 Snap Count Leaders

Two wide receivers have performed on 600+ snaps, as DeAndre Hopkins leads the league with 629, followed by Tyler Lockett with 604. Julian Edelman is next (585), followed by Nelson Agholor (577), Chris Godwin (562), Robert Woods (540), Courtland Sutton (540), Odell Beckham (529), Mike Evans (528) and Keenan Allen (520) completing the top 10.

Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Thomas, and D.K. Metcalf are next (513), followed by Jarvis Landry (512) and Tyler Boyd (508). No other wide receivers have played on 500+ snaps.

Hopkins also leads his position in offensive snap percentage (97.5), followed by Beckham (97.2), Godwin (95.7), Landry (94.1), Woods (94.1), Lockett (93.8), Thomas (93.2), Allen Robinson (92.7), Robby Anderson (92.6), Sutton (92.0), Moore (90.9), and Boyd (90.6).

Five different receivers performed on 100% of their teams' offensive snaps in Week 9 - Hopkins, Edelman, Sanu, Tyreek Hill, and Terry McLaurin. Phillip Dorsett was next (98.5), followed by Christian Kirk (96.5), Godwin (96.2), Anderson (95.7), Robinson (95.6), Chark (95.5), Larry Fitzgerald (94.7), Cleveland teammates Beckham and Landry (94.7), and D.K. Metcalf (94.7).

After averaging 28.6 snaps from Weeks 1-3, Zach Pascal has averaged 52 during his last five contests. That number rose to 62 in Weeks 8/9. Demarcus Robinson played on at least 91% of Kansas City’s snaps from Weeks 2-5, but that percentage has steadily declined. Each of his last three counts established new season lows, including the 40% that he attained in Week 9.

Five Things I Noticed

1, Josh Gordon’s impending debut with the Seahawks could potentially transpire this week. At age 28, Gordon still possesses enough talent to boost the already burgeoning capabilities of Seattle’s ninth-ranked passing attack.

The Seahawks have already generated a league-high 22 touchdowns through the air, and Gordon will blend favorably with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to enhance Russell Wilson’s already potent arsenal of receiving weaponry. But even though the addition of Gordon will be beneficial for the Seahawks, he will not alter Lockett’s role as Seattle’s WR1, nor should his presence negatively impact Metcalf. Lockett is in the process of ascending into the league’s select group of elite receivers. His 72 targets have already surpassed his previous career-best, which was mentioned in the weekly target leader section (2018-70). Lockett is currently fourth overall with a career-high 59 receptions and is also fourth in receiving yards (767). His 85.2 yard-per-game average is seventh overall and is 25 yards higher than his previous best (60.3).

Metcalf also continues to assemble encouraging numbers during his first season, as he leads the Seahawks in average depth of target (aDOT) (14.0) and is second in team’s percentage of air yards (27.7). Metcalf is also second to Lockett in targets (54), receptions (29), and receiving yards (525). While Gordon’s last highly productive season occurred in 2013, he did collect 41 of 71 targets for 737 yards in 2018. If he can remain on the field, the attention that opposing defense must divert toward accounting for Gordon will create additional space for Lockett and Metcalf. This will enable Seattle’s trio of primary receiving options to create enormous headaches for their opponents.

2. 24-year-old Zach Pascal did not register his first target until Week 3. However, the second-year receiver has now received 6+ in three of his last five matchups. That includes the team-high 6 that he attained in Week 9 against the Steelers.

Pascal has also accumulated 72+ yards during three of his last five contests, including the 76 that he accrued against Pittsburgh. That has elevated what had been a paltry 1.0 target-per-game average entering Week 4, to a 4.8 average during that his last five games. T.Y. Hilton‘s troublesome calf injury forced him to miss the Colts’ Week 9 matchup, and appears destined to sideline him for multiple weeks. This has vaulted Pascal into WR1 responsibilities with Indianapolis. Despite his limited involvement earlier this season, Pascal is second on the Colts with 321 receiving yards and should capture the team lead after this week’s matchup with Miami.

He leads Indy in both yards-per reception (16.9) and yards-per-target (11.9.), as the Colts have deployed him almost evenly in the slot (51%) and outside (49%). Pascal has also garnered opportunities near the goal line, as four of his red zone targets have been distributed since Week 7. Jacoby Brissett’s availability is a factor when determining Pascal’s value, although there is currently optimism that Brissett can emerge under center this week against the Dolphins. However, even if Brian Hoyer guides the offense, that should not deter you from considering Pascal as a viable WR3 option. While there is potential for Devin Funchess to resurface in Week 11, Pascal should retain favorable usage and output for the foreseeable future.

3. When the Jaguars return from their Week 10 bye, Nick Foles will recapture the role of Jacksonville’s starter. But as we await his reemergence under center, we can breakdown how Gardner Minshew distributed targets while he spearheaded the aerial attack.

D.J. Chark’s 70 targets lead the Jaguars, followed by Dede Westbrook (55), Chris Conley (46), and Keelan Cole (12). However, when you focus on the numbers from Weeks 7-9, the disparity between Jacksonville’s receiving weaponry diminishes considerably. Chark accumulated 26 targets, including 21 during the past two matchups (5/12/9). But Chris Conley and Keelan Cole became factors within the Jaguar passing attack while Westbrook has contended with neck and shoulder issues. Conley captured 21 targets, which has been built by accruing seven targets in three consecutive games. Cole has also attained 10 targets, including a team-high six in Week 9.

Cole only performed on 53 snaps from Weeks 1-6. But he has accumulated 46 snaps during Jacksonville‘s last two matchups. He has also collected eight of his 10 targets during that sequence while assembling 94 yards and two touchdowns - including his team-best 80 yards in Week 9. When the Jacksonville passing attack reappears in Week 11, Chark should resume WR1 usage and production. Even though Westbrook could resurface in the lineup, that does not diminish the rationale for targeting Conley and Cole from your waiver wires, as they currently have a combined ownership percentage of 19%. Cole is a viable addition in deeper leagues, as he could emerge as a productive resource in the upcoming weeks.

4. As we entered Week 4, Keenan Allen had a stranglehold on the league lead in targets (42), and his season total was a full nine targets higher than second-place Michael Thomas.

Allen had also captured 29 of those passes while stockpiling 404 yards (134.6 per-game) during that sequence. Allen was clearly on a blistering pace, that would have equated to 192 targets, 136 receptions, and 1,808 yards. He was also fourth overall in percentage share of team’s air yards (45.92) and was tied for third with seven red zone targets. Unfortunately for Allen owners, the Chargers have played five more contests since that time, and those highly embraceable early-season averages have been eviscerated.

Since Week 4, what had been a 9.6 target-per-game average has dropped to 7 per-game, while that stellar yards-per-game average has also plummeted by an amazing 92.5 yards to just 42.1 from Weeks 5-9. Allen has also been targeted just three times in the red zone since Week 5, after accumulating seven from Weeks 1-3. As Allen was assembling outstanding numbers during those initial three games, Mike Williams was third in each of those categories - (15 targets/8 receptions/157 yards). But since Week 5, Williams has procured more targets than Allen (38/37), while also accumulating more receptions (21/20), and receiving yards (373/205).

William has also accrued more air yards (584/476) and has attained seven of his 10 red zone targets. Allen should deliver several high quality performances as the year progresses, including this week’s matchup with Oakland. But as Williams continues his statistical ascension, a return to the usage and output that Allen experienced in September is unlikely.

5. If you invested a late first-round or early second-round draft pick on JuJu Smith-Schuster, you were anticipating a highly productive season.

That optimism was based upon his outstanding 2018 numbers, when Smith-Schuster finished fourth among all receivers in targets (166), fifth in receptions (111) and receiving yards (1,426), and 10th with 18 receptions of 20+ yards. He also eclipsed 100 yards in eight different contests, finished 12th in air yards (1,445), and was second only to Davante Adams with 29 red zone targets. But the script has changed this season due to a convergence of universally unfavorable factors.

His 10.4 target-per-game average from 2018 has dropped to just 6.4 this season. He is currently 40th in targets (51), 30th in receptions (33), 30th in receiving yards (459), and has only been targeted five times in the red zone. He has also failed to exceed 16 yards in three of his last five matchups, and is on pace to collect 66 receptions, and accumulate 920 yards. That is certainly not a level of usage and output that owners signed up for, and there is limited rationale that indicates a statistical resurgence is looming.

Ben Roethlisberger will not be under center this season. Antonio Brown will not attract the attention of opposing coordinators, nor will he garner coverage from multiple defenders that open space for Smith-Schuster to run his routes. The Steelers will need to build an offensive strategy that is predicated on the strengths and limitations of Mason Rudolph. This will include consistent targeting of their running backs (James Conner 4,4 per-game/Jaylen Samuels 4,7 per-game). That will result in more matchups that will perpetuate the discouragement of Smith-Schuster owners.

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