RADIO
Corey Davis was a highly drafted wide receiver who hasn't lived up to expectations so far. Gage Bridgford examines Davis' value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
The Tennessee Titans drafted Corey Davis fifth overall in the 2017 draft to be their number one wide receiver, and they've received mixed results since making that selection. He's put a few good games, such as his nine catch, 161 yards with a touchdown performance he put up last year against the Philadelphia Eagles. The unfortunate part though has been that those games have been very rare through two seasons.
Davis put up elite numbers during his time in college as a four-year starter, but the main criticism against him was whether or not he could do against upgraded competition coming from the MAC. Since joining the pros, that issue has remained. Against elite cornerbacks such as Jalen Ramsey of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Casey Hayward of the Los Angeles Chargers, he isn't able to generate a lot of separation and produce despite the matchup.
Heading into the third season of his career, he's hitting a turning point for himself in football and in the fantasy world. In dynasty start-ups or ones that are already going, you have to decide whether Davis is a player worth owning, or if you want to let him be owned by someone else. I'm here to help you do that work with the research I've put together.
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Overview
Corey Davis
Team: Tennessee Titans
College: Western Michigan
Height/Weight: 6'3", 209 pounds
2010 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 5
Case to Buy
One of the biggest issues for Davis in his career has been the health of quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota hasn't played 16 games in any of his four seasons, and he struggled to get through the 14 games that he played last season. Mariota is an average at best starter, and the drop-off behind him is so steep that it hurts Davis' value on the field. Mariota is getting a full off-season of rest to get healthy, which automatically boosts the stock of Davis.
Another issue for Davis has been being the lone weapon that opposing defenses have to focus on. Last season, the team's second-best receiving threat, tight end Delanie Walker, went down in week one and was lost for the season. He'll be back, and the team has also added Adam Humphries to the wide receiver room to help take some of the heat off of Davis. Adding more players to the mix can take some targets away, but it also takes the defensive attention away from him as well.
Davis has shown the ability to be productive during his time in college. He's the all-time leader in college receiving yards, and you don't do that by being an average-at-best player. He isn't the fastest or shiftiest guy on the field, but he does know how to get room to catch as his 3.1 yards of separation was better than superstars like Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams. Davis' stock may be low, but that's the exact reason that you should be looking to add him. He's only going to get better with time.
Case to Sell
Through two seasons, Davis has put up over 100 receiving yards in a game just twice! While one of those games came against an elite cornerback in Stephon Gilmore of the New England Patriots, the other came against an Eagles team that was trotting out multiple backup corners. Davis has proven through two years in the pros that he can't consistently perform against elite defenses, and that's what the team needs him to do as their number one wideout.
Mariota should be healthy this year, but, if he hasn't been healthy through four seasons, why is that going to suddenly flip this season? He plays with a running style that can leave him vulnerable to hits as a result. While the recently acquired Ryan Tannehill is an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert, it's not that great. The Titans also prefer running to passing. They had a pretty even balance last season, but they are built to be a ground-bound team rather than a high-octane offense like some others in the NFL.
Davis saw 112 targets last year, but he only caught 65 of them. He has a career-catch percentage of just 55.2 percent. He's the number one receiver in a decent offense, but he doesn't perform like it. He's also not the red-zone threat that he was in college. He had 52 touchdowns in college, but he only has four through two seasons in the pros. Davis was drafted to be a number one wideout, but, unless something drastically changes, he's likely going to be no better than a wide receiver two has his career plays out.
Final Verdict
Davis is an interesting case, that takes a lot of thought to determine where you fall on him. If you own Davis, it's probably a little difficult to sell him considering what you likely had to invest in him on draft night. I think that acquiring him would actually come somewhat easy with a reasonable owner. If you're a little shallow at wide receiver, and you don't want to get any of the rookie wideouts coming in, offering a second-round pick or an RB2/WR2 to his current owner could net you a guy with tremendous upside.
Buy low; Hold as a seller
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