Second-Half Successes to Buy

Brant Chesser examines fantasy baseball risers and buys for the second half of the 2018 MLB season based on recent hot performances.

As we enter the final six weeks of the season, we will look at our rosters to see which players are performing at their best.

With a look at the data since the All-Star break, there are several names to target.

We will look to roster the players that best fit our plans and categorical needs down the stretch. In the last 30 days, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Gerrit Cole are in the top ten in pitching WAR. Here are some other names to consider to help our fantasy teams move up categories in our fantasy baseball leagues.

Hot Performances to Buy

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

With his top-100 pick status, Luis Castillo (RHP, CIN) disappointed fantasy owners in the first half with a 5.49 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 103.1 IP. The right-hander owned a 38% hard-contact rate with a 34% FB% and 18% hr/f before the break. He posted a 4.77 FIP and 4.02 xFIP during the first half.

Improving his control in his last eight starts has helped his efforts. In the second half, he has increased his K% from 21.5% to 27.7%. Cutting his walk rate in half to 1.50 BB/9 has contributed to a 6.6 K/BB in his last 30 IP. His change-up has created swings and misses (26.1 SwStr%) in 2018, as hitters are chasing it out of the zone with a 53.1 O-Swing%. He owns a 2.86 FIP, 3.10 xFIP, and 2.70 ERA during the last 30 days with starts against three top-ten offenses in Arizona, Washington, and St. Louis.

When looking for value over the next six weeks, fantasy owners should target Castillo's home starts. While he carries a 40% hard-contact rate at Great American Ball Park, his 27.7 K%, 10.2 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 at home are worth a start in all formats. His 3.69 home ERA and 1.10 home WHIP can help with ratios, and his 3.55 FIP and 3.22 xFIP claim that his home success isn't fluky.

Even though a 63.1 LOB% hasn't helped him in away games, his K% drops to 17.8 on the road. His 3.3 BB/9 and 2.1 K/BB add more risk in away starts, and his 5.24 away FIP, 4.48 away xFIP, and 1.52 away WHIP can inflate ratios down the stretch. For those fantasy owners in daily-lineup leagues, they may look to sit Castillo on the road. If looking for strikeouts and ratio help at home, Castillo can provide both in his starts at Great American Ball Park.

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies

In the last 30 days, German Marquez (RHP, COL) ranks 12th amongst SP with a 1.0 WAR. In his last 34.2 IP, he has posted a 10.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 44.2 GB%, and 2.60 ERA. With more than a strikeout an inning, the right-hander can provide strikeouts down the stretch. His curveball (18.0 SwStr%) and slider (18.2 SwStr%) have opposing hitters swinging out of the zone 40% of the time against both offerings.

His strong run featured a strong start at Houston, where he allowed one ER in seven IP while striking out seven. As with the start at Houston, the right-hander has been worth using on the road. His walks lower from 3.8 BB/9 at Coors Field to 2.44 BB/9 in away outings. Although a .246 away BABIP has helped his cause, his 3.32 away FIP, 3.48 away xFIP, and 1.00 away WHIP say he can contribute to lowering a staff's ratios in away matchups.

While fantasy owners will probably want to avoid Marquez's 6.42 home ERA during the week of August 20-26, a .381 BABIP has played a role in his inflated home ratios. He currently has a 4.90 home FIP and 3.81 home xFIP. Marquez can help with ratios and strikeouts in away games in late August and September.

Hitters

On the hitting side, there are a few names that have stayed hot over the last 30 days. Matt Chapman, Rougned Odor, and Ronald Acuna lead the majors in offensive WAR during that span. Those teams that are looking for some pop and speed can turn to Aaron Hicks and Cedric Mullins II.

Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees

This week, Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) already has 20 HR and ten SB in 2018. Over the last 30 days, he has backed a 6.3 offensive WAR with four HR, two SB, 21 R, and 14 RBI.

He has improved his hard-contact rate from 30.8% in 2017 to 41.1% in 2018. His patience has paid off in OBP leagues, as he has more walks (23.2 BB%) than strikeouts (18.8 K%) over the last 30 days. With a spot in a lineup of the second-best offense in the majors, Hicks can continue to add counting stats to a roster. His 142 wRC+ is the 16th-highest in the AL over the last month. He's not just a product of Yankee Stadium, as he has ten home HR and ten away HR. Successfully stealing ten bases in 12 stolen base attempts bodes well for a few more bags over the next six weeks.

He has the skills to match Steamer's projection of five HR, three SB, 19 R, and 17 RBI.

Cedric Mullins II, Baltimore Orioles

While it's an extremely small sample size, Cedric Mullins II (OF, BAL) had a 2.6 offensive WAR over the last seven days. He has pulled 48% of his balls in play, and his 30% hard-contact rate has contributed to one HR. Although his .400 BABIP from last week won't last, he has made contact 96% of the time against RHP with a 1.130 OPS in 24 at-bats. With playing time in his future over the final six weeks, the outfielder can add two-three HR to a roster with RBI and R totals in the double-digits.

Even though he was caught stealing in his only stolen base attempt, he stole 12 bases in 12 tries in AAA, and he stole nine bases in ten attempts at AA-Bowie this year. If our fantasy teams are looking for a handful of steals, Mullins has the speed to match Steamer's projection of four SB for the rest of the season. Drawing four walks in 31 at-bats has resulted in a 11.1 BB%, and he drew 22 walks in 240 AAA at-bats.

Owners in a deeper league can look to add Mullins' across-the-board production for a title run. Currently, he is only owned in 14% of CBS fantasy leagues.

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