Best-Ball Rankings Analysis (June) - Quarterback

June 29, 2018

Quarterback tiered rankings analysis for best-ball (MFL10) leagues. Pierre Camus analyzes RotoBaller's staff QB ranks for MFL10 drafts in the 2018 NFL season to determine ADP values, risers, and fallers.

At Rotoballer, we are MFL10 fanatics. So much so, that we assembled our very own Best-Ball rankings at each position. This will help you formulate a plan as you proceed through your upcoming MFL10 drafts. Our rankings also include tiers in order to provide you with a more detailed breakdown on which players you should target for your rosters at each draft spot.

This article will focus on the quarterbacks, who present a variety of strategic opportunities in MFL10 drafts. If you understand different methods of roster construction, then you know that you should always own either two or three QBs at the end of your draft.

In best-ball leagues, selecting the right players is crucial because of the lack of trades or waivers. Knowing which signal callers to hitch your wagon onto can make or break your season. Now, allow me to introduce you to our most recent best-ball rankings at the quarterback position.

Quarterback Best-Ball Rankings

Tier 1

Aaron Rodgers will be the first QB off the board in almost every draft this year and MFL10s are no exception. His current ADP sits at 49, which is almost identical to our RotoBaller ranking. You certainly don't need to pull the trigger early on any quarterback this year, but if you want Rodgers, don't wait past the fourth round. Russell Wilson is the only one relatively close to his status and barely ekes into the first tier. As the top-scoring fantasy QB last year, it might make sense to wait a round and grab Wilson instead. While Wilson only had three 300-yard passing games, he had five games of three or more touchdowns and three more games where he accounted for two passing TDs and a rushing score. The great separator here is Jimmy Graham, who departs Seattle as Wilson's favorite red zone target and heads to Green Bay to play with Rodgers instead.

Tier 2

Deshaun Watson will be taken right after Wilson for the most part, which is about right for this format. Outside of dynasty leagues, Watson doesn't need to be seen as the overall QB3, but his propensity for big plays and airing it out serves him perfectly in best-ball. Watson's health isn't what fantasy owners should be worried about - it's that of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. The Texans were forced into shootouts all season long because of their decimated defense and need to come from behind quite often. With all pieces in place, it could be a return to more pedestrian numbers for Watson. He still has one of the best receivers in the world in DeAndre Hopkins and a valuable deep threat in Will Fuller, so don't worry too much about his regression.

You know what you're getting with Tom Brady and, for the most part, with Cam Newton. Eagles QB Carson Wentz, on the other hand, is going to be a wild card. He broke out, then he broke down. Wentz may or may not be ready for Week 1, may or may not be brought along slowly if Nick Foles keeps winning, and may or may not keep up his prolific 7.5% TD% from his sophomore season. Our best early guess is that he plays against Atlanta to start the season, but is asked to do a bit less and doesn't have quite the same red zone efficiency in terms of scoring. He could be a bargain if fellow leaguemates harbor enough concern to let him slip outside the top 100, but he shouldn't be drafted ahead of the old reliables mentioned above.

Tier 3

Kirk Cousins would figure to jump up in value now that he's on a Super Bowl contender with two All-Pro caliber receivers. He's currently being drafted around pick 102, although we think he's worth grabbing at 86. Minnesota will be less reliant on the pass than Washington, but what Cousins lacks in volume could be made up for in efficiency. He completed a league-leading 69.8% of his passes two seasons ago and could be just as effective with the Vikes.

Speaking of efficiency, Drew Brees. He posted a career-high and NFL record 72% completion percentage, but his numbers were actually a bit disappointing to fantasy owners, as he finished as the QB10 using standard scoring rules due to a decline of nearly 1,000 passing yards. He put up just three 300-yard passing efforts and only notched three TDs once all year, unbelievably. Brees is a rock solid, high-floor QB in redraft leagues, but he can't be considered a top-five quarterback in best-ball leagues any longer. If you can grab him as the eighth or ninth QB off the board and pair him up with a more volatile asset later on, he can still be worth your attention.

Tier 4

If you want to be the guy in your draft who really waits on the quarterback position, you'll wind up with one of these players between rounds 9-11. There are definite dice rolls here with Andrew Luck and freshly suspended Jameis Winston, who will likely be bumped down in our next batch of rankings. There are also known commodities that present some level of risk due to age, such as Big Ben and Old Man Rivers. All told, Jimmy G might be the player to target here, as he has shown almost no semblance of risk in terms of health, performance, or team situation. If you make a risk-reward pick with your QB1, then it's wise to grab another high-floor player shortly after, such as Goff or Ryan in the following tier.

Tier 5

Matt Ryan will never recapture the magic of his 2016 MVP season, but that's OK. He'll give you an automatic 4,000+ yards, 20+ touchdowns, and there's something to be said for the fact that he hasn't missed a game over the past eight seasons and has been the starter in 158 of 160 possible career starts. Ryan is the logical backup to an Andrew Luck or Jameis Winston who are sure not to play a full schedule.

Jared Goff may still not get enough credit for his breakout 2017 season. He threw for 3,804 yards, a 28/7 TD/INT ratio, and led the league with 12.9 yards per completion. An improved defense could lead to fewer pass attempts, but he wasn't exactly asked to carry a huge load last year anyway. Goff finished 18th in passes attempted, yet landed 10th on the passing yardage chart. A former #1 overall pick entering his third year, Goff may be criminally underrated, although his current ADP of 119 is almost identical to our ranking of him this season.

Tier 6

We're slightly higher on Carr and Trubisky than current drafters, but both are being taken around the same range and should see some degree of variation over the coming weeks. Carr would seem to have downgraded by losing Michael Crabtree in favor an older Jordy Nelson (33), but a motivated and non-suspended Martavis Bryant could be a huge boon to the receiving corps. Regardless of how much you buy into the QB Whisperer thing with Jon Gruden, Carr is a proven commodity that has fought through nagging injuries the last two years. He may not be a threat to break through to top-10 fantasy QB status, but he represents a good value at his current ADP of 145 in MFL10s.

Tier 7

Personally, I'm a believer that Eli Manning has gotten unfair criticism given his team situation. With a healthy OBJ and, finally, a really good actual running back, Manning could be a late-round steal. Last year broke a three-year streak of 4,000-yard passing seasons and he's definitely due for positive regression in his 3.3% TD%.

Case Keenum may see a slow rise in his ADP as we creep closer to the season once fantasy owners see him in action with the duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on the outside. As the 23rd-ranked quarterback for MFL10 purposes, there's little to no risk in drafting him late, unless you still believe Paxton Lynch has a shot to be a starter in this league.

Tier 8 and higher

You could do worse than adding injury-prone QBs Ryan Tannehill or Sam Bradford to your squad because each has the potential to put up plenty of garbage time production in losing efforts. These players are best used in three-QB roster constructs, however, unless your QB1 is Tom Brady or Drew Brees.

If you take a flier on a rookie in the last round or two, who will it be? Lamar Jackson is the obvious choice since he is looking more likely to see the field in Wildcat formations or some variation thereof. It's not likely he supplants Joe Flacco as the starter this year, so don't feel compelled to reach for him. While players like Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold could certainly start some games this year, keep in mind what teams they play for and what their respective ceilings may be.

Want a real QB flier for best-ball leagues? Jacoby Brissett could easily start several games for the Colts again if Andrew Luck isn't himself or gets reinjured. He finished as the QB23 last year, ahead of Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky. When choosing a third quarterback to round out your roster, he may present a more realistic path to points than any of those rookies.

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